MP Materials Corp.

MPBasic MaterialsOther Industrial Metals & Mining

Exchange: NYQCurrency: USDCountry: United StatesMkt Cap: $9.14BShares: 178.10M

Pinned to watchlist

price ✓fundamentals ✓earnings ✓estimates ✓options ✓sentiment ✓corp events ✓ownership ✓

Price

$51.34

Live · 13:17 ET

Current Day return

+0.33%

1-day

-0.09%

5-day

-4.77%

20-day

-8.21%

High $51.63Low $50.60Return +0.33%47 pts

Open

$51.16

High

$51.63

Low

$50.60

$51.34

Adj Close

—

Volume

—

RSI (14)

43.2

Neutral

—

Realized Vol (20d ann.)

57.1%

13th pctile (1y)

—

Beta (60d)

2.47

vs SPY

—

ATR%

5.94%

ATR $3.05

—

vs SMA 20

-8.6%

—

vs SMA 50

0.1%

—

vs SMA 200

-10.9%

—

vs 52w High

-48.0%

+34.6% vs 52w low

—

Signals — MP

at-a-glance

RSI (14)

43.2

Neutral

IV Rank

32th pctile

Beta (60d)

2.47

vs SPY

RS vs SPY

0.69

vs sector 0.72

Gamma

Negative-gamma zone

Call $56.00 · Put $50.00

NBBO Spread

9.7bps

live NBBO bid/ask

Drawdown Risk

low · uncalibrated

Gamma Rail

ready

Gamma Rail — MP (Near-term)

Negative-gamma zone

MP $51.34▼

Put Wall
$50.00

Call Wall
$56.00

ZGL
$55.87

+4.66 to call-1.34 to put+4.54 to ZGLChain net-Γ -0.01B

Gamma by strike (top 20)

$40.00

-0.00BC 491 / P 6,780

$45.00

-0.00BC 858 / P 8,278

$47.00

-0.00BC 41 / P 293

$48.00

-0.00BC 27 / P 363

$49.00

-0.00BC 41 / P 340

$50.00

-0.00BC 1,863 / P 7,139

$51.00

-0.00BC 114 / P 554

$52.00

-0.00BC 263 / P 1,082

$53.00

-0.00BC 292 / P 1,192

$54.00

-0.00BC 473 / P 1,326

$55.00

-0.00BC 4,787 / P 9,683

$56.00

+0.00BC 1,066 / P 202

$57.00

+0.00BC 1,214 / P 148

$58.00

+0.00BC 994 / P 147

$59.00

+0.00BC 1,182 / P 68

$60.00

+0.00BC 8,329 / P 2,730

$61.00

+0.00BC 1,398 / P 70

$65.00

+0.00BC 6,581 / P 670

$70.00

+0.00BC 7,296 / P 682

$75.00

+0.00BC 3,419 / P 8

Near-term grain — front 1-2 expirations only. Tighter walls reflect the gamma the dealer desk is hedging this week; the Wide grain smooths across ~5 expirations.

Options / Vol

ready

ATM IV

71.8%

2026-09-10

IV Rank

32th pctile

Implied Move

±3.0%

Put/Call OI

0.84

25Δ Skew

-9.56%

Call bid

Term Slope

-0.0188

Backwardation

Total OI

461,394

OI Velocity

+2,494

IV Rank trend

ATM IV trend

Put/Call trend

25Δ Skew trend

Implied Move trend

Total OI trend

OI Velocity trend

Sentiment

ready

Avg Score (7d)

-0.19

2026-09-10

Articles

7d window

Positive

Negative

Avg score trend (23d)

Article count trend (23d)

Estimates & Revisions

ready

EPS Consensus

$0.00

2026-09-10

7d Revision

$-0.00

30d Revision

+$0.01

Price Target

$75.38

$58–$100 range

Analyst ratings (18 total)

Strong Buy 5Buy 13100% bull

EPS consensus trend (23d)

Price target trend (23d)

Earnings

ready

Next: 2026-11-0555d awayest. — subject to change

EPS surprise trend (10 prints)

Date	When	EPS Est	EPS Act	Surprise	Gap%	+1d	+5d	+10d
2026-08-06	—	—	$-0.01	—	-0.88%	-0.88%	—	—
2026-05-07	—	$-0.04	$0.03	+$1.75	-4.85%	-4.85%	-12.28%	-22.23%
2026-02-26	—	$0.02	$0.09	+$3.50	+2.28%	+2.28%	+5.03%	+6.12%
2025-11-06	—	$-0.16	$-0.10	+$0.38	-5.43%	-5.43%	+8.72%	+15.69%
2025-08-07	—	$-0.20	$-0.13	+$0.35	+5.27%	+5.27%	+11.69%	+0.98%
2025-05-08	—	$-0.12	$-0.12	+$0.00	+0.97%	+0.97%	-10.75%	-17.44%
2025-02-20	—	$-0.13	$-0.12	+$0.08	+0.83%	+0.83%	+3.39%	+11.61%
2024-11-07	—	$-0.13	$-0.12	+$0.08	+1.52%	+1.52%	-2.85%	-7.37%
2024-08-01	—	$-0.09	$-0.17	$-0.89	—	—	—	—
2024-05-02	—	$-0.03	$-0.04	$-0.33	—	—	—	—
2024-02-22	—	$-0.03	$-0.02	+$0.33	—	—	—	—
2023-11-02	—	—	$0.04	—	—	—	—	—

Fundamentals + Quality Gate

ready

✗

Deep quality gate: Fail

gross margin 0.8% < floor 10% (Basic Materials)
free cash flow $-223M < 0 (FCF negative TTM)
interest coverage -2.0x < floor 1.5x

Revenue

—

Gross Margin

—

Operating Margin

—

Net Margin

—

Free Cash Flow

—

Net Income

—

Debt/Equity

—

EPS Diluted

$-0.11

2026-06-30

Quarterly history (7 periods)

Period	Revenue	Gross%	Op%	Net%	FCF
2026-06-30	—	—	—	—	—
2026-03-31	$90.65M	-17.4%	-20.1%	-8.8%	-$79.28M
2025-12-31	$52.69M	-32.2%	-4.8%	17.9%	-$109.26M
2025-09-30	$53.55M	-32.5%	-122.5%	-78.0%	-$92.54M
2025-06-30	$57.39M	-24.1%	-75.1%	-53.8%	-$32.66M
2025-03-31	$60.81M	-15.5%	-55.6%	-37.2%	-$93.67M
2024-12-31	—	—	—	—	—

Revenue trend

Gross margin trend

Net margin trend

FCF trend

Ownership

ready

Short Interest

Short % Float

17.8%

2026-09-10

Days to Cover

4.1

Shares Short

29.2M

Institutional Snapshot

Date	Holder	Ownership %	Shares	Value
2026-06-30	Blackrock Inc.	8.3%	14,737,381	$805.55M
2026-06-30	State Street Corporation	4.4%	7,773,746	$424.91M
2026-06-30	Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd	8.3%	14,861,212	$869.53M
2026-06-30	Vanguard Capital Management LLC	3.9%	6,936,364	$405.85M
2026-06-30	Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC	3.8%	6,823,168	$399.22M
2026-06-30	Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc.	3.3%	5,828,919	$341.05M
2026-06-30	Morgan Stanley	2.7%	4,772,611	$279.25M
2026-06-30	Van Eck Associates Corporation	2.6%	4,565,313	$267.12M

Historical Analogs

ExperimentalLimited sample (20 analogs) — low signal until more accrue

The co_* company substrate is new — price history is 2y but forward-only families (estimates, sentiment, options) are days old. This matcher runs on price features only and is LOW-SIGNAL until more history accrues and calibration validates it. (523 price rows)

Matcher: 2026.06.1-price5d-recency365Analogs: 20 / 523 daysAs-of: 2026-09-11Avg distance: 0.92

Forward 5-Day

Mean-1.40%

Median-6.83%

% Positive39.3%

P25 / P75-10.45% / 9.09%

95% CI[-6.37%, 3.98%]

n18

Forward 20-Day

Mean+8.74%

Median+15.13%

% Positive66.3%

P25 / P75-2.13% / 22.32%

95% CI[1.74%, 15.05%]

n18

Regime Distribution of Analogs

CAUTIOUS: 10RISK-ON: 2RISK-OFF: 3TRANSITIONAL: 5

Regime-conditional breakdown (click to expand)

CAUTIOUS (10)

5d mean: +4.96%

20d mean: +16.02%

RISK-ON (2)

Insufficient data

RISK-OFF (3)

Insufficient data

TRANSITIONAL (5)

5d mean: -0.37%

20d mean: +4.42%

Drawdown Read — MP

Single-nameuncalibrated

The market drawdown read, beta-amplified for MP, plus this name's own fragility (weak fundamentals + downtrend + elevated vol). A probabilistic risk read — not a prediction or timing trigger.

Per-name Drawdown (20d)

25low

market read: 44

as of 2026-09-11

Beta (60d)

2.47

Name Fragility

-0.26

quality 0.76 · 50d SMA +0.0%

Realized-vol %ile (1y)

How the read is built

Beta × market drawdown-0.596

Realized-vol percentile-0.366

Name fragility (quality + trend)-0.131

credit amplifier+0.000

Directional Read — MP

Single-nameuncalibrated

A transparent tally of MP's own positioning + technicals (gamma zone, regime, 50d trend, RSI, screener direction). A directional read, not a prediction or trade signal — and deliberately not blended into any score.

Bias (5d reference)

neutral

as of 2026-09-11

Agreement

50%medium

4 rules voting

Beta bucket

high

grading grain

How the read is built

Gamma zone vs flip▼ bear

Price-action regimeabstain

50d SMA trend• neutral

RSI (mean-reversion)• neutral

Screener direction▲ bull

FinRep-AI Brief — MP

Single-nameuncalibrated

No per-name brief yet for MP.

Per-name AI briefs are disabled (the operator gates them behind a budget switch).

Market Regime Context

Market / index-level — not MP-specific

Market-wide backdrop for context. These describe the SPY / index regime, not MP directly.

Drawdown Risk (20d)

44low

as of 2026-09-11

Regime & Fragility

CAUTIOUS

Air pocket: watch

2/5 triggers · price near put wall (0.785% above); breadth non-confirmation (SPY near 20d high, breadth 37.5 < 50 and < trailing median 54.1)

SPY Gamma Flip

+0.66%to flip

Above flip — long-gamma (dampens moves)

Top drawdown-risk contributors

ofr fsi funding-0.3010y real yield+0.26Financial conditions (NFCI)-0.1510y breakeven inflation+0.12

A transparent z-score composite over credit / rate / inflation levels plus dealer net-gamma. A probabilistic RISK gauge, not a predictor or timing trigger.

Watchlist visibility

MP is pinned to the Companies dropdown. Demoting removes it from the dropdown and stops 5-min intraday quote collection, but preserves all history.