Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-28 00:01:25 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.402 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.94 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 70% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.40 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.79% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.402) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.402; GEX positive at 3.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.28 | 50 SMA $745.07 | 200 SMA $698.54 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.99
- QQQ: $682.18 | 50 SMA $718.29 | 200 SMA $643.17 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.94
- IWM: $293.10 | 50 SMA $291.19 | 200 SMA $264.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.88
- VIX: 18.67 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.641%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.28 | 39.09 | 39.7 | $740.99 | Bearish | 1.76 |
| QQQ | $682.18 | 33.06 | 58.6 | $690.94 | Bearish | 3.22 |
| IWM | $293.10 | 36.34 | 0.0 | $293.88 | Bearish | 2.76 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.67 | 60.58 | 40.7 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.68 |
| TNX | 46.41 | 70.33 | 13.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $374.05 | 41.31 | 25.0 | $371.40 | Bearish | 0.50 |
| DXY | 101.50 | 57.55 | 13.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.87 | 39.19 | 13.1 | $52.27 | Bearish | 0.42 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.402
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.49B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 92.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 85.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 76.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 46.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $81.91 (5d: -3.5%)
- Brent Crude: $87.68 | Spread: $5.77
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.01/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.36
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.11
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.918 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.588 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.379 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.474 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.21
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,717,524.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,421,896.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.94 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $675.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $739.28)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.64%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.50
- Growth vs Value: 0.92
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,916B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,783B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,911B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,610B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,268 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 10 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 11 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_vessels_underway has printed the same value (15) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 73 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 19 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.49%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $57.50 despite easing Fed hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-falls-to-near-5750-despite-easing-fed-hike-bets-202607280359 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 03:59:13 GMT
[2] Ripple and Stellar outlook: XRP and XLM extend correction as bearish pressure builds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-and-stellar-outlook-xrp-and-xlm-extend-correction-as-bearish-pressure-builds-202607280353 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 03:53:09 GMT
[3] Japanese Yen flattens against US Dollar while Fed's policy takes centre stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-flattens-against-us-dollar-while-feds-policy-takes-centre-stage-202607280346 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 03:46:35 GMT
[4] Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin risks losing $63,000 - FET, SHIB lead losses URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-market-overview-bitcoin-risks-losing-63-000-fet-shib-lead-losses-202607280342 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 03:42:36 GMT
[5] Pump.fun surges following rising revenue and social push URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pumpfun-surges-following-rising-revenue-and-social-push-202607280314 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 03:14:31 GMT
[6] RBA's Bullock: Key question is whether tightening already delivered is enough to slow inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbas-bullock-key-question-is-whether-tightening-already-delivered-is-enough-to-slow-inflation-202607280309 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 03:09:40 GMT
[7] Japan's Katayama: Need to communicate JGB market before budget compilation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-need-to-communicate-jgb-market-before-budget-compilation-202607280309 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 03:09:32 GMT
[8] Asian stocks including KOSPI slide as AI doubts hit chipmakers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-including-kospi-slide-as-ai-doubts-hit-chipmakers-202607280259 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:59:33 GMT
[9] Pound Sterling Price News & Forecast: GBP/USD declines as the US Dollar holds firm URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-forecast-gbp-usd-declines-as-the-us-dollar-holds-firm-202607280250 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:50:11 GMT
[10] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks vulnerable as focus shifts to the Fed meeting URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-looks-vulnerable-as-focus-shifts-to-the-fed-meeting-202607280229 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:29:33 GMT
[11] Senate prepares for potential CLARITY Act floor vote as Republicans work to secure support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/senate-prepares-for-potential-clarity-act-floor-vote-as-republicans-work-to-secure-support-202607280229 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:29:32 GMT
[12] Canadian Dollar struggles near two-week low vs USD amid bearish oil prices, ahead of FOMC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-struggles-near-two-week-low-vs-usd-amid-bearish-oil-prices-ahead-of-fomc-202607280224 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:24:46 GMT
[13] United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (1.2%) in July: Actual (0.9%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-brc-shop-price-index-yoy-below-forecasts-12-in-july-actual-09-202607280212 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:12:15 GMT
[14] Australian Dollar gains ahead of RBA Governor Bullock's speech URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-gains-ahead-of-rba-governor-bullocks-speech-202607280212 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 02:12:05 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran factions vie to shape narrative of military lull Time: 2026-07-28T03:38:02.634Z
[2] Dollar holds firm as Iran war pause eases oil Time: 2026-07-28T02:47:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 150 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 25.0% of normal
- Throughput: 25.0% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS467 (+834% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost