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2026-W37

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-10 06:02:12 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.479 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.30 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +5.1B strong suppression
Breadth πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 38% β€” narrow participation, rally is fragile
Energy βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Energy ELEVATED β€” watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +4.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.33 normal, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.46 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.77 dealer stress
Inflation βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Stagflation score 26 β€” moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d -1.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.67% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose

Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but gamma, correlations, and carry flash bullish β€” 4 of 6 signals refuse to confirm the decline.

Market Status

Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 70/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 70 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β€” breadth at 38% keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.479; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $763.14 | 50 SMA $758.02 | 200 SMA $713.18 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $585.0
  • QQQ: $716.51 | 50 SMA $711.17 | 200 SMA $658.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $649.0
  • IWM: $290.75 | 50 SMA $296.74 | 200 SMA $273.27 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $240.0
  • VIX: 16.33 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.837%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $763.14 43.46 15.4 $585.00 Bearish 2.20
QQQ $716.51 50.20 16.0 $649.00 Neutral 0.83
IWM $290.75 32.02 10.9 $240.00 Bearish 4.81

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 16.33 52.48 22.7 $10.00 None None
TNX 48.37 70.44 20.8 - - -
GLD $402.84 43.07 37.0 $402.17 Neutral 0.67
DXY 98.72 46.98 35.2 - - -
SLV $60.71 52.29 10.3 $45.15 Neutral 0.58

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.479
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.12B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 37.9%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.5%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 0/0
Health Care 59.3% 0/0
Technology 55.4% 0/0
Communication Services 52.6% 0/0
Financials 42.6% 0/0
Materials 33.3% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 27.1% 0/0
Consumer Staples 26.5% 0/0
Industrials 16.4% 0/0
Real Estate 15.4% 0/0
Utilities 13.3% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: ELEVATED
  • WTI Crude: $96.29 (5d: +5.5%)
  • Brent Crude: $101.32 | Spread: $5.03
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.3800/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.71/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $65.31
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.09

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.861 normal
SPY / DXY -0.33 normal
SPY / TNX -0.401 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.457 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $512.8B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $763.14)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.84%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.72
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,884B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,855B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,942 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.29 β€” energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.97 (vs 20d avg 134.06, +2.2Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~319h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~55h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [INFO] SPY (763.14) reclaimed ZGL (585.00) β€” volatility dampening resumes.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (96.02) for 5 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.55%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Portugal Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in August: Actual (0%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-consumer-price-index-mom-below-forecasts-01-in-august-actual-0-202609101000 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:00:17 GMT

[2] Portugal Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (3.3%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-consumer-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-forecasts-33-in-august-202609101000 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:00:17 GMT

[3] Ireland HICP (YoY) in line with expectations (3.4%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-hicp-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-34-in-august-202609101000 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:00:03 GMT

[4] Ireland HICP (MoM) in line with expectations (0.6%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-hicp-mom-in-line-with-expectations-06-in-august-202609101000 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:00:02 GMT

[5] Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0.1% to 0.7% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-consumer-price-index-mom-rose-from-previous-01-to-07-in-august-202609101000 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:00:01 GMT

[6] Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 3.4% to 3.7% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-consumer-price-index-yoy-climbed-from-previous-34-to-37-in-august-202609101000 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:00:01 GMT

[7] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP lose bullish momentum as structural support holds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-and-xrp-lose-bullish-momentum-as-structural-support-holds-202609101000 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:00:00 GMT

[8] The Yen is strengthening before our very eyes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-yen-is-strengthening-before-our-very-eyes-202609100957 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:57:14 GMT

[9] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $4,400 with Oil, yields surging URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-holds-below-4-400-with-oil-yields-surging-202609100956 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:56:43 GMT

[10] Turkish Lira: Liquidity stance key for TRY - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-liquidity-stance-key-for-try-commerzbank-202609100952 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:52:12 GMT

[11] Czech Koruna: CNB stance leaves room for weakness against Euro - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/czech-koruna-cnb-stance-leaves-room-for-weakness-against-euro-ing-202609100942 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:42:24 GMT

[12] US Dollar: Bond buybacks reshape yield dynamics - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-bond-buybacks-reshape-yield-dynamics-mufg-202609100932 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:32:43 GMT

[13] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609100930 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:30:42 GMT

[14] CHF/JPY price outlook: Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen pressing against 0.786 support arc URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/chf-jpy-price-outlook-swiss-franc-japanese-yen-pressing-against-0786-support-arc-202609100919 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:19:14 GMT

[15] Brent: Geopolitical risk drives price surge - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-geopolitical-risk-drives-price-surge-deutsche-bank-202609100918 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:18:02 GMT

[16] ECB in the market's focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ecb-in-the-markets-focus-202609100915 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:15:45 GMT

[17] Euro: Second hike seen as energy clouds outlook - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-second-hike-seen-as-energy-clouds-outlook-societe-generale-202609100909 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:09:14 GMT

[18] Euro remains steady vs Canadian Dollar ahead of key ECB decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-steady-vs-canadian-dollar-ahead-of-key-ecb-decision-202609100905 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:05:18 GMT

[19] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Positions above 1.3550, nine-day EMA support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-positions-above-13550-nine-day-ema-support-202609100904 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:04:17 GMT

[20] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Trades above 153.50 ahead of US inflation; bearish bias remains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-trades-above-15350-ahead-of-us-inflation-bearish-bias-remains-202609100903 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:03:54 GMT

[21] The debasement trade goes mainstream: Ether and Silver challenge the Dollar together URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/the-debasement-trade-goes-mainstream-ether-and-silver-challenge-the-dollar-together-202609100903 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:03:28 GMT

[22] Bitcoin edges lower for a 4th day, capped by the 50-week MA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-edges-lower-for-a-4th-day-capped-by-the-50-week-ma-202609100903 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:03:00 GMT

[23] Greece Industrial Production (YoY): -1.2% (July) vs previous 1.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-industrial-production-yoy-12-july-vs-previous-11-202609100859 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:59:51 GMT

[24] Swiss Franc gives back gains, but US Dollar struggles with Inflation data on tap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-gives-back-gains-but-us-dollar-struggles-with-inflation-data-on-tap-202609100854 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:54:19 GMT

[25] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates around 1.1640 in countdown to ECB's policy decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-consolidates-around-11640-in-countdown-to-ecbs-policy-decision-202609100849 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:49:01 GMT

[26] USD/CAD sellers eye a break below 1.3770 on potential CPI miss URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-cad-sellers-eye-a-break-below-13770-on-potential-cpi-miss-202609100847 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:47:23 GMT

[27] Turkish Lira: Easing path and carry appeal - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-easing-path-and-carry-appeal-ing-202609100846 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:46:55 GMT

[28] Euro in focus as Dollar weakness continues URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/euro-in-focus-as-dollar-weakness-continues-202609100846 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:46:35 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Iran lawmaker signals review of cooperation with IAEA Time: 2026-09-10T09:12:08.448Z

[2] Iranian protester still unable to walk despite 23 operations for gunshot wound Time: 2026-09-10T08:58:33.942Z

[3] Iran routed up to $2.5 billion via China sanctions workaround in past year - Reuters Time: 2026-09-10T08:55:55.582Z

[4] Iran's Defense Ministry teases new military capabilities Time: 2026-09-10T08:44:12.812Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 194 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β€” 10.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 300
  • Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS677 (+1254% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost