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10s30s Curve

What it is

10s30s Curve — registry key curve_10s30s.

30y-minus-10y Treasury par-yield spread; long-end curve slope. long-end supply-stress carrier, Phase 1 of improvements/long-end-stress.md; scoring deferred to a pre-registered study.

Data-pyramid tier

T1 — Signal. This metric sits at the signal layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: fred_macro
Data source: computed

Derived metric — produced inside the platform (app/sources/fred_macro.py or equivalent) rather than fetched as a raw upstream value. See the How it's computed section below for the formula.

How it’s computed

Treasury 10s30s spread = DGS30 (30y) - DGS10 (10y), in percentage points. BOTH legs are FRED par yields fetched the same cycle (DGS10 is fetched as a leg only, not persisted) so the spread is never a market-data fallback ^TNX close subtracted from a FRED value. NULL when either leg is missing (never 0). See app/sources/fred_macro.py (_collect_long_end / _spread).

Where it surfaces

• API field: long_end.curve_10s30s on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

• Publishes: daily
• Approximate time (ET): 16:15
• Lag days: 1

Derived same-day from FRED H.15 / TIPS par yields (lag 1).

See also

• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.