Tesla, Inc.

TSLAConsumer CyclicalAuto Manufacturers

Exchange: NMSCurrency: USDCountry: United StatesMkt Cap: $1.22TShares: 3.95B

Pinned to watchlist

price ✓fundamentals ✓earnings ✓estimates ✓options ✓sentiment ✓corp events ✓ownership ✓

Price

$309.22

Adj close · 2026-07-27

5D return

-18.40%

1-day

-1.22%

5-day

-17.83%

20-day

-20.54%

High $378.93Low $309.22Return -18.40%5 pts

Open

$313.24

High

$317.00

Low

$304.28

$309.22

Adj Close

$309.22

Volume (sum)

43.7M

RSI (14)

27.3

Oversold

Realized Vol (20d ann.)

79.2%

99th pctile (1y)

Beta (60d)

3.04

vs SPY

ATR%

5.96%

ATR $18.44

vs SMA 20

-19.7%

vs SMA 50

-22.7%

vs SMA 200

-25.3%

vs 52w High

—

Signals — TSLA

at-a-glance

RSI (14)

27.3

Oversold

IV Rank

79th pctile

Beta (60d)

3.04

vs SPY

RS vs SPY

0.83

vs sector 0.98

Gamma

Below put wall — unhedged

Call $330.00 · Put $310.00

NBBO Spread

3.0bps

live NBBO bid/ask

Drawdown Risk

low · uncalibrated

Gamma Rail

ready

Gamma Rail — TSLA (Near-term)

Below put wall — unhedged

TSLA $309.22▼

Put Wall
$310.00

Call Wall
$315.00

ZGL
$312.30

+5.78 to call+0.78 to put+3.08 to ZGLChain net-Γ -0.02B

Gamma by strike (top 20)

$290.00

-0.00BC 116 / P 5,836

$295.00

-0.00BC 64 / P 3,068

$297.50

-0.00BC 119 / P 1,395

$300.00

-0.00BC 533 / P 4,851

$302.50

-0.00BC 198 / P 2,512

$305.00

-0.00BC 812 / P 4,106

$307.50

-0.01BC 1,237 / P 3,621

$310.00

-0.01BC 6,189 / P 7,850

$312.50

+0.00BC 3,094 / P 1,513

$315.00

+0.00BC 8,271 / P 4,839

$320.00

+0.00BC 6,488 / P 5,570

$322.50

+0.00BC 5,360 / P 1,428

$325.00

+0.00BC 5,260 / P 2,721

$327.50

+0.00BC 2,799 / P 896

$330.00

+0.00BC 9,053 / P 1,520

$332.50

+0.00BC 2,619 / P 596

$335.00

+0.00BC 4,703 / P 1,037

$337.50

+0.00BC 2,485 / P 377

$340.00

+0.00BC 5,973 / P 987

$350.00

+0.00BC 29,136 / P 1,342

Near-term grain — front 1-2 expirations only. Tighter walls reflect the gamma the dealer desk is hedging this week; the Wide grain smooths across ~5 expirations.

Options / Vol

ready

ATM IV

55.7%

2026-07-27

IV Rank

79th pctile

Implied Move

±3.3%

Put/Call OI

1.36

25Δ Skew

0.15%

Flat

Term Slope

0.0076

Contango

Total OI

3.2M

OI Velocity

-256,103

IV Rank trend

ATM IV trend

Put/Call trend

25Δ Skew trend

Implied Move trend

Total OI trend

OI Velocity trend

Sentiment

ready

Avg Score (7d)

-0.10

2026-07-27

Articles

7d window

Positive

Negative

Avg score trend (4d)

Article count trend (30d)

Estimates & Revisions

ready

EPS Consensus

$0.46

2026-07-27

7d Revision

$-0.09

30d Revision

$-0.08

Price Target

$401.07

$125–$600 range

Analyst ratings (46 total)

Strong Buy 6Buy 17Hold 17Sell 4Strong Sell 250% bull

EPS consensus trend (29d)

Price target trend (29d)

Earnings

ready

Next: 2026-10-2185d awayest. — subject to change

EPS surprise trend (11 prints)

Date	When	EPS Est	EPS Act	Surprise	Gap%	+1d	+5d	+10d
2026-07-22	—	$0.54	—	—	-1.30%	-1.30%	—	—
2026-04-22	—	$0.20	$0.13	$-0.35	+0.28%	+0.28%	-2.69%	+0.76%
2026-01-28	—	$0.34	$0.24	$-0.29	+0.13%	+0.13%	-2.07%	-1.32%
2025-10-22	—	$0.44	$0.39	$-0.11	-0.82%	-0.82%	+4.06%	+0.38%
2025-07-23	—	$0.30	$0.33	+$0.10	+0.14%	+0.14%	-3.28%	-7.04%
2025-04-22	—	$0.35	$0.12	$-0.66	+4.60%	+4.60%	+25.66%	+23.19%
2025-01-29	—	$0.77	$0.73	$-0.05	-2.26%	-2.26%	-1.48%	-17.48%
2024-10-23	—	$0.50	$0.62	+$0.24	-1.98%	-1.98%	+19.06%	+15.36%
2024-07-23	—	$0.62	$0.52	$-0.16	-2.04%	-2.04%	-7.72%	-20.93%
2024-04-23	—	$0.49	$0.45	$-0.08	—	—	—	—
2024-01-24	—	$0.74	$0.71	$-0.04	—	—	—	—
2023-10-18	—	$0.73	$0.66	$-0.10	—	—	—	—

Fundamentals + Quality Gate

ready

✗

Deep quality gate: Fail

free cash flow $-1099M < 0 (FCF negative TTM)
debt/equity 18.5x > ceiling 5.0x (balance-sheet risk)

Revenue

$28.24B

Gross Margin

16.8%

Operating Margin

1.4%

Net Margin

3.9%

Free Cash Flow

-$1.10B

Net Income

$1.11B

Debt/Equity

0.19

EPS Diluted

$0.32

2026-06-30

Quarterly history (8 periods)

Period	Revenue	Gross%	Op%	Net%	FCF
2026-06-30	$28.24B	16.8%	1.4%	3.9%	-$1.10B
2026-03-31	$22.39B	21.1%	4.2%	2.1%	$1.44B
2025-12-31	$24.90B	20.1%	6.3%	3.4%	$1.42B
2025-09-30	$28.09B	18.0%	6.6%	4.9%	$3.99B
2025-06-30	$22.50B	17.2%	4.1%	5.2%	$146.00M
2025-03-31	$19.34B	16.3%	2.5%	2.1%	$664.00M
2024-12-31	—	—	—	—	—
2024-09-30	—	—	—	—	—

Revenue trend

Gross margin trend

Net margin trend

FCF trend

Ownership

ready

Short Interest

Short % Float

2.0%

2026-07-27

Days to Cover

1.6

Shares Short

70.6M

Recent Insider Transactions

Date	Insider	Type	Shares	Value
2026-07-27	MUSK ELON REEVE	—	303,960,630	$7.09B
2026-07-27	TANEJA VAIBHAV	—	2,605	$1.05M
2026-07-27	WILSON - THOMPSON KATHLEEN	—	40,948	$613.8K
2026-07-27	ZHU XIAOTONG	—	20,000	$411.4K
2026-07-27	MURDOCH JAMES RUPERT	—	60,000	$26.72M
2026-07-27	MUSK KIMBAL J	—	56,820	$25.61M

Corporate Events

Date	Type	Amount	Description
2022-08-25	split	3.0000	Stock split 3:1
2020-08-31	split	5.0000	Stock split 5:1

Historical Analogs

ExperimentalLimited sample (20 analogs) — low signal until more accrue

The co_* company substrate is new — price history is 2y but forward-only families (estimates, sentiment, options) are days old. This matcher runs on price features only and is LOW-SIGNAL until more history accrues and calibration validates it. (538 price rows)

Matcher: 2026.06.1-price5d-recency365Analogs: 20 / 538 daysAs-of: 2026-07-27Avg distance: 1.84

Forward 5-Day

Mean-1.18%

Median-0.70%

% Positive49.7%

P25 / P75-4.11% / 3.52%

95% CI[-5.16%, 1.90%]

n19

Forward 20-Day

Mean+14.25%

Median+5.81%

% Positive71.1%

P25 / P75-3.18% / 34.52%

95% CI[6.24%, 22.06%]

n19

Regime Distribution of Analogs

CAUTIOUS: 13TRANSITIONAL: 5RISK-OFF: 1RISK-ON: 1

Regime-conditional breakdown (click to expand)

CAUTIOUS (13)

5d mean: -1.21%

20d mean: +18.57%

TRANSITIONAL (5)

Insufficient data

RISK-OFF (1)

Insufficient data

RISK-ON (1)

Insufficient data

Drawdown Read — TSLA

Single-nameuncalibrated

The market drawdown read, beta-amplified for TSLA, plus this name's own fragility (weak fundamentals + downtrend + elevated vol). A probabilistic risk read — not a prediction or timing trigger.

Per-name Drawdown (20d)

40low

market read: 43

as of 2026-07-27

Beta (60d)

3.00

clamped

Name Fragility

+0.00

quality 0.51 · 50d SMA -0.2%

Realized-vol %ile (1y)

How the read is built

Beta × market drawdown-0.879

Realized-vol percentile+0.491

Name fragility (quality + trend)+0.001

credit amplifier+0.000

Directional Read — TSLA

Single-nameuncalibrated

A transparent tally of TSLA's own positioning + technicals (gamma zone, regime, 50d trend, RSI, screener direction). A directional read, not a prediction or trade signal — and deliberately not blended into any score.

Bias (5d reference)

bearish

as of 2026-07-27

Agreement

50%medium

4 rules voting

Beta bucket

high

grading grain

How the read is built

Gamma zone vs flip▼ bear

Price-action regimeabstain

50d SMA trend• neutral

RSI (mean-reversion)▲ bull

Screener direction▼ bear

FinRep-AI Brief — TSLA

Single-nameuncalibrated

No per-name brief yet for TSLA.

Per-name AI briefs are disabled (the operator gates them behind a budget switch).

Market Regime Context

Market / index-level — not TSLA-specific

Market-wide backdrop for context. These describe the SPY / index regime, not TSLA directly.

Drawdown Risk (20d)

43low

as of 2026-07-28

Regime & Fragility

TRANSITIONAL

Air pocket: watch

2/5 triggers · dealer gamma bearish (γ-sent Bearish); price at/through put wall (-0.097%)

SPY Gamma Flip

-0.23%to flip

Below flip — short-gamma (amplifies moves)

Top drawdown-risk contributors

10y real yield+0.305y breakeven inflation-0.18Financial conditions (NFCI)-0.16Dealer net-gamma rank+0.16

A transparent z-score composite over credit / rate / inflation levels plus dealer net-gamma. A probabilistic RISK gauge, not a predictor or timing trigger.

Watchlist visibility

TSLA is pinned to the Companies dropdown. Demoting removes it from the dropdown and stops 5-min intraday quote collection, but preserves all history.