Auto-generated. This article is rebuilt from app/signals/config/alert_thresholds.json by scripts/build_alerts_kb.py. Edit the alert config and re-run the script — do not edit this file directly.

Oil Market Backwardation Signal

Alert ID: CURVE_BACKWARDATION
Category: energy
Cross-detection: no

Severity

WARNING — conditions deteriorating; worth monitoring

Trigger condition

{
  "type": "and",
  "conditions": [
    {
      "field": "energy_regime",
      "op": "in",
      "value": [
        "SHOCK",
        "CRISIS",
        "SHOCK_UP",
        "RISING"
      ]
    },
    {
      "field": "crack_spread",
      "op": "gt",
      "value": 30
    }
  ],
  "_registry_band_intentional": true,
  "_intentional_reason": "Mid-band early-warning gated by energy_regime IN {SHOCK, CRISIS, SHOCK_UP, RISING} \u2014 fires earlier than the band edge when the regime is already stressed."
}

All of the following must hold:

• energy_regime in [“SHOCK”, “CRISIS”, “SHOCK_UP”, “RISING”]
• crack_spread > 30

Message template

Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime {energy_regime} with crack spread at ${crack_spread:.2f}/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.

Rendered with the current signals dict via Python str.format. Placeholders that fail to resolve fall back to the raw template (see _format_message in app/signals/alerts.py).

Cooldown / dedup

• Cooldown: none. Re-evaluation on every cycle.
• Dedup: at most one active (or acknowledged) row per alert_id at a time. Re-firing while active updates fired_at and the message but keeps the original first_fired_at.

Notifies

• Active alert feed (/api/v1/alerts/active, /alerts/summary).
• SSE stream (/api/v1/agents/stream) for real-time consumers.
• alert_fired webhook on first fire.
• alert_resolved webhook when the condition clears (non-cross-detection alerts only).

See also

• Signal fields referenced: energy_regime, crack_spread (no dedicated KB article yet — see /humans#signal-reference).
• Alert reference (legacy monolith)
• Live alerts feed