Auto-generated. This article is rebuilt from app/signals/config/signal_definitions.json by scripts/build_signals_kb.py. Edit the registry entry and re-run the script — do not edit this file directly.

Real Yield (10Y)

What it is

Real Yield (10Y) — registry key real_yield.

Classifier metric. See the bands table below for the band-by-band reading.

Data-pyramid tier

T1 — Signal. This metric sits at the signal layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

Horizon: 40-60d — the window this metric’s measured skill speaks to. A horizon stamp is an evidence claim, not a trading signal.

Evidence: Macro drawdown-lens leg: forward-maxdd correlation grows with horizon and peaks at 40-60d (breakeven_10y +0.28@20d -> +0.42@60d; ofr_fsi_funding ~+0.278, highest tested). FAILS clean walk-forward (single 2022 bear, in-sample; RT-3 falsifier open). Weak - ships labeled, never as a standalone forecast.

Source

Source module: inflation
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/inflation.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

Raw 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security (TIPS) yield from FRED series DFII10, in percentage points. The 10-year real yield is the nominal 10y Treasury yield minus 10y breakeven inflation — what investors earn after expected inflation, the canonical “real cost of money” for long-duration assets. Registry key is real_yield; the persisted column is real_yield_10y (registry field maps the two). Daily FRED publication. See app/sources/inflation.py:56 (_collect — _fetch_fred('DFII10')). The classifier bands (Accommodative / Neutral / Firm / Restrictive / Severely restrictive) are applied downstream via signal_defs.band_for('real_yield', value).

Where it surfaces

• API field: inflation.real_yield_10y on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/history time series
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)

Bands / thresholds

Classifier direction: lower_is_better.

Health-score / alignment role

• Health score component: real_yield (weight + math in app/signals/config/score_weights.json and app/signals/score.py).
• Contributes to: health_score.Real Yield

Release cadence

• Publishes: daily
• Approximate time (ET): 16:30
• Lag days: 1

Treasury TIPS series via FRED, business-day after close.

See also

• /kb/health-score — Health score — 0-100 composite.
• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.