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10Y breakeven

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10Y breakeven

What it is

10Y breakeven — registry key breakeven_10y.

10-year inflation breakeven from FRED; persisted on daily_signals.

Data-pyramid tier

T1 — Signal. This metric sits at the signal layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

Horizon: 40-60d — the window this metric’s measured skill speaks to. A horizon stamp is an evidence claim, not a trading signal.

Evidence: Macro drawdown-lens leg: forward-maxdd correlation grows with horizon and peaks at 40-60d (breakeven_10y +0.28@20d -> +0.42@60d; ofr_fsi_funding ~+0.278, highest tested). FAILS clean walk-forward (single 2022 bear, in-sample; RT-3 falsifier open). Weak - ships labeled, never as a standalone forecast.

Source

Source module: inflation
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/inflation.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

Fetched directly from the inflation source; see app/sources/inflation.py for the upstream API call.

Where it surfaces

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

FRED T10YIE breakeven series updates business-day after close; same cadence as breakeven_5y.

See also