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The verbose view β€” lenses, indicators, and per-signal drill-down. Why the top says what it says.

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T5T4Actionable Β· Regime / StateThe AI read and the top market classification β€” the most synthesized reads on the page.

Signals & Health

Regime Β· Context

CAUTIOUS

8d in regime

Fragility

STABLE

how close to a flip

Market Health (now)COINCIDENT

71/100

Favorable, with caution

Alignment

50%

Mixed

The health gauge measures whether the signal plumbing is healthy now; it LAGS price (lag rβ‰ˆ+0.45) and is NOT a buy signal. Alignment is a state check, not a forecast.

2026-08-2414-day regime history2026-09-11

AI-1 β€” Raw Analysis

T5

Stage 1: describes state; makes no call. The raw read the AI-2 verdict is synthesized from β€” no direction, no buy/sell, no track record.

Live regular session in early afternoon with the latest SPY quote near 765.86, essentially at the prior-close call wall of 765.0 and about 0.64% above the zero-gamma level near 760.96. VIX is at 15.63 in a contango structure with balanced 0DTE flow at PCR 1.10 and DIX at 0.489, while participation is narrow at 37.5% above the 50-day average and energy remains in shock with WTI near 99.92 and Brent near 104.65 with Hormuz closed.

news sentiment 4.2 / 10

State read

RegimeCAUTIOUS
GammaDaily dealer gamma positive at 5.71B, below the 5-day average of 6.76B, with price above the flip near 760.96 and essentially at the 765.0 call wall, 0.77% above the 760.0 put wall; live intraday dealer-gamma unavailable with the feed retired
VolVIX 15.63 in Contango (Normal) with 9-day VIX 17.70 for ratio 1.13, term slope -2.92 and 3-month VIX 18.55; VVIX 91.42 for ratio 5.85 and SKEW 147.02 with elevated VIX-SKEW divergence
Dark poolDIX 0.489 marked strong on 2026-09-10 vintage, up 0.035 over 5 days, nowcast 0.4828, divergence state quiet; 0DTE flow balanced at PCR 1.10 on 393.39B notional
BreadthNarrow at 37.5% above the 50-day average and 57.7% above the 200-day average, labeled moderately bearish; sector dispersion 24.61 with Energy 89.5% contrasting Utilities 10.0% and Real Estate 11.5%

Fragility

Air pocketwatch
Re-entrynone
Disorderly stresscalm
Buildup (5d)5 sessions
Risk bandlowechoes the validated drawdown band

Magnitude read (move size, either direction)

Vol nowcast z at -0.12 indicates near-average expected move size in either direction; a research-evidenced read of move size only, explicitly NOT a validated dial and NOT a direction

vol-nowcast z -0.12

Likelihood

Top-8 analogues matched on CAUTIOUS regime with low VIX, strong DIX, tight credit, weak breadth and energy shock; the pack carries no matured forward 1d/3d/5d returns for this cut so no historical resolution rate can be quoted, and n=8 with 4 live plus 4 backfill, all CAUTIOUS, is too thin for inference

n=8

Thin 8-analogue pool with no matured forward returns and retired live dealer-gamma leave positioning context and base rates uncertain.

muse-spark-1.3-contributor Β· opencode_go Β· 09-11 14:01

AI-2 β€” Deterministic vs LLM

T5 Β· experiment

The deterministic read is the public default (the Tape renders it); the LLM is an experiment being compared against it. Both inherit the same validated risk band and magnitude expectation by construction.

cycle Β· read #282 Β· 09-11 09:42

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #280 Β· 09-11 05:26

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #278 Β· 09-10 15:32

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #275 Β· 09-10 11:47

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #273 Β· 09-10 09:41

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #272 Β· 09-10 08:54

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #270 Β· 09-10 04:12

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #268 Β· 09-09 15:31

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

AI-2 Tracker

recorded verdict history

tracking started 2026-07-19 Β· 345 cycles recorded

AI-2 Β· new version Β· direction

GRADED EXPERIMENT β€” no validated edge, may be wrong

1d

β–¬ SIDEWAYS

conf 2/5

3d

β–Ό DOWN

conf 2/5

5d

β–Ό DOWN

conf 2/5

Live scorecard

1d insufficient_data β€” 37 matured, floor 26 per direction label Β· too early to know if this works

3d insufficient_data β€” 35 matured, floor 26 per direction label Β· too early to know if this works

5d insufficient_data β€” 33 matured, floor 26 per direction label Β· too early to know if this works

Graded by label vs each direction's own base rate β€” never a pooled hit-rate. The call shows regardless of the grade; that openness is the point.

TRADE IDEA β€” ungraded, not advice

No obvious trade stands out. The fragility is intraday and event-driven (PPI 9/10, CPI 9/11) while the macro board is calm β€” that's a coin-flip setup with priced-in tail protection (SKEW already expensive), so buying puts here is paying up for what the crowd already owns. I'd rather watch whether SPY holds 760 into the close and react than force a position.

What's happening

The market backdrop is cautious.

  • Live session at 09:40 ET shows SPY quote 765.8 positioned between the prior-close daily 760 put wall and 770 call wall and above the 760.94 zero-gamma level, with daily dealer gamma at +5.71B and Neutral sentiment. VIX is 15.81 in contango while breadth is 38.5% above the 50-day average and dark-pool DIX is 0.489, alongside WTI near $99 and Brent near $104 with Hormuz status CLOSED.

Risk band

LOW

Move size

BIG

Vol-nowcast z

-0.17

Regime

CAUTIOUS

Risk-band rank (low→high)

Risk-band rank (low→high) — hover for per-point value

Move-size rank (small→big)

Move-size rank (small→big) — hover for per-point value

Vol-nowcast z

Vol-nowcast z β€” hover for per-point value
Deterministic vs LLM, per cycle
cycle Β· read #282 Β· 2026-09-11

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #280 Β· 2026-09-11

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #278 Β· 2026-09-10

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #275 Β· 2026-09-10

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #273 Β· 2026-09-10

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move big Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #272 Β· 2026-09-10

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #270 Β· 2026-09-10

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #268 Β· 2026-09-09

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #264 Β· 2026-09-09

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #261 Β· 2026-09-08

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #257 Β· 2026-09-08

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #255 Β· 2026-09-08

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #253 Β· 2026-09-04

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #251 Β· 2026-09-04

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #250 Β· 2026-09-04

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #249 Β· 2026-09-04

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #247 Β· 2026-09-04

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· CAUTIOUS

cycle Β· read #244 Β· 2026-09-03

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #240 Β· 2026-09-03

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #239 Β· 2026-09-03

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #238 Β· 2026-09-03

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #237 Β· 2026-09-03

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #235 Β· 2026-09-02

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #233 Β· 2026-09-02

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· fell back

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM verdict was rejected by the honesty validator this cycle β†’ showing the deterministic fallback.

cycle Β· read #231 Β· 2026-09-02

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #230 Β· 2026-09-02

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #229 Β· 2026-09-02

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #227 Β· 2026-09-01

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #226 Β· 2026-09-01

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #223 Β· 2026-09-01

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #222 Β· 2026-09-01

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #221 Β· 2026-09-01

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #218 Β· 2026-08-31

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #214 Β· 2026-08-31

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #212 Β· 2026-08-31

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #210 Β· 2026-08-28

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #209 Β· 2026-08-28

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #208 Β· 2026-08-28

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #205 Β· 2026-08-28

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #203 Β· 2026-08-27

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #202 Β· 2026-08-27

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #200 Β· 2026-08-27

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #198 Β· 2026-08-27

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #195 Β· 2026-08-26

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #191 Β· 2026-08-26

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #190 Β· 2026-08-26

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #189 Β· 2026-08-26

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #188 Β· 2026-08-26

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #186 Β· 2026-08-25

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· TRANSITIONAL

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· TRANSITIONAL

cycle Β· read #184 Β· 2026-08-25

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· TRANSITIONAL

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· TRANSITIONAL

cycle Β· read #183 Β· 2026-08-25

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· TRANSITIONAL

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· TRANSITIONAL

cycle Β· read #182 Β· 2026-08-25

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· TRANSITIONAL

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· TRANSITIONAL

cycle Β· read #180 Β· 2026-08-25

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· TRANSITIONAL

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· TRANSITIONAL

cycle Β· read #178 Β· 2026-08-24

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #175 Β· 2026-08-24

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #174 Β· 2026-08-24

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #173 Β· 2026-08-24

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #171 Β· 2026-08-24

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #169 Β· 2026-08-21

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

cycle Β· read #165 Β· 2026-08-21

Deterministic Β· public default

risk low Β· move β€” Β· RISK-ON

LLM Β· rendered

risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON

Forward-grade tracker

Move-size grade: insufficient data β€” 0 matured, floor 26 per band; the grade stays hidden until it is earned Β· not forward-validated yet

Risk-band grade: insufficient data β€” floor 26 per band; the grade stays hidden until it is earned

Trade-idea grade: insufficient data β€” 11 matured ideas, floor 26 per idea lane; the grade stays hidden until it is earned

Caveats: the move-size read is an early, uncalibrated research read. This is a read of today's conditions β€” how risky, and how big a move to expect. No one here has a validated edge on which way the market will go.

T3LensesMulti-signal state lenses β€” a score or state that measures risk/setup, still a measurement, not the verdict.

Positioning & state descriptors

full rail β†’ /tape
T1 Β· T3

Gamma-wall positioning + cascade state. Deterministic state descriptors, honest by design, not predictors. The visual gamma rail moved to The Tape.

Regime Detail — SPY

2026-09-11
Spot$765.40
Call wall$768.00
Put wall$760.00
to call+0.34%
to put-0.71%
ZGL$760.97
to ZGL-0.58%
net-GEX5773.24B
Near grainlive

Positive-gamma zone

Dealer gamma hedging supports at the put wall, resists at the call wall. ZGL is the zero-gamma line β€” above dampens vol, below amplifies. A state read, not a forecast.

distance to flip, 5d β€” hover for per-point valuedistance-to-flip +0.6pp over 5d (healing β€” moving above the flip)

Vol-Regime State

Vol front: STRESSED9d/30d 1.13

Front (9-day) vs 30-day implied vol. An inverted front prices near-term event/stress; the higher the band, the more dealer-flow amplifies moves in BOTH directions over a 1–3d window.

Amplification context β€” not a forecast; direction is yours.

Calm-Lane State

Calm-lane hazard: ELEVATED

1/4 triggers

context: rates stress (MOVE q94) β€” mechanism-grade β€” forward card grades it

The calm-lane (VIX < 18) drawdown-hazard configuration: SPY at/near its gamma flip into a registered catalyst (FOMC / jobs / monthly OPEX), or a long-gamma pin days from expiry. A 1–3d amplification read — the calm-lane sibling of the air-pocket flag.

Live-prior grade β€” forward card pending; amplification context, not a forecast; direction is yours.

Air-Pocket State

Air-pocket: WATCH Β· 2/5buildup 5/5

2/5 triggers Β· price near put wall (0.706% above); breadth non-confirmation (SPY near 20d high, breadth 38.5 < 50 and < trailing median 54.1)

regime-pillar state: breadth at its 10th pct of own history Β· nearest risk-off line 8.5 away

Stress-lane downside-fragility configuration. A 1-day point read is mildly CONTRARIAN (the put wall is usually support); it's fragility SUSTAINED 4–5 of 5 sessions (the buildup tag) that has preceded drawdowns. Deterministic state, not a forecast.

Cascade Tracker

Stage 8/13

Inflation Pressure

Active: 1 of 13

Stress propagates in order: vol β†’ credit β†’ breadth β†’ correlations β†’ liquidity. More lit stages = deeper contagion. A state descriptor.

Drawdown lens β€” full legs

T3 Β· T1
Composite score44 / 100 Β· LOW
1-3d 15% Β· live-prior10d 4420d 4440d 42 Β· weak60d 42 Β· weak
30-Day Risk Trend30 days
Drawdown-risk score, 30 days

Recomputed from stored input legs β€” not a persisted snapshot, not a forecast. Rising = risk building.

Weighted z-score composite, mean -0.241Οƒ over 10 legs. A validated CROSS-REGIME drawdown-SEVERITY gauge (U1 15y): the HIGH band fired in every 2011-2026 bear with 0 calm-year false fires. Coincident, not leading β€” and per-leg 15y trust is uneven (4/10 legs survive per-leg BH-FDR; see the badges). Gamma is now MID-PACK on rank-IC (its strength is quintile tail-lift, not day-ordering).

Within-episode caveat: the edge is BETWEEN-regime discrimination. Inside a named drawdown the composite reads CONTRARIAN (7/8 negative within-episode IC) β€” a HIGH print mid-episode is a severity/state read, NOT a step-aside-before-the-drop timer.

dealer gammaWEAK-EDGE Β· OOS-tested+0.11Οƒ+0.018
real_yield_10ymacro/credit leg+2.304Οƒ+0.256
t10y3m_spreadmacro/credit leg-1.88Οƒ0
ofr_fsi_fundingmacro/credit leg-1.831Οƒ-0.305
nfcimacro/credit leg-1.392Οƒ-0.155
gz_spreadmacro/credit leg-1.104Οƒ-0.061
breakeven_10ymacro/credit leg+1.055Οƒ+0.117
hy_oasmacro/credit leg-0.881Οƒ-0.098
ebpmacro/credit leg-0.791Οƒ-0.044
breakeven_5ymacro/credit leg+0.273Οƒ+0.03
Beta lane Β· below-flipΞ² switch Β· experimental
Canonical (authoritative)
44 Β· LOW
mean -0.241Οƒ Β· 10 legs
Beta (+ below-flip)
42.1 Β· LOW
Ξ” -1.9 Β· 11 legs

Beta agrees with canonical (LOW) β€” no band flip, no Tape asterisk.

below gamma flipbeta-1Οƒ-0.1

below-flip = SPY below its zero-gamma flip (dealer hedging amplifies downside). The vendor series scored the strongest single drawdown signal, but the live column is forward-only with no drawdown episode yet to re-validate β€” so it rides BETA only. Promotion folds it into the canonical composite via a one-line config change (beta_legs). Display-only; never a health-score, regime, alert, or AI-brief input.

Beta vs canonical Β· history30 active days
Band differs from canonical0 / 30 Β· 0%

How often the below-flip leg moved the band over the window β€” the promotion-evidence tally. A leg that rarely flips the band (or, once a drawdown regime tests it, flips it the wrong way) isn't worth folding into canonical. Forward-only column, so the active-day count grows from capture; tracked against the prereg gate (research/planning/prereg_below_flip_wiring_2026-06-29.md). Display-only.

AI Capital Cycle

what is this β†’
T3 Β· T1

25-wire mechanical trigger composite across silicon / power / demand cascade tracks converging on a single-file sequence. A deterministic STATE descriptor β€” never scored, never a conviction or sizing input, never an alert.

elevated3 fired
Silicon
1/1/4
Power
0/0/3
Demand
0/0/2
Sequence
1/3/12
Leading
1/1/4
IDTitlePosStatusDetailDate
T1CoWoS lead time normalizesS1ARMEDfar β€” 52-78wk booked through mid-20272026-07-07
T2Nvidia GPU lead time normalizesS1ARMEDfar β€” 36-52wk lead times2026-07-07
T3Power-equipment leads shorten 2 quartersP1ARMEDlengthening β€” leads moving the wrong direction2026-07-07
T4Power reservation cancellationsP2ARMEDnone visible2026-07-07
T5H100 1yr rental rate sustained below thresholdD2ARMED$2.99/hr (2026-08) -> $3.18/hr (2026-09) β€” 0 of 2 months below $1.70/hr2026-09-11
T6Frontier token price cut without capability jumpD2AMBERfrontier price cut >50% detected (openai -93%) β€” capability-jump judgment needed2026-08-06
T7Datacenter/GPU ABS spreads widenD3ARMEDorderly-to-first-cracks β€” +150bps NOT confirmed2026-08-06
T8GPU collateral call or failed dealD3-4ARMEDnone found through 08-06 (search-constrained negative)2026-08-06
T9Useful-life shortening (any filer)D4ARMEDno useful-life change across 4 filer(s) with 2+ filings2026-08-12
T10Hyperscaler capex guide-downD5AMBERcapex/OCF flagged: AMZN 1.19x, GOOGL 1.15x, ORCL 1.13x2026-08-06
T11Compute-resale confirmation (Meta divergence test)D0ARMEDstill OBSERVED-UNCONFIRMED β€” Meta not launched, divergence test pending2026-08-06
T12Circular-stake monetizationD3ARMEDnone visible2026-07-07
T13NVDA inventory growth exceeds revenue growthS2FIREDinv +22.4% vs rev +17.9% q/q β€” 2 of 22026-07-26
T14Token consumption growth deceleratesDM1ARMEDbaseline set: ~33T tok/wk, 4-5x YoY β€” NOT firing2026-07-07
T15Enterprise AI-attach softnessDM2ARMEDholding (low conf.) β€” but base rates grim: 88-95% pilot failure, 42% abandonment, Gartner 40% cancel-risk by 20272026-07-07
T16Neocloud insider selling clusterleadingFIREDCRWV: 9 distinct insiders selling in trailing 90d2026-09-10
T17AI IPO window quality degradesleadingARMEDopen with first crack β€” priced above range, then broke2026-08-06
T18DC colo lease-rate growth negativeleadingARMEDFIRST READING: EXPANDING β€” anti-trigger; two decel watch-items for next quarter2026-08-06
T19GPU secondary market liquid discountS-cross-checkAMBERAMBER β€” market thickened, >40% off at the low end; reading contested2026-08-06
T20Private-credit DC inflows accelerateleading-invertedAMBERAMBER 08-06 β€” fire reverted on failed primary confirm: $61B was cumulative stock, not flow; pace AT the $30-40B projection (Q1 $9.5B β‰ˆ $38B ann.), not beyond2026-08-06
T21OpenAI funding cadence flat/down or gapD3-earlyARMEDno down round β€” last round priced UP; Oracle ramp not visible until 20272026-08-06
T22SPCX lockup calendarsupply-mechanicsCALENDARfirst 20% tranche LIVE NOW; Musk locked to Jun 20272026-08-06
T23Loop commitment cuts (2nd participant)D0-D3-bridgeFIREDFIRED x1 β€” OpenAI Stargate $1.4T to $600B + Abilene scrap (May 2026); 2nd instance from different participant = pattern2026-07-07
T24Off-capex migration / lease reclassificationD5-visibilityAMBERAMBER β€” MSFT not-yet-commenced leases $92.7B -> $329.1B YoY (3.55x) on a 15->25yr life extension2026-08-06
T25PJM capacity-market scarcity reversesP2ARMEDfar β€” scarcity binding: 3 straight cap-clears + 2 straight RTO-wide reliability shortfalls2026-08-10
SPCX/NVDA Ratio2026-09-11
0.670+6.815% Β· 20d

SPCX close Γ· NVDA close β€” the AI-buildout narrative-to-cash-flow spread. Pure data carrier, not scored, not a lens. 20d change is computed on read (never persisted); needs 21 trading rows of history β€” reads "accruing" until then.

Vol-Nowcast (MAGNITUDE)

forward Β· research
Forward move-size read-0.17Οƒ

A research-evidenced FORWARD carrier of move SIZE only (never direction) β€” positive = elevated forward realized-vol risk. NOT a validated or scored dial: the 2nd-regime falsifier is still OPEN. Accruing a live forward-graded series since ~2026-06-19, so the history is thin. When it abstains it reads "accruing β€” no read yet", never a fake 0.

Tripwires

mechanical

Mechanical "what would change the read" β€” each wire is armed until its threshold trips. State only, never a forecast.

Brent energy shocktriggered
VIX leaves the calm lanearmed
VIX stressarmed
SPY reclaims ZGL (30-min-hold PROXY)triggered
Put wall lossarmed
Carry unwind β€” BoJ 9/17-18 windowarmed

Nowcast Grades

forward-graded

Standing forward-grade verdicts per nowcast carrier β€” graded against the print/state that later arrives. pass / falsified / insufficient_data.

hy_oas1348 maturedpass
stlfsi412 maturedinsufficient data
gex_flip3896 maturedfalsified
nfci8 maturedinsufficient data
dix6 maturedinsufficient data

since 2026-09-01 (spec v2); 3,828 prior pairs under the superseded spec

Dealer-Gamma Grade

forward-graded

Does the LIVE intraday dealer-gamma read SHARPEN the forward 10d max-drawdown read BEYOND the free daily net_gex_rank baseline? PRIMARY stat = the INCREMENTAL partial rank-IC (the live risk-z, partialling out the daily leg). keep_lean / circumstantial / kill per the locked prereg β€” only a wrong-signed or vanished incremental IC kills. The live read is forward-only from 2026-06-24, so this window holds no drawdown regime yet: a keep_lean would be calm-only, provisional.

incremental partial-IC β€”0/40 maturedinsufficient data

Warming β€” 0 of 40 matured obs. The live read accrues forward from 2026-06-24; the first real verdict lands once the sample clears the checkpoint.

Matcher detail

T1 Β· T2

Drill-down for the base-rate matcher. (RT-2: the matcher still weights DIX/GEX at full weight despite its own audit ranking them noise β€” recorded, not chased mid-cleanup.)

Track record (365d): 56.1% direction Β· Brier 0.2465 Β· MAE 1.177pp Β· n=11591

Today's state β€” bucketed context for the analog match; in soft mode analogues are ranked by weighted distance, not exact bin agreement

cautiousvix lowdix strongcredit tightbreadth weakscore highgex pospcr balancedenergy shockcot neutralaaii neutralvts backwardationcorr deep negalign okbe mid

How often it looks like this β€” forward returns across the matched analogue days (a rate always carries its n; relocated from /tape, tape-triage PR-C)

1-Day Fwd-0.13% Β± 1.21%CI -0.36 / +0.150.9% up
3-Day Fwd0% Β± 2.26%CI -0.46 / +0.4258.9% up
5-Day Fwd+0.36% Β± 2.52%CI -0.09 / +0.8158.7% up

Sample: 96 days, weighted to 40 after recency

Signal Health β€” full breakdown

COINCIDENTT3 Β· T1

Conditions gauge drill-down. The score LAGS price (lag r≈+0.45) β€” a state read, not a forecast. The table is the canonical 19-component breakdown; the trends are score history, never an extrapolation.

IntradayHealth score 71 over 48 readingswithin-session direction of conditions β€” not a price cue
SignalCurrentPoints
DIX0.4897/7
GEX+5.7B7/7
HY OAS2.70%8/8
Breakeven2.46%5/6
Breadth38%1/7
Vol TermContango (Normal)5/5
LiquidityAdequate5/7
SPY/ZGLAbove5/5
BTC$77,1480/0
0DTE PCR1.145/5
EnergyRISING4/10
Stagflation305/8
SectorsN/A0/3
CorrelationsSPY/VIX -0.927.2/10
SKEW/VIX1472/3
Real Yield2.46%0/3
Copper/Gold-0.1%1/2
USD/JPY-1.6%1/2
HYG0.8x2/2

30-Day Score Trend

Score history only β€” no forecast or extrapolation. Range 65–88.

Conviction (heuristic)

demoted Β· RT-1
51%Frontend estimate = 70% health-score-band-distance + 30% streak saturation. Not a validated quantity, not persisted, not anchored to any backend value (RT-1) β€” a soft "how deep in this regime" cue, nothing more.
T2IndicatorsSignal-alignment indicators β€” each fuses signals into one bullish/neutral/bearish read versus price direction.

Signal Alignment

?
Mixed

Each dot = does this signal family's reading agree with realized price? A state check, not a forecast.

β–Ό SPY -0.9%5d
50%

aligned

3/3/5

agree / disagree / neutral

↓ -30pp vs 5d ago· deteriorating

+1pp vs CAUTIOUS 90d avg · typical for regimeday 5 of new baseline (avg 49%)

Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.

Leading / Structural

Lagging / Confirming

[energy_shock]
T1SignalsSingle reads that carry meaning β€” raw-that-matters or one calculation on raw; the widest tier a human reads directly.

Full signal breakdown

Every individual signal feeding the read β€” same detail as the legacy dashboard.

Sparkline window
1D3D7D14D30D
T1

Dark Pool22h

Dark PoolΒ·BEARISHΒ·DIX 0.489

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Buy Ratio)?PRIOR CLOSE

0.489

β€”

Strong institutional buying in dark poolsas of Sep 10

GEX (Gamma Exp.)?

5.71B

β€”

Dealers are long gamma β€” expect lower volatility and mean reversion

DIX ≥ 0.48 = strong buying. GEX positive = lower vol (mean reversion). GEX negative = higher vol (trend amplification).

T1

Credit Conditions1d

CreditΒ·BULLISHΒ·HY OAS 2.66 (same-day nowcast)

HY OAS Spread?

2.70%

hy oas Β· 2438 pts

Normal

High yield credit spread over Treasuries. Rising = stress.as of Sep 10

BBB Spread?

0.98%

bbb spread Β· 2438 pts

Tight

Investment-grade corporate spread. Widening = risk aversion.

2s10s Spread?

0.39%

two ten spread Β· 2438 pts

Flat-ish

Yield curve slope. Negative = inverted (recession signal).

NFCI?WEEKLY

-0.564

nfci Β· 30 pts

Very loose

Chicago Fed NFCI. Negative = loose conditions; above zero = tighter-than-average.report Sep 4

HYG Volume Ratio?

0.77

hyg volume ratio Β· 30 pts

Light volume

HYG volume vs 20d avg. >1.5 = unusual credit activity.

Credit spreads widen before equities sell off. HY OAS > 5% = distress. Watch BBB for downgrade risk near investment-grade cliff.

T1

Breadth9m

BreadthΒ·BEARISHΒ·Breadth (50d) 38

Sector Breadth & Rotation

84%

Energy(XLE)

Favorable
+0pp

16/19

74%

Comm Services(XLC)

Favorable
+24pp

14/19

60%

Technology

Favorable
+11pp

39/65

56%

Health Care(XLV)

Leaning
-28pp

30/54

34%

Financials(XLF)

Cautionary
-56pp

23/68

33%

Materials(XLB)

Cautionary
-21pp

8/24

32%

Staples(XLP)

Cautionary
-32pp

11/34

29%

Discretionary(XLY)

Adverse
-27pp

17/59

19%

Industrials(XLI)

Adverse
-40pp

13/67

19%

Real Estate(XLRE)

Adverse
-38pp

5/26

10%

Utilities(XLU)

Adverse
-7pp

3/30

Ring = % of stocks above 50d SMA. Sparkline = 30-day trend. Wide divergence between sectors = rotation risk.

T1

Positioning

AAII Bull-Bear Spread?WEEKLY

-1.3

β€”

Bull 38% Β· Bear 39% Β· Neutral 23%

Survey runs Wed-Wed; results published Thursday morning ET. Extreme bear (< -20) = contrarian bullish.report Sep 9

COT Specs Z-Score?WEEKLY

+0.70

β€”

Net -75,941

Friday 15:30 ET release covering Tuesday data. Z < -1.5 = extreme short (contrarian bullish).report Sep 1

Squeeze Setup?

none

β€”

0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active

Composite of 4 signals (deep-negative GEX, weak breadth, AAII extreme bear, COT extreme short). Diagnoses fuel, not direction.

T1

Energy & Commodities2m

EnergyΒ·BEARISHΒ·Energy RISING

Crude Oil

RISING

WTI Crude

$100.24β–²

5d: +9.6%

Brent Crude

$104.84β–²

Spread: $4.60

XLE (Energy Sector)

$65.03β–Ό

UNG (Nat Gas)

$10.18β–Ό

Refining & Fuel

3-2-1 Crack Spread

$54.5/bblβ–Ό

Very wide

RBOB Gasoline?

$3.1300/gal

Heating Oil?

$4.7900/gal

Crack spread = refiner margin. Wide spreads mean high fuel prices vs crude. Watch for demand destruction signals above $40/bbl.

Strait of Hormuz

CLOSEDsince 2026-02-28 · 195d ago
Monitor ↗

Vessels Underway?

Vessels β€” last 30 cycles

6

of 60 normal daily

Transit % of Normal?

Transit % β€” last 30 cycles

7.1%

vs typical daily

DWT Throughput?

DWT throughput β€” last 30 cycles

7.0%

0.7M / 10.3M DWT

War-risk: EXTREME β€” 66.7x normalTanker WS320 (+540%)21% world oil at risk$2.8 billion/day cost
T1

Growth Expectations9m

Growth ExpectationsΒ·NEUTRALΒ·Copper/Gold RoC -0.1

Copper/Gold RoC

?

-0.1(+1)

w2

Ratio 0.016

Rising = growth expectations improving; falling = flight to safety. 20-day rate of change smooths daily noise. Verdict requires confirmation from 10y real yield: cu/au up + accommodative real yield = broad reflation; cu/au up + restrictive yield = commodity push only (NEUTRAL).

T1

Correlations2m

CorrelationsΒ·BULLISHΒ·SPY/Oil Correlation -0.58

10Y Yield

4.97β–²

Dollar Index

99.12β–²

Correlations (20-Day)

PairValueNormalStatus
SPY/VIX?-0.915β€”normal
SPY/DXY?-0.344β€”normal
SPY/TNX?-0.391β€”elevated
SPY/Oil?-0.578β€”stretched
SPY/TYX (30Y)?β€”accruing

Oil shock transmitting into equities β€” energy stress impacting risk assets.

T1

Volatility & Options2m

VolatilityΒ·NEUTRALΒ·VIX 15.7

Volatility Structure

MOVE Index

82

VIX/MOVE Ratio

0.19β–²

SKEW

147(+2)

w3

VVIX

92

VVIX/VIX 5.86

MOVE > 120 = bond market stress. VIX/MOVE falling = equity vol cheap vs rates vol. SKEW > 150 = elevated tail-risk pricing. VVIX tracks vol-of-vol; VVIX/VIX > 6 signals dealer fear.

0DTE SPY Options

Put/Call Ratio

1.14(+5)

w5

Balanced flow

Volume

2,666,715 C / 3,041,742 P

PCR > 1.0 = more puts (bearish hedging). PCR < 0.7 = complacency. 0DTE volume drives intraday gamma effects.

T1

Inflation2m

InflationΒ·NEUTRALΒ·Stagflation Risk 30

Inflation Expectations

Stagflation: MODERATE

5Y Breakeven Inflation

?

2.46(+5)

w6
PRIOR CLOSE

10Y breakeven

?

2.40

PRIOR CLOSE

5y5y breakeven

?

2.34

PRIOR CLOSE

Real Yield (10Y)

?

2.46(+0)

w3
PRIOR CLOSE

Stagflation Score

30(+5)

w8

30 / 100

TIPS breakeven rates reflect market-implied inflation. 5Y5Y forward = long-run expectations. Score combines breakeven levels and curve inversion.

T1

Long End & Treasury Supply2m

state carrier Β· not a scored signal

US long end

PRIOR CLOSE
as of 2026-09-11
30Y yield5.28%
20Y yield5.28%
5Y yield4.61%
10s30s+0.45
5s30s+0.67
30Y real2.98%
30Y breakeven2.30%
Years since higher19.2 yr
15Y percentile99.9%ile
1-month high5.31% on 08-17
All-time highno
SPY / 30Y corrβ€”accruing

Sovereign long end

PRIOR CLOSE
as of 2026-09-09

6/6 at decade highs Β· 2/6 at all-time highs

CountryTenorLevelYrs since higherATH
United States30Y5.28%19.2 yrno
Germany30Y3.99%15.4 yrβ€”
Euro AAA30Y3.77%15.1 yrβ€”
United Kingdom20Y5.65%26.7 yrβ€”
Canadalong4.28%17.8 yrβ€”
Japan30Y4.00%27.0 yrβ€”
Japan40Y4.00%β€”β€”

US supply & auctions

MONTHLY
as of 2026-08-31
Bills share22.77%
12m maturity wall33.84%
12m wall size$10,768.7B
Avg interest rate3.490%
Interest expense (FYTD)$1,267.8B
Total public debt$40.07T

Latest coupon auctions

DateB/CTailIndirDealer
30Y2026-09-102.61x96%ile5.8 bp29%ile79.3%2.2%
10Y2026-09-092.71x6.5 bpβ€”β€”

Tail is a proxy β€” stop minus the auction median yield, not the when-issued tail (no free when-issued series exists).

Who holds the debt

WEEKLY
each row carries its own as-of
HolderLevelChangeAs of
MMF retailβ€”pendingβ€”13wβ€”
MMF total (quarterly)$8,289.6Bβ€”2026-01-01
Fed SOMA Treasuries$4,446.3B+72.613w2026-09-09
Foreign holders (TIC)$9,299.0Bβ€”2026-06-30
Japan (TIC)$1,116.7Bβˆ’38.112m2026-06-30
China (TIC)$633.4Bβ€”2026-06-30
Foreign-official custody$2,590.1Bβˆ’43.313w2026-09-09
T1

Carry / USD-JPY2m

Carry RiskΒ·BULLISHΒ·USD/JPY 5d -1.6%, MOVE 82

USD/JPY 5d RoC

-1.6(+1)

w2

Spot 153.71

Yen strengthening β€” carry unwind risk

Yen carry trade unwinds show up as USD/JPY -2% or more in 5 days. Sustained strength = risk-off de-leveraging pressure.

T1

Liquidity2m

LiquidityΒ·NEUTRALΒ·Adequate

Fed Liquidity

Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP)?

$5,852B

net liquidity Β· 2438 pts

WALCL?

$6740.6B

β€”

TGA?

$883.3B

β€”

RRP?

$5.3B

β€”

Adequate

Rising net liquidity = more cash in system = bullish. TGA/RRP draining = liquidity injection.

Global Liquidity & BTC

BTC (Liquidity Proxy)?

$77,148

btc price Β· 2438 pts

Neutral

Global CB Balance Sheets?

$16,904B

ECB: $6,858B?BOJ: $4,194B?

BTC tracks global liquidity. Rising CB balance sheets = more liquidity = risk-on.

T0RawIngested values with zero derivation β€” what the source said; pure data carriers.

Tilt β€” Β·Flow 0 Β·OI Ξ” β€” Β·participation: mixed

raw curves below ↓

Tilt and OI Ξ” are directional positioning reads; intensity / flow are direction-blind participation. The participation word is a deterministic state read, not a forecast.

What Intraday options-flow participation: dealer tilt, cumulative flow, OI Ξ”, and a deterministic character word.

So-what Mixed character β€” no clear accumulation/distribution edge; let price + the rail lead, not the flow word.

Changed intraday flow present; dealer-tilt leg unavailable to diff

Intraday flow curves β€” raw per-cycle series (tap to expand)

Intraday Flow Curves — SPY

0 min Β· today

Intraday flow curves are unavailable right now β€” the flow capture did not return a per-minute SPY series. Recovers on the next refresh. The live participation read lives on The Tape.

Today only by design. Intensity and net flow are direction-blind state reads; only Dealer Tilt and OI Ξ” carry directional color. Coincident, not predictive.

More raw carriers ship on the signals API β€” every persisted metric, not just the charted subset.

Alerts

View History →
critical

WTI crude at $100.24 β€” triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.

2m ago· First fired 8m ago
warning

SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.

2m ago· First fired 1h ago
warning

Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.578 with energy in RISING β€” crude shock propagating into equities.

2m ago· First fired 2h ago
warning

Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.

2m ago· First fired 5h ago
info

DIX at 0.489 β€” strong dark pool buying activity.

2m ago· First fired 16h ago
critical

WTI crude at $100.24 β€” energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.

2m ago· First fired 2d ago
warning

Oil spike alert: USO at $153.96 (vs 20d avg 135.62, +2.1Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.

2m ago· First fired 7d ago
warning

SKEW at 147 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.

2m ago· First fired 24d ago
critical

WTI crude at $100.13 β€” triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.

1h ago· First fired 1h ago
warning

SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.

1h ago· First fired 2h ago
critical

WTI crude at $100.10 β€” triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.

1h ago· First fired 1h ago
warning

SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.

2h ago
warning

SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.

3h ago· First fired 4h ago
info

Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-11 β€” EXEL (conviction 70/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=3087)); ILMN (conviction 62/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.

4h ago
info

Screener: KRYS β€” promotion-ready (36d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)).

4h ago
info

Screener: HOG β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 58% (n=3276)). Worth a look.

4h ago
info

Screener: GPN β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 58% (n=3276)). Worth a look.

4h ago
info

Screener: ILMN β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)). Worth a look.

4h ago
info

Screener: QLYS β€” promotion-ready (31d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=6012)).

4h ago
info

Screener: EXEL β€” promotion-ready (101d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=3087)).

4h ago
info

Screener: EXEL β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 70/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=3087)). Worth a look.

4h ago
warning

VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.0 β€” vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.

4h ago· First fired 6h ago
warning

Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bullish trend β€” historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.

5h ago· First fired 5h ago· Re-arms in 42h 52m
warning

Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.

5h ago· First fired 20h ago
warning

SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.

6h ago· First fired 1d ago
warning

3-2-1 crack spread at $63.58/bbl (vs 20d avg 59.24, +1.8Οƒ), floor $35.00/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.

6h ago· First fired 10h ago· Re-arms in 17h 59m
info

SPY (762.45) reclaimed ZGL (761.87) β€” volatility dampening resumes.

9h ago· First fired 137d ago
critical

WTI crude at $101.16 β€” triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.

10h ago· First fired 1d ago
warning

Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

10h ago· Re-arms in 18h 52m
warning

Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~55h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

10h ago· Re-arms in 19h 36m
warning

Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 42 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

14h ago
warning

Data integrity: sovereign_ath_count has printed the same value (2.0) for 5 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

14h ago
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Data integrity: sovereign_decade_high_count has printed the same value (6.0) for 5 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

14h ago
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Data integrity: jp30y_years_since_higher has printed the same value (27.0) for 5 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

14h ago
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Data integrity: uk20y_years_since_higher has printed the same value (26.66) for 5 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

14h ago· Re-arms in 17h 59m
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Data integrity: us30y_1m_high has printed the same value (5.31) for 5 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

14h ago
warning

Data integrity: us30y_at_all_time_high has printed the same value (0.0) for 5 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

14h ago
warning

Data integrity: us30y_years_since_higher has printed the same value (19.18) for 5 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

14h ago
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Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (96.02) for 6 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

14h ago· Re-arms in 17h 59m
warning

Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 105 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

14h ago
warning

Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

14h ago

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60 headlines

Economic Calendar & Earnings

Today

Economic Releases

Consumer Price Index (CPI)
334.131Prev: 332.813

Upcoming

Economic Releases

Retail Sales2026-09-16
Industrial Production2026-09-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index2026-09-22
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)2026-09-30
Employment Situation (Payrolls)2026-10-02

Earnings

JPMEst: $5.89↓0.3%
2026-10-13
GSEst: $16.43↑16.6%
2026-10-13
TSLAEst: $0.45↓0.5%
2026-10-21
MSFTEst: $4.72↑0.1%
2026-10-28
GOOGLEst: $3.01↑0.2%
2026-10-28
METAEst: $6.53↓3.4%
2026-10-28
AAPLEst: $1.98
2026-10-29
AMZNEst: $1.95↑0.2%
2026-10-29
NVDAEst: $2.47↑5.3%
2026-11-17
WMTEst: $0.64↓6.8%
2026-11-19