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Fed hike probability

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Fed hike probability

What it is

Fed hike probability — registry key fed_hike_prob.

CME FedWatch implied rate-hike probability for the next FOMC; completes the hold/cut/hike triplet. CME 403-blocks datacenter IPs, so this series is honestly NULL most (often all) days rather than a fabricated estimate; the last-known CME print is served for up to 5 calendar days, stale-flagged, then NULL. The former FRED-implied fallback was removed 2026-09 – it emitted a deterministic, frozen value that is not a market-priced probability.

Data-pyramid tier

T0 — Raw input. This metric sits at the raw input layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: fedwatch
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/fedwatch.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

Fetched directly from the fedwatch source; see app/sources/fedwatch.py for the upstream API call.

Where it surfaces

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

See also