Market Dashboard
Updated 2026-04-17 04:00:27 ET
Full Report →Signal Alignment
?aligned
6/1/4
agree / disagree / neutral
↑+26pp vs 5d ago · improving
+14.3pp vs RISK-ON 90d avg · strong for regimeday 6 of new baseline (avg 71.7%)
Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, credit, and growth expectations align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Leading / Structural
Lagging / Confirming
Gamma Rail — SPY
Above call wall — vol pressure$693.00
$700.00
$694.14
Dealer gamma hedging creates support at the put wall and resistance at the call wall. ZGL is the zero-gamma line — SPY above it dampens volatility, below it amplifies moves. Breach of either wall = accelerated move.
Cascade Tracker
Stage 0/13Stress propagates in order: vol → credit → breadth → correlations → liquidity. More lit stages = deeper contagion.
No active cascade
0-2 stages = isolated. 3-5 = spreading. 6-8 = broad stress. 9+ = systemic contagion. Watch velocity for acceleration.
Market Regime
RISK-ON
Overall market state classified from the alignment dots. Drives which signals lead and which thresholds fire alerts.
When Markets Looked Like This
9 matches / 47 daysWe scanned the last 47 trading days for setups that looked like today (the chips below list what we matched on). Found 9. Here's how SPY moved over the 1, 3, and 5 trading days after each of those historical days. Not a prediction — a base rate.
Matched on: these are today's bucketed values — similar days had the same combination
Nearest flip trigger: HY OAS > 3.0% → loses RISK-ON
Event Feed
4683
/100
| Signal | Current | Δ | 5D Avg | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIX | 0.498 | ▲ | 0.48 | 10/10 |
| GEX | +9.6B | ▲ | 6.93 | 10/10 |
| HY OAS | 2.85% | ▼ | 2.90% | 8/8 |
| Breadth | 53% | ▲ | 52.90% | 5/7 |
| Vol Term | Contango | 5/5 | ||
| Liquidity | Expanding | — | 5,954 | 7/7 |
| SPY/ZGL | Above | 5/5 | ||
| BTC | $75,103 | 2/3 | ||
| 0DTE PCR | 0.87 | 5/5 | ||
| Energy | ELEVATED | 7/10 | ||
| Stagflation | 36 | 5/8 | ||
| Sectors | 3/5 | 3/5 | ||
| Correlations | SPY/VIX -0.94 | 1.7/5 | ||
| SKEW/VIX | 141 | 2/3 | ||
| Real Yield | 1.90% | 1/3 | ||
| Copper/Gold | +7.9% | 2/2 | ||
| USD/JPY | -0.2% | 2/2 | ||
| HYG | 0.6x | 2/2 |
30-Day Score Trend
Price History
Equity & Macro Board
Equity
| Ticker | Price | RSI | IVR | GEX | PCR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $702.26↗ | 73.0 | 88.6→ | Bullish | 0.52 | |
| QQQ | $640.23↗ | 72.8 | 87.4→ | Bullish | 0.40 | |
| IWM | $270.51↗ | 70.3 | 86.6→ | Bullish | 0.32 |
Macro
| Ticker | Price | RSI | IVR | GEX | PCR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.94↘ | 34.0 | 69.4 | Bullish | 0.52 | |
| TNX | 43.09 | 44.9 | 73.0 | - | N/A | |
| GLD | $440.06↗ | 63.4 | 56.0 | Neutral | 0.71 | |
| DXY | 98.26 | 29.7 | 47.3 | - | N/A | |
| SLV | $71.24 | 64.7 | 28.5 | Bullish | 0.60 |
Dark Pool1h
Dark Pool · NEUTRAL · DIX 0.498Dark Pool Activity
DIX (Buy Ratio)
0.498
Strong institutional buying in dark pools
GEX (Gamma Exp.)
9.55B
Dealers are long gamma — expect lower volatility and mean reversion
DIX > 0.45 = strong buying. GEX positive = lower vol (mean reversion). GEX negative = higher vol (trend amplification).
Credit Conditions1h
Credit · BULLISH · HY OAS 2.85%HY OAS Spread
2.85%
Benign
High yield credit spread over Treasuries. Rising = stress.
BBB Spread
1.01%
Normal
Investment-grade corporate spread. Widening = risk aversion.
2s10s Spread
0.54%
Normal (Steepening)
Yield curve slope. Negative = inverted (recession signal).
NFCI
-0.465
Loose
Chicago Fed NFCI. Negative = loose conditions; above zero = tighter-than-average.
HYG Volume Ratio
0.62
Light volume
HYG volume vs 20d avg. >1.5 = unusual credit activity.
Credit spreads widen before equities sell off. HY OAS > 5% = distress. Watch BBB for downgrade risk near investment-grade cliff.
Breadth1h
Breadth · NEUTRAL · Breadth 53%Sector Breadth & Rotation
Financials (XLF)
Favorable55/68
Technology
Favorable47/65
Real Estate (XLRE)
Favorable20/28
Comm Services (XLC)
Favorable14/20
Utilities (XLU)
Favorable19/30
Energy (XLE)
Leaning10/20
Discretionary (XLY)
Neutral28/59
Materials (XLB)
Neutral11/24
Industrials (XLI)
Cautionary24/67
Health Care (XLV)
Cautionary18/54
Staples (XLP)
Adverse6/34
Ring = % of stocks above 50d SMA. Sparkline = 30-day trend. Wide divergence between sectors = rotation risk.
Energy & Commodities1h
Energy · NEUTRAL · Energy ELEVATEDCrude Oil
ELEVATEDWTI Crude
$90.04
5d: -6.8%
Brent Crude
$98.41
Spread: $8.37
XLE (Energy Sector)
$56.58
UNG (Nat Gas)
$10.78
Refining & Fuel
3-2-1 Crack Spread
$47.02
Very Wide (refiner windfall)
RBOB Gasoline
$3.0800/gal
Heating Oil
$3.6300/gal
Crack spread = refiner margin. Wide spreads mean high fuel prices vs crude. Watch for demand destruction signals above $40/bbl.
Growth Expectations1h
Growth Expectations · BULLISH · Cu/Au 20d +7.9%Copper/Gold 20d RoC
+7.90%
Growth optimism
Ratio 0.014 — copper (growth) vs gold (safety).
Rising = growth expectations improving; falling = flight to safety. 20-day rate of change smooths daily noise.
Correlations1h
Correlations · BEARISH · SPY/Oil corr -0.8310Y Yield
4.31%
Dollar Index
98.26
Correlations (20-Day)
| Pair | Value | Normal | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY/VIX | -0.938 | -0.85 to -0.70 | normal |
| SPY/DXY | -0.918 | -0.40 to +0.10 | extreme |
| SPY/TNX | -0.937 | -0.20 to +0.40 | extreme |
| SPY/Oil | -0.832 | -0.30 to +0.20 | extreme |
Dollar and stocks moving together — potential risk-off pattern.
Volatility & Options1h
Volatility · BULLISH · VIX 17.9Volatility Structure
MOVE Index (Bond Vol)
66
VIX/MOVE Ratio
0.27
Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates
SKEW
141
Firm
VVIX
97
VVIX/VIX 5.40
MOVE > 120 = bond market stress. VIX/MOVE falling = equity vol cheap vs rates vol. SKEW > 150 = elevated tail-risk pricing. VVIX tracks vol-of-vol; VVIX/VIX > 6 signals dealer fear.
0DTE SPY Options
Put/Call Ratio
0.87
Balanced 0DTE Flow
Volume
1,019,664 C / 883,669 P
PCR > 1.0 = more puts (bearish hedging). PCR < 0.7 = complacency. 0DTE volume drives intraday gamma effects.
Inflation1h
Inflation · NEUTRAL · Stagflation 36Inflation Expectations
Stagflation: MODERATE5Y Breakeven
2.60%
Above Target
10Y Breakeven
2.39%
5Y5Y Forward
2.18%
Real Yield (10Y)
1.90%
Firm
Stagflation Score
36/100
TIPS breakeven rates reflect market-implied inflation. 5Y5Y forward = long-run expectations. Score combines breakeven levels and curve inversion.
Carry / USD-JPY1h
Carry Risk · BULLISH · USD/JPY 5d -0.2%, MOVE 66USD/JPY 5d RoC
-0.17%
Neutral
Spot 159.41 — yen weakness (rising) supports carry; sharp strengthening = risk-off.
Yen carry trade unwinds show up as USD/JPY -2% or more in 5 days. Sustained strength = risk-off de-leveraging pressure.
Liquidity1h
Liquidity · BULLISH · ExpandingFed Liquidity
Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP)
$5,954B
WALCL
$6705.7B
TGA
$751.4B
RRP
$0.2B
Expanding
Rising net liquidity = more cash in system = bullish. TGA/RRP draining = liquidity injection.
Global Liquidity & BTC
BTC (Liquidity Proxy)
$75,103 ▲
Neutral
Global CB Balance Sheets
$17,115B
BTC tracks global liquidity. Rising CB balance sheets = more liquidity = risk-on.
Fed Policy
Fed Funds Rate
3.50-3.75%
Next FOMC
2026-04-29
Probability data unavailable
Market-implied rate probabilities. Rate cuts are bullish for equities and bonds. Source: FRED + CME FedWatch.
Alerts
SKEW at 141 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
DIX at 0.498 — strong dark pool buying activity.
SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.498, GEX +9.6B, HY OAS 2.85%, breadth 53%.
5Y breakeven inflation at 2.60% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
3-2-1 crack spread at $47.02/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
No alerts match this filter
News & Geopolitics
FX News Wire
FXStreet ↗Oil: Current shock less damaging than 1970s - Commerzbank
1h ago
USD: Diversification hinge for Q2 flows - BNY
2h ago
GBP/JPY surrenders modest intraday gains; holds above 215.00 amid mixed cues
2h ago
USD/INR falls as RBI introduces more measures against US Dollar buying
2h ago
S&P 500: Record highs extend winning streak - Deutsche Bank
2h ago
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD wobbles near $79, investors await US-Iran second round talks
2h ago
Canadian Dollar strengthens ahead of Canadian CPI inflation release
2h ago
AUD/USD: Pullback within broader upside risk - UOB
2h ago
EUR/USD holds above 1.1770, awaiting the outcome of US-Iran peace talks
2h ago
Compared to estimates, Netflix (NFLX) Q1 earnings: A look at key metrics
2h ago
Oil: Conflict risks and Strait disruption - Rabobank
2h ago
Gold sticks to negative bias below $4,800 amid modest USD uptick; downside seems cushioned
2h ago
WTI holds losses near $89.50 ahead of potential US-Iran further talks
2h ago
EUR/USD: Downtrend resumes with stable forecasts - Danske Bank
3h ago
USD: Rate expectations and crisis hedging support - Commerzbank
3h ago
Pound Sterling softens as focus shifts to possible US-Iran negotiations
3h ago
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Fresh rally expected above 0.7200
3h ago
Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD stays pressured amid BoE hike bets and optimisms
3h ago
Asian stocks fall due to US-Iran ceasefire doubts, profit-taking
3h ago
IEA Chief Birol warns of higher energy prices if Strait of Hormuz is not reopened
3h ago
Iran War News
Iran International ↗Iran lawmaker says restoring internet not in country's interest now
1h ago
Pakistan PM welcomes Lebanon ceasefire
2h ago
Tehran to name key location after Khamenei, council spokesperson says
2h ago
Iran Guards say forces 'finger on the trigger' during 'silence on battlefield'
2h ago
Iran official says attacks on power infrastructure target civilians
3h ago
Europe can help clear mines in Hormuz, French minister says
3h ago
Trump says 'good things' happening for Lebanon
5h ago
US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln conducts blockade operations, CENTCOM says
5h ago
Iran suspends kindergarten operations until further notice
5h ago
Gold steady, set for weekly gain on hopes of US-Iran deal
6h ago
Hormuz Strait Status
Monitor ↗Throughput
Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
Ships Transiting
Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
Stranded Vessels
150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
Oil Prices
Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
War Risk Insurance
Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
Global Impact
Economic Calendar & Earnings
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Economic Releases
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Earnings