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AAII bullish %

What it is

AAII bullish % — registry key aaii_bull_pct.

Bands surface classification + transitions but the metric does not contribute to health score or alignment yet (Option A from the S4-R1-b decision tree). Wiring into the alignment positioning leg or score is a future B-stream PR that would require an ALIGNMENT_SCHEMA_VERSION / MATCHER_VERSION bump.

Data-pyramid tier

T1 — Signal. This metric sits at the signal layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: aaii
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/aaii.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey weekly bullish percentage (aaii_bull_pct). Raw survey reading published Thursday ~10:30 ET, persisted on daily_signals for the surrounding week. Bands derived from the production distribution (n=1321 rows, mean 35.0, p20 25.5, p33 30.4, p66 40.0, p80 44.1) plus the B6-followon big-move audit: low bull% precedes big-move days (both directions; <25 carries a 15.8% big-down rate at the 1.5% threshold vs 1.7% at ≥45). Higher reads as constructive (quieter tape, fewer big-downs); lower as a fear/uncertainty environment with elevated tail risk. Not contrarian-froth-on-the-upside (no U-shape in the data within the historical sample), so direction: higher_is_better rather than range_is_better.

Where it surfaces

• API field: positioning.aaii.bull_pct on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)
• Sparkline aliases: aaii_bull

Bands / thresholds

Classifier direction: higher_is_better.

Health-score / alignment role

Display-only — has bands for surface labeling but does not contribute to the health score (scoring is handled by a companion metric).

Release cadence

• Publishes: weekly
• Weekday: Thu (3)
• Approximate time (ET): 10:30
• Lag days: 0

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: survey week ends Wednesday; results published Thursday morning ET.

See also

• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.