Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-10 04:01:36 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.479 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.30 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 38% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.33 normal, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.46 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.77 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -1.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.67% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but gamma, correlations, and carry flash bullish β 4 of 6 signals refuse to confirm the decline.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 70/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 70 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 38% keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.479; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $763.14 | 50 SMA $758.02 | 200 SMA $713.18 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $585.0
- QQQ: $716.51 | 50 SMA $711.17 | 200 SMA $658.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $649.0
- IWM: $290.75 | 50 SMA $296.74 | 200 SMA $273.27 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $240.0
- VIX: 16.33 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.837%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $763.14 | 43.46 | 15.4 | $585.00 | Bearish | 2.20 |
| QQQ | $716.51 | 50.20 | 16.0 | $649.00 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| IWM | $290.75 | 32.02 | 10.9 | $240.00 | Bearish | 4.81 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.33 | 52.48 | 22.7 | $10.00 | None | None |
| TNX | 48.37 | 70.44 | 20.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.84 | 43.07 | 37.0 | $402.17 | Neutral | 0.67 |
| DXY | 98.72 | 46.98 | 35.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.71 | 52.29 | 10.3 | $45.15 | Neutral | 0.58 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.479
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 37.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 55.4% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 42.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 26.5% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 16.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $96.29 (5d: +5.5%)
- Brent Crude: $101.32 | Spread: $5.03
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.71/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.31
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.09
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.861 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.33 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.401 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.457 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $512.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $763.14)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.84%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.72
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,884B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,855B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,059 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.29 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.97 (vs 20d avg 134.06, +2.2Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~319h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~55h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] SPY (763.14) reclaimed ZGL (585.00) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (96.02) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) came in at 0%, above expectations (-0.6%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-industrial-output-wda-yoy-came-in-at-0-above-expectations-06-in-july-202609100800 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:00:17 GMT
[2] European Central Bank to resume interest rate hikes in September as inflation, energy risks rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-to-resume-interest-rate-hikes-in-september-as-inflation-energy-risks-rise-202609100800 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:00:00 GMT
[3] Japanese Yen: Structural support from regional flows - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-structural-support-from-regional-flows-bny-202609100758 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:58:55 GMT
[4] Australian Dollar struggles for direction against US Dollar with US PPI in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-struggles-for-direction-against-us-dollar-with-us-ppi-in-focus-202609100758 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:58:17 GMT
[5] Pepe Price Forecast: Whale distribution, mixed derivatives cap recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pepe-price-forecast-whale-distribution-mixed-derivatives-cap-recovery-202609100754 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:54:07 GMT
[6] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Holds losses below 99.00 as bearish bias prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-holds-losses-below-9900-as-bearish-bias-prevails-202609100753 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:53:24 GMT
[7] A head and shoulders pattern has been completed in EUR/JPY for a sell signal [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/a-head-and-shoulders-pattern-has-been-completed-in-eur-jpy-for-a-sell-signal-video-202609100745 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:45:07 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[BREAKING] [1] Iran-backed Houthis seize Yemen's Red Sea city of Mocha - Reuters Time: 2026-09-10T07:44:28.180Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-07-30, 42 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 7.1% of normal
- Throughput: 7.1% of normal (0.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 300
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost