Auto-generated. This article is rebuilt from app/signals/config/alert_thresholds.json by scripts/build_alerts_kb.py. Edit the alert config and re-run the script — do not edit this file directly.

Crack Spread Spike

Alert ID: CRACK_SPREAD_SPIKE
Category: energy
Cross-detection: no

Severity

WARNING — conditions deteriorating; worth monitoring

Trigger condition

{
  "type": "computed",
  "computation": "vol_scaled_spike",
  "field": "crack_spread",
  "value": 35,
  "_registry_band_intentional": true,
  "_intentional_reason": "Mid-band early-warning between elevated (25) and extreme (40). Recalibrated 2026-07 (audit item #8) \u2014 see REAL_YIELD_RESTRICTIVE's condition comment for the pattern. crack_spread > 35 alone fired on 7/10 audited days from a stable elevated level; now requires clearing that same 35 floor AND a >=1.75-sigma break from the 20d baseline (app/signals/alerts.py:_vol_scaled_fires)."
}

crack_spread > 35 AND its deviation from the trailing 20-trading-day baseline exceeds the vol-scaled sigma multiplier (_VOL_SCALED_K in app/signals/alerts.py:_vol_scaled_fires). Falls back to the floor alone when no baseline was injected (missing history, <10 observations, or zero variance — see app/signals/capture.py:_inject_alert_baselines).

Message template

3-2-1 crack spread at ${crack_spread:.2f}/bbl {_crack_spread_baseline_note}, floor $35.00/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.

Rendered with the current signals dict via Python str.format. Placeholders that fail to resolve fall back to the raw template (see _format_message in app/signals/alerts.py).

Cooldown / dedup

• Cooldown: none. Re-evaluation on every cycle.
• Dedup: at most one active (or acknowledged) row per alert_id at a time. Re-firing while active updates fired_at and the message but keeps the original first_fired_at.

Notifies

• Active alert feed (/api/v1/alerts/active, /alerts/summary).
• SSE stream (/api/v1/agents/stream) for real-time consumers.
• alert_fired webhook on first fire.
• alert_resolved webhook when the condition clears (non-cross-detection alerts only).

See also

• Signal fields referenced: crack_spread (see the signals reference).
• Alert reference
• Live alerts feed