The Engine
The verbose view β lenses, indicators, and per-signal drill-down. Why the top says what it says.
Signals & Health
Regime Β· Context
TRANSITIONAL
5d in regime
Fragility
ELEVATED
how close to a flip
Market Health (now)COINCIDENT
80/100
Favorable, with caution
Alignment
86%
Strong Alignment
The health gauge measures whether the signal plumbing is healthy now; it LAGS price (lag rβ+0.45) and is NOT a buy signal. Alignment is a state check, not a forecast.
AI-1 β Raw Analysis
T5Stage 1: describes state; makes no call. The raw read the AI-2 verdict is synthesized from β no direction, no buy/sell, no track record.
SPY settled at 738.93 (consolidated tape) after a session that saw price slip below the ZGL/gamma-flip at 740.98 and pin near the inverted put-wall zone. The regime is TRANSITIONAL with strong alignment severity, VIX at 18.74 just above the calm-lane threshold, and dealer-gamma sentiment flagged Bearish. A US-Iran strike pause and oil plunge dominated the news flow, but the market did not rally on the de-escalation; tech underperformed while breadth held at 69.9% above the 50-day SMA. The FOMC decision on July 29 is the dominant near-term calendar catalyst.
news sentiment 4.2 / 10
State read
Fragility
Magnitude read (move size, either direction)
The vol nowcast z-score is -0.009, essentially at baseline β a research-evidenced read of forward MOVE SIZE only (either direction), indicating no elevated realized-vol magnitude is currently signaled. This is explicitly NOT a validated dial and NOT a direction call; the 2nd-regime falsifier remains open with thin live history since ~2026-06-19.
vol-nowcast z -0.01
Likelihood
The analogue matcher found 8 historical matches (4 live, 4 backfill) across a 1,232-day history using 15 matching dimensions under soft mode. All 8 analogues fall in the TRANSITIONAL regime. Forward 1d, 3d, and 5d returns are null for both the aggregate and the regime breakdown, meaning the platform has no matured forward-return data for this specific setup configuration to compute a historical base rate. The sample size of 8 is small, distances range from 0.383 to 0.515 (mean 0.476), and the DIX-band gate was applied (Neutral query band, not relaxed). No forward-resolution probability can be computed from this pool; the analogue evidence is thin and untested for this configuration.
n=8 Β· effective 4.0
The analogue pool is extremely thin (n=8) with all forward returns null, providing no historical base rate for this setup; the daily gamma walls are NULLed due to an impossible inversion, leaving the live option-chain walls as the only wall reference; and multiple key risk inputs (DIX, GEX, NFCI, EBP) are stale by days to weeks, so the drawdown-risk composite and positioning reads rely partially on nowcasts and aging priors.
glm-5.2 Β· opencode_go Β· 07-27 16:17
AI-2 β Deterministic vs LLM
T5 Β· experimentThe deterministic read is the public default (the Tape renders it); the LLM is an experiment being compared against it. Both inherit the same validated risk band and magnitude expectation by construction.
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk low Β· move small Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON
AI-2 Tracker
recorded verdict historytracking started 2026-07-19 Β· 56 cycles recorded
AI-2 Β· new version Β· direction
GRADED EXPERIMENT β no validated edge, may be wrong1d
βΌ DOWN
conf 3/5
3d
βΌ DOWN
conf 3/5
5d
β¬ SIDEWAYS
conf 2/5
Live scorecard
1d insufficient_data β 4/26 matured Β· too early to know if this works
3d insufficient_data β 2/26 matured Β· too early to know if this works
5d insufficient_data β 0/26 matured Β· too early to know if this works
Graded by label vs each direction's own base rate β never a pooled hit-rate. The call shows regardless of the grade; that openness is the point.
Buy SPY puts β specifically the August 1 weekly 738 strike puts. SPY is sitting below the gamma-flip at 740.98 with bearish dealer positioning, a triggered put-wall-loss, and an air-pocket watch sustained for four of five sessions. FOMC on July 29 is likely to add downward pressure if the market is already fragile and positioned bearishly. The 738 strike is just below current price, offering a high-delta way to express a downside move through the FOMC event and into the end of the week.
Graded as: SPY down Β· 4 trading days β vs the underlying's own base rate (scorecard below).
What's happening
The market backdrop is in transition β it's held for 1 day.
- SPY settled at 738.93 (consolidated tape) after a session that saw price slip below the ZGL/gamma-flip at 740.98 and pin near the inverted put-wall zone. The regime is TRANSITIONAL with strong alignment severity, VIX at 18.74 just above the calm-lane threshold, and dealer-gamma sentiment flagged Bearish. A US-Iran strike pause and oil plunge dominated the news flow, but the market did not rally on the de-escalation; tech underperformed while breadth held at 69.9% above the 50-day SMA. The FOMC decision on July 29 is the dominant near-term calendar catalyst.
Risk band
LOW
Move size
unavailable
Vol-nowcast z
-0.01
Regime
TRANSITIONAL
Risk-band rank (lowβhigh)
Move-size rank (smallβbig)
awaiting more cycles
Vol-nowcast z
Deterministic vs LLM, per cycle
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk low Β· move small Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· fell back
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM verdict was rejected by the honesty validator this cycle β showing the deterministic fallback.
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk low Β· move small Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move small Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· RISK-ON
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· rendered
risk elevated Β· move normal Β· TRANSITIONAL
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM Β· fell back
risk low Β· move β Β· TRANSITIONAL
LLM verdict was rejected by the honesty validator this cycle β showing the deterministic fallback.
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· fell back
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM verdict was rejected by the honesty validator this cycle β showing the deterministic fallback.
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· fell back
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM verdict was rejected by the honesty validator this cycle β showing the deterministic fallback.
Deterministic Β· public default
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM Β· fell back
risk low Β· move β Β· RISK-ON
LLM verdict was rejected by the honesty validator this cycle β showing the deterministic fallback.
Forward-grade tracker
Move-size grade: insufficient data β 0/26 matured per band; the grade stays hidden until it is earned Β· not forward-validated yet
Risk-band grade: insufficient data β 0/26 matured per band; the grade stays hidden until it is earned
Trade-idea grade: insufficient data β 1/26 matured ideas; the grade stays hidden until it is earned
Caveats: there isn't enough recent data to size the next move; some inputs flagged data-quality issues; the move-size read is an early, uncalibrated research read. This is a read of today's conditions β how risky, and how big a move to expect. No one here has a validated edge on which way the market will go.
Positioning & state descriptors
full rail β /tapeGamma-wall positioning + cascade state. Deterministic state descriptors, honest by design, not predictors. The visual gamma rail moved to The Tape.
Regime Detail — SPY
2026-07-28Below put wall β unhedged
Dealer gamma hedging supports at the put wall, resists at the call wall. ZGL is the zero-gamma line β above dampens vol, below amplifies. A state read, not a forecast.
Vol-Regime State
Front (9-day) vs 30-day implied vol. An inverted front prices near-term event/stress; the higher the band, the more dealer-flow amplifies moves in BOTH directions over a 1–3d window.
Amplification context β not a forecast; direction is yours.
Air-Pocket State
2/5 triggers Β· dealer gamma bearish (Ξ³-sent Bearish); price at/through put wall (-0.097%)
regime-pillar state: DIX at its 2th pct of own history Β· nearest panic line 0.002 away
Stress-lane downside-fragility configuration. A 1-day point read is mildly CONTRARIAN (the put wall is usually support); it's fragility SUSTAINED 4–5 of 5 sessions (the buildup tag) that has preceded drawdowns. Deterministic state, not a forecast.
Cascade Tracker
Stage 6/13Sector Rotation
Active: 2 of 13
Stress propagates in order: vol β credit β breadth β correlations β liquidity. More lit stages = deeper contagion. A state descriptor.
Drawdown lens β full legs
T3 Β· T1Recomputed from stored input legs β not a persisted snapshot, not a forecast. Rising = risk building.
Weighted z-score composite, mean -0.293Ο over 10 legs. A validated CROSS-REGIME drawdown-SEVERITY gauge (U1 15y): the HIGH band fired in every 2011-2026 bear with 0 calm-year false fires. Coincident, not leading β and per-leg 15y trust is uneven (4/10 legs survive per-leg BH-FDR; see the badges). Gamma is now MID-PACK on rank-IC (its strength is quintile tail-lift, not day-ordering).
Within-episode caveat: the edge is BETWEEN-regime discrimination. Inside a named drawdown the composite reads CONTRARIAN (7/8 negative within-episode IC) β a HIGH print mid-episode is a severity/state read, NOT a step-aside-before-the-drop timer.
Beta agrees with canonical (LOW) β no band flip, no Tape asterisk.
below-flip = SPY below its zero-gamma flip (dealer hedging amplifies downside). The vendor series scored the strongest single drawdown signal, but the live column is forward-only with no drawdown episode yet to re-validate β so it rides BETA only. Promotion folds it into the canonical composite via a one-line config change (beta_legs). Display-only; never a health-score, regime, alert, or AI-brief input.
How often the below-flip leg moved the band over the window β the promotion-evidence tally. A leg that rarely flips the band (or, once a drawdown regime tests it, flips it the wrong way) isn't worth folding into canonical. Forward-only column, so the active-day count grows from capture; tracked against the prereg gate (research/planning/prereg_below_flip_wiring_2026-06-29.md). Display-only.
AI Capital Cycle
what is this β23-wire mechanical trigger composite across silicon / power / demand cascade tracks converging on a single-file sequence. A deterministic STATE descriptor β never scored, never a conviction or sizing input, never an alert.
| ID | Title | Pos | Status | Detail | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | CoWoS lead time normalizes | S1 | ARMED | far β 52-78wk booked through mid-2027 | 2026-07-07 |
| T2 | Nvidia GPU lead time normalizes | S1 | ARMED | far β 36-52wk lead times | 2026-07-07 |
| T3 | Power-equipment leads shorten 2 quarters | P1 | ARMED | lengthening β leads moving the wrong direction | 2026-07-07 |
| T4 | Power reservation cancellations | P2 | ARMED | none visible | 2026-07-07 |
| T5 | H100 1yr rental rate sustained below threshold | D2 | ARMED | $2.80/hr (2026-07) β 0 of 2 months below $1.70/hr | 2026-07-28 |
| T6 | Frontier token price cut without capability jump | D2 | AMBER | frontier price cut >50% detected (openai -98%) β capability-jump judgment needed | 2026-07-07 |
| T7 | Datacenter/GPU ABS spreads widen | D3 | ARMED | orderly | 2026-07-07 |
| T8 | GPU collateral call or failed deal | D3-4 | ARMED | none | 2026-07-07 |
| T9 | Useful-life shortening (any filer) | D4 | AMBER | useful-life language changed (unparsed) β manual read needed | 2026-07-23 |
| T10 | Hyperscaler capex guide-down | D5 | AMBER | capex/OCF flagged: AMZN 1.70x, GOOGL 1.15x, ORCL 1.13x | 2026-07-07 |
| T11 | Compute-resale confirmation (Meta divergence test) | D0 | ARMED | Meta report only β OBSERVED-UNCONFIRMED | 2026-07-07 |
| T12 | Circular-stake monetization | D3 | ARMED | none visible | 2026-07-07 |
| T13 | NVDA inventory growth exceeds revenue growth | S2 | AMBER | inv +20.5% vs rev +19.8% q/q β 1 of 2 | 2026-04-26 |
| T14 | Token consumption growth decelerates | DM1 | ARMED | baseline set: ~33T tok/wk, 4-5x YoY β NOT firing | 2026-07-07 |
| T15 | Enterprise AI-attach softness | DM2 | ARMED | holding (low conf.) β but base rates grim: 88-95% pilot failure, 42% abandonment, Gartner 40% cancel-risk by 2027 | 2026-07-07 |
| T16 | Neocloud insider selling cluster | leading | FIRED | CRWV: 11 distinct insiders selling in trailing 90d | 2026-07-23 |
| T17 | AI IPO window quality degrades | leading | ARMED | healthy (SPCX era) | 2026-07-07 |
| T18 | DC colo lease-rate growth negative | leading | NOT CHECKED | not checked β quarterly manual pass spec'd | 2026-07-07 |
| T19 | GPU secondary market liquid discount | S-cross-check | ARMED | market thin | 2026-07-07 |
| T20 | Private-credit DC inflows accelerate | leading-inverted | ARMED | at baseline | 2026-07-07 |
| T21 | OpenAI funding cadence flat/down or gap | D3-early | ARMED | watching β load-bearing column of the loop | 2026-07-07 |
| T22 | SPCX lockup calendar | supply-mechanics | CALENDAR | first 20% tranche at Q2 earnings (late Jul/Aug 2026); Musk locked to Jun 2027 | 2026-07-07 |
| T23 | Loop commitment cuts (2nd participant) | D0-D3-bridge | FIRED | FIRED x1 β OpenAI Stargate $1.4T to $600B + Abilene scrap (May 2026); 2nd instance from different participant = pattern | 2026-07-07 |
SPCX close Γ· NVDA close β the AI-buildout narrative-to-cash-flow spread. Pure data carrier, not scored, not a lens. 20d change is computed on read (never persisted); needs 21 trading rows of history β reads "accruing" until then.
Vol-Nowcast (MAGNITUDE)
forward Β· researchA research-evidenced FORWARD carrier of move SIZE only (never direction) β positive = elevated forward realized-vol risk. NOT a validated or scored dial: the 2nd-regime falsifier is still OPEN. Accruing a live forward-graded series since ~2026-06-19, so the history is thin. When it abstains it reads "accruing β no read yet", never a fake 0.
Tripwires
mechanicalMechanical "what would change the read" β each wire is armed until its threshold trips. State only, never a forecast.
Nowcast Grades
forward-gradedStanding forward-grade verdicts per nowcast carrier β graded against the print/state that later arrives. pass / falsified / insufficient_data.
No carrier verdicts yet.
Dealer-Gamma Grade
forward-gradedDoes the LIVE intraday dealer-gamma read SHARPEN the forward 10d max-drawdown read BEYOND the free daily net_gex_rank baseline? PRIMARY stat = the INCREMENTAL partial rank-IC (the live risk-z, partialling out the daily leg). keep_lean / circumstantial / kill per the locked prereg β only a wrong-signed or vanished incremental IC kills. The live read is forward-only from 2026-06-24, so this window holds no drawdown regime yet: a keep_lean would be calm-only, provisional.
Warming β 0 of 40 matured obs. The live read accrues forward from 2026-06-24; the first real verdict lands once the sample clears the checkpoint.
Matcher detail
T1 Β· T2Drill-down for the base-rate matcher. (RT-2: the matcher still weights DIX/GEX at full weight despite its own audit ranking them noise β recorded, not chased mid-cleanup.)
Track record (365d): 56.1% direction Β· Brier 0.2465 Β· MAE 1.18pp Β· n=11513
Today's state β bucketed context for the analog match; in soft mode analogues are ranked by weighted distance, not exact bin agreement
Signal Health β full breakdown
COINCIDENTT3 Β· T1Conditions gauge drill-down. The score LAGS price (lag r≈+0.45) β a state read, not a forecast. The table is the canonical 19-component breakdown; the trends are score history, never an extrapolation.
| Signal | Current | Points |
|---|---|---|
| DIX | 0.402 | 1.4/7 |
| GEX | +3.5B | 7/7 |
| HY OAS | 2.79% | 8/8 |
| Breakeven | 2.24% | 5/6 |
| Breadth | 70% | 7/7 |
| Vol Term | Contango (Normal) | 5/5 |
| Liquidity | Adequate | 5/7 |
| SPY/ZGL | Below | 0/5 |
| BTC | $63,268 | 2/3 |
| 0DTE PCR | 0.94 | 5/5 |
| Energy | STABLE | 10/10 |
| Stagflation | 17 | 8/8 |
| Sectors | N/A | 0/5 |
| Correlations | SPY/VIX -0.92 | 4/5 |
| SKEW/VIX | 147 | 2/3 |
| Real Yield | 2.43% | 0/3 |
| Copper/Gold | +3.3% | 2/2 |
| USD/JPY | +0.8% | 2/2 |
| HYG | 0.8x | 2/2 |
30-Day Score Trend
Score history only β no forecast or extrapolation. Range 72β90.
Conviction (heuristic)
demoted Β· RT-113%
Frontend estimate = 70% health-score-band-distance + 30% streak saturation. Not a validated quantity, not persisted, not anchored to any backend value (RT-1). Shown for continuity with the legacy dashboard β read as a soft "how deep in this regime" cue, nothing more.
Signal Alignment
?Each dot = does this signal family's reading agree with realized price? A state check, not a forecast.
aligned
6/1/4
agree / disagree / neutral
β +3pp vs 5d ago· improving
+24.3pp vs TRANSITIONAL 90d avg · strong for regimeday 19 of new baseline (avg 61.7%)
Structural signals confirm the rally β breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Leading / Structural
Lagging / Confirming
Full signal breakdown
Every individual signal feeding the read β same detail as the legacy dashboard.
Dark Pool Activity
DIX (Buy Ratio)?STALE @ 2026-07-27
0.402
Below-average dark pool buyingas of Jul 27
GEX (Gamma Exp.)?
3.49B
Dealers are long gamma β expect lower volatility and mean reversion
DIX ≥ 0.48 = strong buying. GEX positive = lower vol (mean reversion). GEX negative = higher vol (trend amplification).
NFCI?STALE @ 2026-07-17
-0.552
Very loose
Chicago Fed NFCI. Negative = loose conditions; above zero = tighter-than-average.report Jul 17
Credit spreads widen before equities sell off. HY OAS > 5% = distress. Watch BBB for downgrade risk near investment-grade cliff.
Sector Breadth & Rotation
Financials(XLF)
Favorable62/67
Utilities(XLU)
Favorable27/30
Health Care(XLV)
Favorable46/54
Real Estate(XLRE)
Favorable23/28
Industrials(XLI)
Favorable51/67
Staples(XLP)
Favorable24/34
Materials(XLB)
Leaning14/24
Discretionary(XLY)
Leaning33/59
Energy(XLE)
Leaning10/19
Technology
Neutral30/65
Comm Services(XLC)
Neutral9/20
Ring = % of stocks above 50d SMA. Sparkline = 30-day trend. Wide divergence between sectors = rotation risk.
Positioning
AAII Bull-Bear Spread?WEEKLY
-12.7
Bull 30% Β· Bear 42% Β· Neutral 28%
Survey runs Wed-Wed; results published Thursday morning ET. Extreme bear (< -20) = contrarian bullish.report Jul 22
COT Specs Z-Score?WEEKLY
+2.24
Net -16,784
Friday 15:30 ET release covering Tuesday data. Z < -1.5 = extreme short (contrarian bullish).report Jul 21
Squeeze Setup?
none
0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active
Composite of 4 signals (deep-negative GEX, weak breadth, AAII extreme bear, COT extreme short). Diagnoses fuel, not direction.
Crude Oil
STABLEWTI Crude
$81.91
5d: -3.5%
Brent Crude
$87.68
Spread: $5.77
XLE (Energy Sector)
$58.36
UNG (Nat Gas)
$10.11
+3.3(+2)
w2Ratio 0.017
Rising = growth expectations improving; falling = flight to safety. 20-day rate of change smooths daily noise. Verdict requires confirmation from 10y real yield: cu/au up + accommodative real yield = broad reflation; cu/au up + restrictive yield = commodity push only (NEUTRAL).
10Y Yield
4.64
Dollar Index
101.50
Volatility Structure
MOVE Index
77
VIX/MOVE Ratio
0.24
SKEW
147(+2)
w3VVIX
101
VVIX/VIX 5.40
MOVE > 120 = bond market stress. VIX/MOVE falling = equity vol cheap vs rates vol. SKEW > 150 = elevated tail-risk pricing. VVIX tracks vol-of-vol; VVIX/VIX > 6 signals dealer fear.
0DTE SPY Options
Put/Call Ratio
0.94(+5)
w5Balanced flow
Volume
4,717,524 C / 4,421,896 P
PCR > 1.0 = more puts (bearish hedging). PCR < 0.7 = complacency. 0DTE volume drives intraday gamma effects.
Inflation Expectations
Stagflation: LOWStagflation Score
17(+8)
w817 / 100
TIPS breakeven rates reflect market-implied inflation. 5Y5Y forward = long-run expectations. Score combines breakeven levels and curve inversion.
USD/JPY 5d RoC
+0.8(+2)
w2Spot 163.71
Stable
Yen carry trade unwinds show up as USD/JPY -2% or more in 5 days. Sustained strength = risk-off de-leveraging pressure.
Fed Liquidity
Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP)?
$5,916B
Adequate
Rising net liquidity = more cash in system = bullish. TGA/RRP draining = liquidity injection.
Tilt β Β·Β·Flow 0 Β·Β·OI Ξ β Β·Β·participation: mixed
raw curves below βTilt and OI Ξ are directional positioning reads; intensity / flow are direction-blind participation. The participation word is a deterministic state read, not a forecast.
What Intraday options-flow participation: dealer tilt, cumulative flow, OI Ξ, and a deterministic character word.
So-what Mixed character β no clear accumulation/distribution edge; let price + the rail lead, not the flow word.
Changed intraday flow present; dealer-tilt leg unavailable to diff
Intraday flow curves β raw per-cycle series (tap to expand)
Intraday Flow Curves — SPY
0 min Β· todayIntraday flow curves are unavailable right now β the flow capture did not return a per-minute SPY series. Recovers on the next refresh. The live participation read lives on The Tape.
Today only by design. Intensity and net flow are direction-blind state reads; only Dealer Tilt and OI Ξ carry directional color. Coincident, not predictive.
More raw carriers ship on the signals API β every persisted metric, not just the charted subset.
Alerts
Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 10 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 11 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: hormuz_vessels_underway has printed the same value (15) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 73 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 19 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 18 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fa_underlying_price has printed the same value (745.9425) for 18 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fa_flow_dex_pct_shift has printed the same value (0.0) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fa_live_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fa_settled_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fa_flow_gex_pct_shift has printed the same value (0.0) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fa_live_net_gex has printed the same value (-0.1714) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fa_settled_net_gex has printed the same value (-0.1714) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fed_hike_prob has printed the same value (5.0) for 38 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fed_hold_prob has printed the same value (84.0) for 38 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Data integrity: fed_cut_prob has printed the same value (11.0) for 38 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.402) despite calm surface (VIX 18.7, breadth 70%).
SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
No alerts match this filter
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