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NFCI

What it is

NFCI — registry key nfci.

Classifier metric. See the bands table below for the band-by-band reading.

Data-pyramid tier

T1 — Signal. This metric sits at the signal layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

Horizon: 40-60d — the window this metric’s measured skill speaks to. A horizon stamp is an evidence claim, not a trading signal.

Evidence: Macro drawdown-lens leg: forward-maxdd correlation grows with horizon and peaks at 40-60d (breakeven_10y +0.28@20d -> +0.42@60d; ofr_fsi_funding ~+0.278, highest tested). FAILS clean walk-forward (single 2022 bear, in-sample; RT-3 falsifier open). Weak - ships labeled, never as a standalone forecast.

Source

Source module: macro_indicators
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/macro_indicators.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

Raw Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index from FRED series NFCI. NFCI is a weekly Friday-published composite of 105 financial-condition indicators (money-market, debt, equity, credit, and shadow-banking proxies); zero = the historical average, positive = tighter than average, negative = looser. The fetch also stores the FRED observation date in nfci_report_date for freshness consumers. See app/sources/macro_indicators.py:177 (_fetch_fred_with_date('NFCI')). The classifier bands (Very loose / Loose / Near average / Tightening / Tight) are applied downstream via signal_defs.band_for('nfci', value).

Where it surfaces

• API field: signals.nfci on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/history time series
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)

Bands / thresholds

Classifier direction: lower_is_better.

Health-score / alignment role

• Alignment category: credit, default weight 0.7 (see /kb/alignment for the 11-category framework).
• Contributes to: implication.credit

Release cadence

• Publishes: weekly
• Weekday: Wed (2)
• Approximate time (ET): 09:00
• Lag days: 7

Chicago Fed NFCI weekly; Wednesday release covering prior week’s data.

See also

• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.