Auto-generated. This article is rebuilt from app/signals/config/signal_definitions.json by scripts/build_signals_kb.py. Edit the registry entry and re-run the script — do not edit this file directly.

Seasonal hit rate

What it is

Seasonal hit rate — registry key seasonal_hit_rate.

Seasonality source 20yr SPY positive-return frequency for the current month; raw percentage.

Source

Source module: seasonality
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/seasonality.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

Percentage of the trailing 20 instances of the current calendar month where SPY closed positive month-over-month. Drives the seasonal_signal categorical alongside seasonal_avg_return.

Where it surfaces

• API field: signals.seasonal_hit_rate on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)
• Surface: change markers in the rendered report

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

• Publishes: intraday

See also

• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.