Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-10 08:02:40 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.479 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.30 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 38% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.33 normal, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.46 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.77 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -1.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.67% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but gamma, correlations, and carry flash bullish β 4 of 6 signals refuse to confirm the decline.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 70/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 70 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 38% keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.479; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $763.14 | 50 SMA $758.02 | 200 SMA $713.18 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $585.0
- QQQ: $716.51 | 50 SMA $711.17 | 200 SMA $658.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $649.0
- IWM: $290.75 | 50 SMA $296.74 | 200 SMA $273.27 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $240.0
- VIX: 16.33 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.837%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $763.14 | 43.46 | 15.4 | $585.00 | Bearish | 2.20 |
| QQQ | $716.51 | 50.20 | 16.0 | $649.00 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| IWM | $290.75 | 32.02 | 10.9 | $240.00 | Bearish | 4.81 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.33 | 52.48 | 22.7 | $10.00 | None | None |
| TNX | 48.37 | 70.44 | 20.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.84 | 43.07 | 37.0 | $402.17 | Neutral | 0.67 |
| DXY | 98.72 | 46.98 | 35.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.71 | 52.29 | 10.3 | $45.15 | Neutral | 0.58 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.479
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 37.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 55.4% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 42.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 26.5% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 16.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $96.29 (5d: +5.5%)
- Brent Crude: $101.32 | Spread: $5.03
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.71/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.31
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.09
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.861 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.33 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.401 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.457 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $512.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $763.14)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.84%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.72
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,884B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,855B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,854 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.29 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.97 (vs 20d avg 134.06, +2.2Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~319h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~55h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] SPY (763.14) reclaimed ZGL (585.00) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (96.02) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (24):
[1] Ripple Price Forecast: XRP sell-off risk deepens despite growing whale accumulation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-sell-off-risk-deepens-despite-growing-whale-accumulation-202609101200 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT
[2] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: RSI signals exhaustion after a steep 4% decline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-rsi-signals-exhaustion-after-a-steep-4-decline-202609101156 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:56:10 GMT
[3] Euro: Upside bias within defined band against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-upside-bias-within-defined-band-against-us-dollar-uob-202609101154 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:54:03 GMT
[4] Polish Zloty: Scope for weakness against Euro as NBP underwhelms - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-scope-for-weakness-against-euro-as-nbp-underwhelms-ing-202609101151 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:51:09 GMT
[5] United States Dollar Index turns positive ahead of US PPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-turns-positive-ahead-of-us-ppi-data-202609101144 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:44:56 GMT
[6] US Dollar: CPI and Fed path guide Greenback - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-cpi-and-fed-path-guide-greenback-bbh-202609101138 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:38:04 GMT
[7] Japanese Yen: Strength stabilising against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-strength-stabilising-against-us-dollar-uob-202609101124 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:24:30 GMT
[8] US Treasury yields hit fresh long-term highs amid surging Oil prices, bond buybacks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-treasury-yields-hit-fresh-long-term-highs-amid-surging-oil-prices-us-treasurys-buybacks-202609101124 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:24:10 GMT
[9] What is giving the Japanese Yen room to appreciate across Asia-Pacific currencies? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/what-is-giving-the-japanese-yen-room-to-appreciate-across-asia-pacific-currencies-202609101119 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:19:37 GMT
[10] Canadian Dollar weakens against US Dollar ahead of key US inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-weakens-against-us-dollar-ahead-of-key-us-inflation-data-202609101119 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:19:31 GMT
[11] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC pressured amid ETF outflows, fresh US-Iran risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-pressured-amid-etf-outflows-fresh-us-iran-risks-202609101111 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:11:50 GMT
[12] Euro: Yield support into ECB decision - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-yield-support-into-ecb-decision-mufg-202609101109 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:09:27 GMT
[13] Gold comes under pressure ahead of US PPI as Fed rate hike risks linger URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-comes-under-pressure-ahead-of-us-ppi-as-fed-rate-hike-risks-linger-202609101107 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:07:50 GMT
[14] US500 retests key support as CPI and geopolitical risks loom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us500-retests-key-support-as-cpi-and-geopolitical-risks-loom-202609101100 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:00:42 GMT
[15] Turkey CBRT Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (37%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-cbrt-interest-rate-decision-meets-forecasts-37-202609101100 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:00:16 GMT
[16] South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) increased to 1.1% in July from previous -1.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-manufacturing-production-index-yoy-increased-to-11-in-july-from-previous-17-202609101100 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:00:00 GMT
[17] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD tumbles below $66 as US Dollar recovers ahead of US PPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-tumbles-below-66-as-us-dollar-recovers-ahead-of-us-ppi-data-202609101059 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:59:43 GMT
[18] Storm brewing: Oil punches $97, Bonds force higher yields, and will Today's 30-year URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/storm-brewing-oil-punches-97-bonds-force-higher-yields-and-will-todays-30-year-202609101055 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:55:25 GMT
[19] Top Altcoins Price Forecast: Ripple, Solana, and Cardano risk deeper losses URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-altcoins-price-forecast-ripple-solana-and-cardano-risk-deeper-losses-202609101052 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:52:19 GMT
[20] Dollar comeback case 'a decent one' - September Fed hike 'back in play' URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-comeback-case-a-decent-one-september-fed-hike-back-in-play-202609101042 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:42:51 GMT
[21] Another down day URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/another-down-day-202609101041 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:41:18 GMT
[22] EUR rates rising? WTI falling despite attacks - Forex trading GBP/USD in rising wedge [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-rates-rising-wti-falling-despite-attacks-forex-trading-gbp-usd-in-rising-wedge-video-202609101010 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:10:03 GMT
[23] ECB quarter point settled with Dec left to today's projections URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ecb-quarter-point-settled-with-dec-left-to-todays-projections-202609101008 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:08:10 GMT
[24] Australian Dollar: Gradual upside within capped range against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-gradual-upside-within-capped-range-against-us-dollar-uob-202609101002 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 10:02:32 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Israel's Katz threatens heavy response to any Iranian attack Time: 2026-09-10T11:19:10.610Z
[2] Dubai airports capacity back to 84% of pre-war levels, CEO says Time: 2026-09-10T10:46:53.274Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 194 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 127
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS476 (+852% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost