Auto-generated. This article is rebuilt from app/signals/config/signal_definitions.json by scripts/build_signals_kb.py. Edit the registry entry and re-run the script — do not edit this file directly.

Fed cut probability

What it is

Fed cut probability — registry key fed_cut_prob.

Composite Fed rate-cut probability from FRED + CME FedWatch.

Source

Source module: fedwatch
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/fedwatch.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

Fetched directly from the fedwatch source; see app/sources/fedwatch.py for the upstream API call.

Where it surfaces

• API field: signals.fed_cut_prob on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

• Publishes: intraday

See also

• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.