Auto-generated. This article is rebuilt from app/signals/config/signal_definitions.json by scripts/build_signals_kb.py. Edit the registry entry and re-run the script — do not edit this file directly.

SPY next-1d return

What it is

SPY next-1d return — registry key spy_next_1d_rtn.

Realized forward return persisted for matcher calibration. No bands, no implication, no health-score contribution — used as the ground-truth target the base-rates matcher predicts.

Source

Source module: capture
Data source: computed

Derived metric — produced inside the platform (app/signals/capture.py or equivalent) rather than fetched as a raw upstream value. See the How it's computed section below for the formula.

How it’s computed

Realized SPY 1-day forward return: (spy_close[T+1] − spy_close[T]) / spy_close[T], stored as a fraction (e.g. 0.0042 = +0.42%). Backfilled onto row T when row T+1’s spy_close lands. See app/signals/capture.py:329 — _backfill_forward_returns. Used by the base-rates matcher as the prediction target.

Where it surfaces

• API field: signals.spy_next_1d_rtn on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/history time series

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

• Publishes: daily
• Lag days: 1

Backfilled onto row T when row T+1’s spy_close lands — one trading day lag.

See also

• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.