Auto-generated. This article is rebuilt from app/signals/config/signal_definitions.json by scripts/build_signals_kb.py. Edit the registry entry and re-run the script — do not edit this file directly.

Stagflation Risk

What it is

Stagflation Risk — registry key stagflation.

Classifier metric. See the bands table below for the band-by-band reading.

Data-pyramid tier

T3 — Lens. This metric sits at the lens layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: inflation
Data source: computed

Derived metric — produced inside the platform (app/sources/inflation.py or equivalent) rather than fetched as a raw upstream value. See the How it's computed section below for the formula.

How it’s computed

Composite 0-100 stagflation risk: weighted sum of (breakeven_5y, 40%; breakeven_10y, 20%; breakeven_5y5y, 20%; breakeven_inversion = be_5y − be_10y, 20%) — each component min-max-scaled to its policy-relevant band. See app/signals/stagflation.py:compute_stagflation_breakdown.

Where it surfaces

• API field: inflation.stagflation_score on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)
• Surface: change markers in the rendered report

Bands / thresholds

Classifier direction: lower_is_better.

Health-score / alignment role

• Health score component: stagflation (weight + math in app/signals/config/score_weights.json and app/signals/score.py).
• Alignment category: inflation, default weight 1.0 (see /kb/alignment for the 11-category framework).
• Contributes to: health_score.Stagflation, implication.inflation, alignment.inflation, cascade.8

Release cadence

• Publishes: intraday

Computed from breakevens + macro fundamentals; refreshes with ‘full’ profile cycles.

See also

• /kb/alignment — Alignment framework — 11-category implication vs. price.
• /kb/health-score — Health score — 0-100 composite.
• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.