How Alerts Work
The alert engine evaluates 59 defined alerts against every signal snapshot. Each alert follows a three-phase lifecycle:
Fire
The alert's trigger condition is met. It enters the active alert feed.
Active
The condition continues to hold. The alert remains visible until resolved.
Resolved
The underlying condition cleared automatically. Visible for 30 days.
Severity Levels
Immediate attention. Signals extreme stress or a crash setup. 12 alerts
Conditions deteriorating. Worth monitoring and adjusting exposure. 40 alerts
Positive signal or notable event. No action needed. 7 alerts
View live alert history at /alerts.
Consume alerts via API: /alerts/active, /alerts/summary, /agents/stream (SSE for real-time regime changes and critical alerts).
Alert Catalog
59 alerts across 10 categories.
Dark Pool (6)
Institutional buying/selling activity in dark pools, plus dealer gamma exposure direction changes.
Fires when GEX flips from positive to negative (crosses below 0).
GEX flipped negative to {gex:.1f}B — dealer hedging now amplifies moves.
Fires when GEX flips from negative to positive (crosses above 0).
GEX flipped positive to {gex:.1f}B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
Fires when DIX >= 0.48, indicating strong dark pool buying activity.
DIX at {dix:.3f} — strong dark pool buying activity.
Fires when DIX drops below 0.40 (was previously >= 0.40).
DIX dropped below 0.40 to {dix:.3f} — institutional demand weakening.
Fires when DIX drops below 0.45 (was previously >= 0.45).
DIX dropped below 0.45 to {dix:.3f} — institutional buying support fading.
Fires when GEX declines below 1.0B (was previously >= 1.0B).
GEX declined below 1.0B to {gex:.1f}B — dealer gamma cushion thinning.
Credit & Yield (7)
High-yield spreads, real yields, yield curve shape, NFCI financial conditions, and HYG volume stress.
Fires when HY OAS exceeds 3.5%.
HY OAS widened to {hy_oas:.2f}% — credit markets showing stress.
Fires when HY OAS exceeds 4.5%.
HY OAS at {hy_oas:.2f}% — significant credit stress, risk of contagion.
Fires when the 2s10s Treasury spread goes negative (yield curve inverts).
2s10s spread at {two_ten_spread:.2f}% — yield curve inverted, recession signal.
Fires when the 10Y real yield exceeds 2.0%.
10Y real yield at {real_yield_10y:.2f}% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
Fires when the 10Y real yield exceeds 2.5%.
10Y real yield at {real_yield_10y:.2f}% — severely restrictive, risk of credit event rises.
Fires when NFCI exceeds 0 (tighter than average).
NFCI at {nfci:.3f} — financial conditions tighter than average, headwind for risk assets.
Fires when HYG volume ratio exceeds 2.0x normal.
HYG volume ratio at {hyg_volume_ratio:.1f}x — institutional credit selling well above normal.
Breadth (4)
Market participation breadth across S&P 500 stocks and GICS sectors.
Fires when less than 30% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day SMA.
Only {pct_above_50sma:.0f}% of S&P 500 above 50d SMA — narrow market.
Fires when less than 20% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day SMA.
Just {pct_above_50sma:.0f}% above 50d SMA — breadth collapse, broad selling.
Fires when breadth crosses above 50% (was previously below 50%).
Breadth crossed above 50% ({pct_above_50sma:.0f}% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
Fires when there is a wide spread between the strongest and weakest sector breadth readings.
Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
Volatility (11)
VIX levels and term structure, SKEW tail-risk, VVIX vol-of-vol, gamma walls, zero gamma level, and 0DTE options activity.
Fires when VIX term structure flips from contango to backwardation.
VIX term structure flipped to backwardation — near-term fear exceeding long-term.
Fires when VIX closes above 30.
VIX spiked to {vix_close:.1f} — elevated volatility regime.
Fires when VIX closes above 40.
VIX at {vix_close:.1f} — extreme fear, potential capitulation.
Fires when SPY drops below the Zero Gamma Level (computed from dealer positioning).
SPY ({spy_close:.2f}) dropped below ZGL ({spy_zgl:.2f}) — expect amplified downside moves.
Fires when SPY climbs back above the Zero Gamma Level.
SPY ({spy_close:.2f}) reclaimed ZGL ({spy_zgl:.2f}) — volatility dampening resumes.
Fires when SPY price approaches the gamma call wall or put wall strike level.
SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
Fires when SKEW index exceeds 140.
SKEW at {skew_close:.0f} — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
Fires when SKEW index exceeds 160.
SKEW at {skew_close:.0f} — extreme tail-risk pricing, markets bracing for large move.
Fires when VVIX exceeds 110.
VVIX spiked to {vvix_close:.1f} — volatility-of-volatility elevated, expect choppy conditions.
Fires when the VVIX/VIX ratio exceeds 6.0.
VVIX/VIX ratio at {vvix_vix_ratio:.1f} — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
Fires when 0DTE put/call ratio exceeds 1.8.
0DTE put/call ratio at {zero_dte_pcr:.2f} — extreme hedging activity.
Energy (6)
WTI crude, crack spreads, energy regime classification, and oil market structure.
Fires when the energy regime shifts between STABLE, ELEVATED, SHOCK, or CRISIS.
Energy regime shifted from {prev_energy_regime} to {energy_regime} — monitor crude and refining margins.
Fires when the 3-2-1 crack spread exceeds $35/bbl.
3-2-1 crack spread at ${crack_spread:.2f}/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
Fires when WTI crude exceeds $95.
WTI crude at ${wti_close:.2f} — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
Fires when WTI crude exceeds $100.
WTI crude at ${wti_close:.2f} — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
Fires when energy regime contains SHOCK and crack spread exceeds $30/bbl.
Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime {energy_regime} with crack spread at ${crack_spread:.2f}/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
Fires when USO exceeds $75 or USO has a sharp single-day spike.
Oil spike alert: USO at ${uso_close} — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
Inflation (4)
Breakeven inflation rates, stagflation risk score, and inflation curve shape.
Fires when 5Y breakeven inflation exceeds 2.5%.
5Y breakeven inflation at {breakeven_5y:.2f}% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
Fires when the breakeven curve inverts: 5Y > 10Y > 5Y5Y forward.
Breakeven curve inverted: 5Y {breakeven_5y:.2f}% > 10Y {breakeven_10y:.2f}% > 5Y5Y {breakeven_5y5y:.2f}% — classic stagflation-fear signature, near-term inflation expectations exceed long-run.
Fires when the stagflation risk score exceeds 50/100.
Stagflation risk score at {stagflation_score:.0f}/100 — elevated inflation expectations with growth concerns.
Fires when the stagflation risk score exceeds 75/100.
Stagflation risk score at {stagflation_score:.0f}/100 — breakeven rates signaling entrenched inflation.
Correlations (5)
Cross-asset correlation regimes (SPY/VIX, SPY/Oil), carry trade unwinds, and copper/gold growth signal.
Fires when a key cross-asset correlation regime breaks (SPY/VIX, SPY/DXY, SPY/TNX, or SPY/Oil).
Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
Fires when SPY-Oil correlation turns strongly negative during energy stress (crude shock propagating into equities).
Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at {corr_spy_oil} with energy in {energy_regime} — crude shock propagating into equities.
Fires when Copper/Gold 20-day rate of change falls below -5%.
Copper/Gold 20d RoC at {copper_gold_20d_roc:.1f}% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
Fires when USD/JPY 5-day rate of change falls below -3%.
USD/JPY 5d RoC at {usdjpy_5d_roc:.1f}% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
Fires when USD/JPY 5-day rate of change falls below -5%.
USD/JPY 5d RoC at {usdjpy_5d_roc:.1f}% — aggressive yen carry unwind, global de-risking risk.
Liquidity (1)
Fed net liquidity (WALCL minus TGA minus RRP) direction.
Fires when the Fed net liquidity signal reads "Contracting".
Fed net liquidity contracting — headwind for risk assets.
Regime & Composite (13)
Multi-signal composite alerts, regime transitions, cascade stages, and pattern-matching setups.
Fires when the market regime shifts (e.g., RISK-ON to CAUTIOUS, CAUTIOUS to RISK-OFF).
Regime shifted from {prev_regime} to {regime}.
Fires when 6 or more cascade stress indicators are active simultaneously.
Cascade active count at {cascade_active_count} — multiple stress indicators active, regime transition risk elevated.
Fires when the transmission cascade reaches stage 5 or higher.
Transmission cascade at stage {cascade_stage} — stress propagating across multiple channels.
Fires when the transmission cascade reaches stage 8 or higher.
Transmission cascade at stage {cascade_stage} — deep stress propagation, systemic risk elevated.
Fires when DIX >= 0.45, GEX > 0, HY OAS < 3.0%, and breadth > 50% all hold simultaneously.
Full bullish alignment: DIX {dix:.3f}, GEX +{gex:.1f}B, HY OAS {hy_oas:.2f}%, breadth {pct_above_50sma:.0f}%.
Fires when DIX < 0.42, GEX < 0, and HY OAS > 3.5% all hold simultaneously.
Bearish alignment: DIX {dix:.3f}, GEX {gex:.1f}B, HY OAS {hy_oas:.2f}% — defensive posture warranted.
Fires when DIX < 0.42 (institutions pulling back), breadth > 50%, and VIX < 20 (calm surface).
Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX {dix:.3f}) despite calm surface (VIX {vix_close:.1f}, breadth {pct_above_50sma:.0f}%).
Fires when GEX < -2B, HY OAS > 4.0%, and breadth < 30% all hold simultaneously.
CRASH SETUP: deeply negative GEX ({gex:.1f}B), credit stress (HY OAS {hy_oas:.2f}%), breadth collapse ({pct_above_50sma:.0f}%).
Fires when DIX >= 0.47 (strong demand), VIX > 25 (elevated fear), and breadth < 35% (washed-out).
Potential buying opportunity: strong institutional demand (DIX {dix:.3f}) with elevated fear (VIX {vix_close:.1f}) and washed-out breadth ({pct_above_50sma:.0f}%).
Fires when energy regime is SHOCK, HY OAS > 3.5%, and breadth < 50% all hold simultaneously.
Consumer pressure trifecta: energy {energy_regime}, credit stress (HY OAS {hy_oas:.2f}%), weakening breadth ({pct_above_50sma:.0f}%).
Fires when health score falls below 40 while cascade stage is 3 or higher.
Health score at {health_score:.0f} with cascade stage {cascade_stage} — rapid deterioration in market structure.
Fires when NFCI > 0 (tight conditions) while health score reads above 60.
Divergence: NFCI at {nfci:.3f} (tight) while health score reads {health_score:.0f} — financial conditions may be a leading headwind.
Fires when health score < 35, VIX > 25, and DIX < 0.42 all hold simultaneously.
Pattern matches bearish historical setups: low health score ({health_score:.0f}), elevated VIX ({vix_close:.1f}), weak DIX ({dix:.3f}) — analogues suggest elevated downside risk.
Alignment (2)
Signal-price alignment divergence alerts comparing signal category implications to SPY direction.
Fires when 5+ of 12 signal categories disagree with SPY's 5-day trend. 48-hour cooldown between fires.
Signal-price divergence: {divergent_count}/12 signals disagree with SPY's {spy_5d_direction} trend — structural repricing risk elevated.
Fires when 3+ of 7 leading indicators disagree with SPY's 5-day trend. 48-hour cooldown between fires.
Leading indicator divergence: {leading_divergent_count}/7 leading signals disagree with SPY's {spy_5d_direction} trend — historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.