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Japan Treasury holdings 12-month change

What it is

Japan Treasury holdings 12-month change — registry key tic_japan_12m_chg_bn.

12-month change in Japan’s US Treasury holdings - the year-over-year foreign-bid direction on the largest foreign holder. long-end supply-stress carrier, Phase 3B of improvements/long-end-stress.md; scoring deferred to a pre-registered study.

Data-pyramid tier

T1 — Signal. This metric sits at the signal layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: debt_holders
Data source: computed

Derived metric — produced inside the platform (app/sources/debt_holders.py or equivalent) rather than fetched as a raw upstream value. See the How it's computed section below for the formula.

How it’s computed

Latest macro_series tic_japan_bn value minus the observation nearest 365 days earlier (within a 40-day tolerance for the monthly cadence); NULL on gap (never 0). Pure change_over_days in app/sources/debt_holders.py.

Where it surfaces

• API field: debt_holders.tic_japan_12m_chg_bn on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

• Publishes: monthly
• Lag days: 1

Recomputed each cycle from the full macro_series tic_japan_bn history.