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Foreign holdings of US Treasuries (total)

What it is

Foreign holdings of US Treasuries (total) — registry key tic_foreign_total_bn.

All-foreign total holdings of US Treasuries (Treasury TIC Grand Total, monthly, ~2-month lag). The aggregate foreign bid the thesis watches for a price-insensitive-holder exit. long-end supply-stress carrier, Phase 3B of improvements/long-end-stress.md; scoring deferred to a pre-registered study.

Data-pyramid tier

T0 — Raw input. This metric sits at the raw input layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: debt_holders
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/debt_holders.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

Latest value of the macro_series tic_foreign_total_bn series (Treasury TIC Grand Total, USD bn, month-end), rounded to 1dp. data_only carrier. See app/sources/debt_holders.py.

Where it surfaces

• API field: debt_holders.tic_foreign_total_bn on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

• Publishes: monthly
• Lag days: 1

Treasury TIC slt_table5, monthly, ~2-month lag; month-end obs_date.