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bigclawd

An honest read on what kind of market this is.

Live market state
Regime
CAUTIOUS
Fragility: Stable
Health
71/100
Favorable, with caution
Full Signals Breakdown→
AI Snapshot

Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.

The Tape→

Screener accountability

Track Record

Every name we flag, graded after the fact β€” mechanically, not curated.

See every call β†’

Directional Hit %

51%

directionally right

Avg return / call

-0.4%

vs SPY (market-adjusted)

across 6829 closed calls Β· 13-week span Β· as of 2026-09-11 Β· calm-regime window

β–² Long

52%

n=4780

β–Ό Short

49%

n=2049

Best call

BLKB

+71.3%

Worst call

DOCS

-73.7%

Hindsight 'would-have' return, mechanically graded by the screener's own deterministic drop rule. A live, growing ledger over a calm regime β€” not a forecast, not a proven track record.

Explore

Price History

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Price
Composites
Vol Structure
Dealer Positioning
Credit & Macro
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Cross-asset
IV Rank
Energy ETFs
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Correlations

Equity & Macro Board

Equity

TickerPriceRSIIVRΞ³-SentPCR
SPYSPY price, 2409 pts$765.22β†˜45.115.5SPY IVR, 30 ptsβ†˜Neutral0.81
QQQQQQ price, 2409 pts$715.5148.117.6QQQ IVR, 30 ptsβ†˜Neutral0.57
IWMIWM price, 2409 pts$289.54β†˜33.212.3IWM IVR, 30 ptsβ†—Bearish1.89

Macro

TickerPriceRSIIVRΞ³-SentPCR
VIXVIX price, 2409 pts15.83β†—64.124.2Neutral1.39
TNXTNX price, 2409 pts49.49β†—74.136.7-N/A
GLDGLD price, 2409 pts$399.78β†˜38.438.3Bearish1.64
DXYDXY price, 2409 pts99.0554.037.5-N/A
SLVSLV price, 2409 pts$58.1237.813.5Neutral1.09

Long End

state carrier Β· not a scored signal

US long end

as of 2026-09-11
30Y yield5.28%
20Y yield5.28%
5Y yield4.61%
10s30s+0.45
5s30s+0.67
30Y real2.98%
30Y breakeven2.30%
Years since higher19.2 yr
15Y percentile99.9%ile
All-time highno
SPY / 30Y corrβ€”pending

Sovereign long end

as of 2026-09-09

6/6 atdecade highsΒ·2/6 atall-time highs

CountryTenorLevelYrs since higherATH
United States30Y5.28%19.2 yrno
Germany30Y3.99%15.4 yrβ€”
Euro AAA30Y3.77%15.1 yrβ€”
United Kingdom20Y5.65%26.7 yrβ€”
Canadalong4.28%17.8 yrβ€”
Japan30Y4.00%27.0 yrβ€”
Japan40Y4.00%β€”β€”

Market News

Silver erases post-CPI slump, rebounds from three-week low

16m ago

Iran unveils Jinnah mural highlighting Pakistan founder's anti-Israel stance

24m ago

Dow Jones Industrial Average rallies all session as long yields back off

24m ago

WTI Oil Price Forecast: corrects lower after reaching overbought levels

36m ago

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.1%) in August: Actual (-0.08%)

39m ago

Hegseth says US will 'finish this fight' against Iran

40m ago

British Pound shakes off US CPI jolt as UK growth steals spotlight

1h ago

Trump uses 9/11 remarks to defend Iran war

1h ago

Australian Dollar holds firm as hotter US inflation fails to cement Greenback's advantage

1h ago

Yemen's Houthis reach strategic island at mouth of vital shipping lane - Reuters

1h ago

NYC's 'Baklava Guy' started selling Turkish pastries as 'a joke,' now it brings in $20K/month: 'It's my whole life'

1h ago

Global inflation watch: Muted momentum outside of energy

1h ago

China: Exports support output as property drags - DBS

1h ago

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: To hike or not to hike? Kevin Warsh between a rock and a hard place

1h ago

Gold rebounds sharply after US CPI, but key resistance stands in the way

1h ago

Taiwan: AI boom sustains trade surplus - Commerzbank

1h ago

Oil tanker rates hit record highs following Iran, US shipping attacks - Reuters

2h ago

Japan: BoJ tightening path in focus - ING

2h ago

August CPI makes Fed decision a 'close call'

2h ago

Swiss Franc struggles even as US Dollar gives back CPI-led gains

2h ago

India: Inflation pressures point to tighter bias - DBS

2h ago

Gold Weekly Forecast: Fed rate call and dot plot key for next directional action

2h ago

Canadian Dollar slides with Oil prices, US CPI fails to keep US Dollar higher

2h ago

United Kingdom: Growth outlook strengthens with AI-driven services - Deutsche Bank

2h ago

US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is seen at 47.8 in September

2h ago

Israel crosses Iran's Lebanon red lines as Tehran leans on maritime leverage

2h ago

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index fell from previous 51.5 to 45.8 in September

2h ago

Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness is active in options market, sources say

2h ago

Modi, Putin agree to strengthen India-Russia partnership on eve of BRICS summit - Reuters

2h ago

Iranian cleric says country must defend itself even if war lasts '200,000 years'

3h ago

Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Friday

3h ago

Iran accuses IAEA chief of helping build case for war

3h ago

Nonprofit received $2 million from Olivia Rodrigo and Melinda French Gates--it wants to give cash to abuse survivors

3h ago

Wealthy investors are pouring billions into this new tax strategy despite risks

4h ago

25 years after 9/11, the U.S. starts rolling back travel restrictions, from liquids to gate access

5h ago

Saudi oil supply hits more than three-decade low after Houthi attacks, IEA says - Reuters

5h ago

Iranian lawmaker says Iran will respond to IAEA resolution with action

5h ago

COMMENTARY: Morning Bid: Take a hike - Reuters

5h ago

Video: Trump says he does not regret Iran war despite impact on midterm elections

5h ago

CENTCOM chief travels to Saudi Arabia for urgent Houthi talks - Axios

6h ago

India stocks log fifth weekly loss as oil fears grip markets - Reuters

6h ago

As Saudi tensions with Iran-backed Houthis escalate, mediator Pakistan faces pressure to choose a side - Reuters

6h ago

Smoke seen near Saudi East-West oil pipeline - Reuters

6h ago

EXCLUSIVE: UAE revises AI data center plan after Iranian attacks, sources say - Reuters

6h ago

Treasury yields steady as traders await consumer inflation data amid oil price pressure

8h ago

China limits fuel price increases for third time since Iran war began - Reuters

8h ago

Iran-backed Houthis reach Yemen's Dhubab on Bab el-Mandeb Strait, sources say - Reuters

8h ago

UK economy grows by most since early 2025 on possible AI boost - Reuters

10h ago

South Korean, Iranian foreign ministers discuss Strait of Hormuz, Seoul says - Reuters

10h ago

Saudi crown prince sought U.S. military help from Trump with Houthis, sources say - Reuters

11h ago

Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows - Reuters

12h ago

Five big takeaways from Trump's midterm convention - Reuters

13h ago

Oil falls but on track for 8% weekly gain on supply concerns; US diesel hits record high - Reuters

15h ago

Trump says he does not regret Iran war despite impact it may have on midterm elections - Reuters

16h ago

Jim Cramer says this is the key force driving stocks right now

17h ago

Trump administration to sanction unnamed 'large' bank on Monday, Bessent says - Reuters

17h ago

Photos of the week - Reuters

19h ago

US average diesel price passes $6 a gallon for the first time, GasBuddy says - Reuters

20h ago

US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East - Reuters

20h ago

Israel says it destroyed Hezbollah underground complex at Lebanon's Ali al-Taher - Reuters

20h ago

60 headlines

Economic Calendar & Earnings

Today

Economic Releases

Consumer Price Index (CPI)Pending

Upcoming

Economic Releases

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index2026-09-22

Earnings

JPMEst: $5.89↓0.3%
2026-10-13
GSEst: $16.43↑16.6%
2026-10-13
TSLAEst: $0.45↓0.5%
2026-10-21
MSFTEst: $4.72↑0.1%
2026-10-28
GOOGLEst: $3.01↑0.2%
2026-10-28
METAEst: $6.53↓3.4%
2026-10-28
AAPLEst: $1.98
2026-10-29
AMZNEst: $1.95↑0.2%
2026-10-29
NVDAEst: $2.47↑5.3%
2026-11-17
WMTEst: $0.64↓6.8%
2026-11-19