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AAII Bull-Bear Spread

What it is

AAII Bull-Bear Spread — registry key aaii_spread.

Sentiment extremes are contrarian setup signals. Used by squeeze_setup composite + transitions.

Data-pyramid tier

T1 — Signal. This metric sits at the signal layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: aaii
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/aaii.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

AAII Bull − Bear sentiment spread, in percentage points: aaii_bull_pct − aaii_bear_pct. Contrarian: extreme positive (>+20) = retail euphoria; extreme negative (<−20) = retail despair.

Where it surfaces

• API field: positioning.aaii.bull_bear_spread on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)

Bands / thresholds

Classifier direction: range_is_better.

Health-score / alignment role

Display-only — has bands for surface labeling but does not contribute to the health score (scoring is handled by a companion metric).

Release cadence

• Publishes: weekly
• Weekday: Thu (3)
• Approximate time (ET): 10:30
• Lag days: 0

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: survey week ends Wednesday; results published Thursday morning ET.

See also

• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.