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2s10s Curve

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2s10s Curve

What it is

2s10s Curve — registry key curve_2s10s.

Yield curve shape is a slow-moving recession indicator; informational context alongside credit signals.

Data-pyramid tier

T1 — Signal. This metric sits at the signal layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: credit
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/credit.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

Treasury 2s10s spread = tnx_close (10y) − dgs2 (2y), in percent. Raw 2y from FRED series DGS2; 10y from existing tnx_close. See app/sources/credit.py.

Where it surfaces

Bands / thresholds

Classifier direction: higher_is_better.

Range Label Dot Implication Points
— Healthy slope favorable BULLISH —
— Flat-ish leaning NEUTRAL —
— Flat neutral NEUTRAL —
— Inverting cautionary BEARISH —
— Inverted adverse BEARISH —

Health-score / alignment role

Display-only — has bands for surface labeling but does not contribute to the health score (scoring is handled by a companion metric).

Release cadence

cadence corrected 2026-06-12 (PR-4/L1-6): FRED T10Y2Y/DGS2 daily series, next-business-morning publication, stored value is T-1 (app/sources/credit.py); was mislabeled intraday.

See also