Market Dashboard

Market Open — 39m left

Updated 2026-04-15 15:15:50 ET

Full Report →

Signal Alignment

?
Strong Alignment
▲ SPY +3.0% 5d
88%

aligned

7/1/4

agree / disagree / neutral

↑+21pp vs 5d ago · improving

+22.8pp vs RISK-ON 90d avg (65.2%)· strong for regimeday 4 of new baseline

Structural signals broadly confirm SPY's trend — 7 of 8 directional signals aligned.

Leading / structural

Lagging / confirming

[RISK-ON]

Market Regime

RISK-ON

Fragility: CRITICAL · Nearest: HY OAS > 3.0% → loses RISK-ON
Streak: 3d Conviction: 75% Last change: 3d ago Previously: RISK-ON
2026-04-02 14-day regime history 2026-04-15

86

/100

Signal Health

?

Favorable

+4/day ↓↓ · improving

DIX 0.490 10/10
GEX +7.4B 10/10
HY OAS 2.84% 8/8
Breadth 54% 5/7
Vol Term Contango 5/5
Liquidity Expanding 7/7
SPY/ZGL Above 5/5
BTC $74,671 2/3
0DTE PCR 0.81 5/5
Energy ELEVATED 7/10
Stagflation 15 8/8
Sectors 3/5 3/5
Correlations SPY/VIX -0.92 1.7/5
SKEW/VIX 150 2/3
Real Yield 1.92% 1/3
Copper/Gold +10.8% 2/2
USD/JPY +0.2% 2/2
HYG 0.6x 2/2

30-Day Score Trend

Alerts

View History →
info

DIX at 0.490 — strong dark pool buying activity.

4m ago · First fired 5h ago
warning

SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.

4m ago · First fired 7h ago
warning

Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.

4m ago · First fired 23h ago
warning

SKEW at 150 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.

4m ago · First fired 1d ago
info

Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.490, GEX +7.4B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 54%.

4m ago · First fired 1d ago
warning

5Y breakeven inflation at 2.59% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.

4m ago · First fired 3d ago
warning

3-2-1 crack spread at $42.78/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.

4m ago · First fired 3d ago
warning

Oil spike alert: USO at $122.64 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.

4m ago · First fired 5d ago
warning

SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.

13h ago · First fired 1d ago

Gamma Profile (SPY)

Call Wall$700.00ZGL$678.84Put Wall$694.00SPY$699.59

Positive-gamma zone

+0.41 to call wall

-20.75 to ZGL

-5.59 to put wall

Range width: 6.00

Dealer gamma hedging creates support at the put wall and resistance at the call wall. ZGL is the zero-gamma line — SPY above it dampens volatility, below it amplifies moves. Breach of either wall = accelerated move.

Price History

Equity & Macro Board

Equity

Ticker Price RSI IVR GEX PCR
SPY $699.59 72.5 88.4 Bullish 0.26
QQQ $636.01 71.5 86.7 Bullish 0.18
IWM $269.02 71.8 87.2 Bullish 0.51

Macro

Ticker Price RSI IVR GEX PCR
VIX 17.89 32.0 75.8 Neutral 1.07
TNX 42.82 36.1 78.6 - N/A
GLD $440.81 70.9 55.7 Bullish 0.68
DXY 98.03 31.1 45.4 - N/A
SLV $71.74 68.5 28.5 Bullish 0.55

Dark Pool & Liquidity

Dark Pool Activity

Bullish

DIX (Buy Ratio)

0.490

Strong institutional buying in dark pools

GEX (Gamma Exp.)

7.4B

Dealers are long gamma — expect lower volatility and mean reversion

DIX > 0.45 = strong buying. GEX positive = lower vol (mean reversion). GEX negative = higher vol (trend amplification).

Fed Liquidity

Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP)

$5,945B

WALCL

$6693.9B

TGA

$748.4B

RRP

$0.2B

Expanding

Rising net liquidity = more cash in system = bullish. TGA/RRP draining = liquidity injection.

Global Liquidity & BTC

BTC (Liquidity Proxy)

$74,671

Neutral

Global CB Balance Sheets

$17,106B

ECB: $6,747B BOJ: $4,414B

BTC tracks global liquidity. Rising CB balance sheets = more liquidity = risk-on.

Volatility & Options

Volatility Structure

MOVE Index (Bond Vol)

74

VIX/MOVE Ratio

0.24

Normal Relationship

MOVE > 120 = bond market stress. VIX/MOVE ratio falling = equity vol is cheap relative to rates vol.

0DTE SPY Options

Put/Call Ratio

0.81

Balanced 0DTE Flow

Volume

3,788,470 C / 3,059,856 P

PCR > 1.0 = more puts (bearish hedging). PCR < 0.7 = complacency. 0DTE volume drives intraday gamma effects.

Cascade Tracker

Stage 0/13

None

Active: 0 ▼ /day
▲ Stage undefined

Macro Cross-Asset

SKEW 150 Elevated
VVIX 98
Real Yield 10Y 1.92% Firm
Cu/Au RoC 10.81% Growth optimism
USD/JPY 5d 0.23% Stable
NFCI -0.47 Loose
HYG Vol Ratio 0.64 Light volume
VVIX/VIX Ratio 5.49

Base Rate Context

n=7/45
1-Day Fwd +0.42%
60%+
Med: +0.2% Range: -0.04% / +1.2%

Current Setup

risk-on vix low dix strong credit tight breadth med score high

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread

2.84%

Benign

High yield credit spread over Treasuries. Rising = stress.

BBB Spread

1.02%

Normal

Investment-grade corporate spread. Widening = risk aversion.

2s10s Spread

0.50%

Normal (Steepening)

Yield curve slope. Negative = inverted (recession signal).

Credit spreads widen before equities sell off. HY OAS > 5% = distress. Watch BBB for downgrade risk near investment-grade cliff.

SPY/TNX correlation: -0.92 (severe) — stocks and yields diverging — flight to safety dynamics.

Energy & Commodities

Crude Oil

ELEVATED

WTI Crude

$90.92

5d: -7.1%

Brent Crude

$94.64

Spread: $3.72

XLE (Energy Sector)

$55.92

UNG (Nat Gas)

$10.60

Refining & Fuel

3-2-1 Crack Spread

$42.78

Very Wide (refiner windfall)

RBOB Gasoline

$3.0000/gal

Heating Oil

$3.5500/gal

Crack spread = refiner margin. Wide spreads mean high fuel prices vs crude. Watch for demand destruction signals above $40/bbl.

Signal History

Signal Current 5d Ago Trend
DIX (Dark Pool) 0.49 0.47
GEX (Gamma) 7.40 5.25
HY OAS 2.8% 2.9%
Breadth (50d SMA) 53.5% 53.7%
VIX 17.89 18.98
SKEW 150 N/A
Real Yield (10Y) 1.9% N/A
Cu/Au 20d RoC 10.8% N/A
USD/JPY (5d) 0.2% N/A
NFCI -0.47 N/A
MOVE Index 74 74
Net Liquidity $5,945 $5,945

Historical Context

Regime Streak

3days

Last Regime Change

2026-04-12

Days Since Critical

1days

Trend arrows compare current values against the 5-day rolling average. Rising DIX + falling HY OAS = improving conditions.

Sector Breadth

Financials
85%
Favorable
Real Estate
79%
Favorable
Technology
66%
Favorable
Communication Services
65%
Favorable
Utilities
57%
Leaning
Consumer Discretionary
56%
Leaning
Energy
50%
Leaning
Materials
46%
Neutral
Industrials
39%
Cautionary
Health Care
35%
Cautionary
Consumer Staples
12%
Adverse

% of sector stocks above 50d SMA. Wide divergence = rotation risk.

Correlations (20-Day)

Pair Value Normal Status
SPY/VIX -0.918 -0.85 to -0.70 normal
SPY/DXY -0.928 -0.40 to +0.10 severe
SPY/TNX -0.923 -0.20 to +0.40 severe
SPY/Oil -0.831 -0.30 to +0.20 severe

Dollar and stocks moving together — potential risk-off pattern.

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield

4.28%

Dollar Index

98.03

Inflation Expectations

Stagflation: LOW

5Y Breakeven

2.59%

Above Target

10Y Breakeven

2.37%

5Y5Y Forward

2.15%

Stagflation Score

15/100

TIPS breakeven rates reflect market-implied inflation. 5Y5Y forward = long-run expectations. Score combines breakeven levels and curve inversion.

News & Geopolitics

FX News Wire

FXStreet ↗

USD/JPY steady below 160.00 amid Japan intervention risks

52m ago

KRW: Tech cycle and NPS hedging shift back bullish case - MUFG

53m ago

China: Import strength offsets export cooling - UOB

1h ago

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD holds near 1.3570 as Iran talk optimism cools

2h ago

USD/TRY: Stable path with renewed carry interest - ING

2h ago

AUD/USD surges ahead of Australian jobs data as US Dollar loses footing

2h ago

WTI Oil holds steady as US troop buildup, Iran talks keep prices in balance

2h ago

GBP/USD holds near 1.3570 as Iran talk optimism cools

2h ago

Gold consolidates losses as traders weigh Fed outlook and US-Iran talks hopes

2h ago

EUR/USD edges higher as US-Iran talk hopes weigh on the US Dollar

2h ago

ECB's Nagel: As long as Hormuz is not resolved, the danger of higher inflation rises

3h ago

Oil: Supply shock sustains inflation risks - Rabobank

4h ago

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD tests channel resistance near one-month highs on the 4-hour chart

4h ago

ASEAN-6: Differentiated tightening paths after energy shock - DBS

4h ago

Eurozone: Downside risks for industry grow after war shock - ING

4h ago

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at -0.913M, below expectations (0.2M) in April 10

4h ago

USD/JPY: Lagging recovery with upside risk on catch-up - Scotiabank

5h ago

USD/CHF stays near one-month low as US-Iran thaw, soft inflation weigh on Dollar

5h ago

Asia FX: Strong exports support selective outperformance - MUFG

5h ago

Canada: Gradual spending stabilization continues - RBC

5h ago

20 articles

UAE summons Iraqi envoy over attacks from Iraqi territory

19m ago

Breaking

US Senate votes 52-47 to block limits on Iran strikes

20m ago

US Senate Republicans block resolution to limit Trump's Iran war powers

27m ago

Iran's Ebadi, Panahi named to Time's 2026 list of 100 most influential people

36m ago

Netanyahu says Israel aligned with US on Iran and ready if fighting resumes

1h ago

Breaking

US targets Iran-linked network with counter-terror designations

1h ago

Breaking

Iran may allow ships through Omani side of Hormuz under US deal - Reuters

1h ago

White House says blockade of Iranian ports fully implemented

1h ago

Pakistan hopeful of 'major breakthrough' in Iran talks - Al Jazeera

1h ago

Israel says monitoring Iran truce talks but ready to resume strikes

1h ago

10 updates

Hormuz Strait Status

Monitor ↗

Throughput

Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage

Ships Transiting

Near zero (normal: ~60/day)

Stranded Vessels

150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels

Oil Prices

Brent crude surging due to supply disruption

War Risk Insurance

Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates

Global Impact

21% oil supply 25% LNG trade $4 billion/day cost
+14 days Cape reroute | Tanker rates: tripled

Economic Calendar & Earnings

Today

Economic Releases

Crude Oil Inventories
-0.913vs2.100MISSPrev: 3.081
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
-1.727Prev: 0.024
Export Price Index(MoM)(Mar)
1.6%vs1.5%BEATPrev: 1.9%
Import Price Index(MoM)(Mar)
0.8%vs2.3%MISSPrev: 0.9%
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Apr)
11.00vs0.30BEATPrev: -0.20
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(Feb)Pending

Upcoming

Economic Releases

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index2026-04-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)2026-04-30
Employment Situation (Payrolls)2026-05-08
Consumer Price Index (CPI)2026-05-12
Producer Price Index (PPI)2026-05-13

Earnings

TSLAEst: $0.38↓6.5%
2026-04-22
MSFTEst: $4.07
2026-04-29
GOOGLEst: $2.61↑0.2%
2026-04-29
METAEst: $6.62↑0.3%
2026-04-29
AAPLEst: $1.94↓0.9%
2026-04-30
AMZNEst: $1.65↑0.3%
2026-04-30
NVDAEst: $1.78↓0.2%
2026-05-20
WMTEst: $0.66↓0.1%
2026-05-21
JPMEst: $5.51↑0.2%
2026-07-14
GSEst: $13.76↓3.4%
2026-07-14