Auto-generated. This article is rebuilt from app/signals/config/signal_definitions.json by scripts/build_signals_kb.py. Edit the registry entry and re-run the script — do not edit this file directly.

30Y bid-to-cover percentile (trailing 5y)

What it is

30Y bid-to-cover percentile (trailing 5y) — registry key auction_30y_b2c_pct_5y.

Percentile rank of the latest 30Y bid-to-cover against the trailing 5 years of 30Y auctions - high = well bid vs recent history. long-end supply-stress carrier, Phase 3A of improvements/long-end-stress.md; scoring deferred to a pre-registered study. Nominal coupons only; TIPS are excluded via inflation_index_security (Fiscal Data labels 30Y TIPS ‘Bond’, 10Y TIPS ‘Note’).

Data-pyramid tier

T1 — Signal. This metric sits at the signal layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: treasury_auctions
Data source: computed

Derived metric — produced inside the platform (app/sources/treasury_auctions.py or equivalent) rather than fetched as a raw upstream value. See the How it's computed section below for the formula.

How it’s computed

Midrank percentile (0-100) of the latest 30Y bid_to_cover within the trailing-5y (from the latest auction date) window of the auction_30y_bid_to_cover series. See app/sources/treasury_auctions.py:latest_auction_carriers / pct_rank_of.

Where it surfaces

• API field: us_supply.auctions.30y.b2c_pct_5y on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

• Publishes: ad_hoc
• Lag days: 1

US Treasury coupon auction, per auction day (event-driven).

See also

• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.