Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-10 03:50:10 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.479 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.30 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 38% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.33 normal, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.46 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.77 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -1.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.67% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but gamma, correlations, and carry flash bullish β 4 of 6 signals refuse to confirm the decline.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 70/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 70 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 38% keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.479; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, PFE
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=166) | 3d 38% (n=166) | 5d 32% (n=166)
- Screener Board Record: 361 closed (hit rate 46%) Β· 155 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $763.14 | 50 SMA $758.02 | 200 SMA $713.18 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $585.0
- QQQ: $716.51 | 50 SMA $711.17 | 200 SMA $658.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $649.0
- IWM: $290.75 | 50 SMA $296.74 | 200 SMA $273.27 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $240.0
- VIX: 16.33 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.837%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $763.14 | 43.46 | 15.4 | $585.00 | Bearish | 2.20 |
| QQQ | $716.51 | 50.20 | 16.0 | $649.00 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| IWM | $290.75 | 32.02 | 10.9 | $240.00 | Bearish | 4.81 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.33 | 52.48 | 22.7 | $10.00 | None | None |
| TNX | 48.37 | 70.44 | 20.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.84 | 43.07 | 37.0 | $402.17 | Neutral | 0.67 |
| DXY | 98.72 | 46.98 | 35.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.71 | 52.29 | 10.3 | $45.15 | Neutral | 0.58 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.479
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 37.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 55.4% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 42.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 26.5% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 16.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $96.29 (5d: +5.5%)
- Brent Crude: $101.32 | Spread: $5.03
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.71/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.31
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.09
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.861 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.329 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.401 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.457 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $512.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $763.14)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.84%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.72
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,884B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,855B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,986 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~319h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~55h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.29 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.97 (vs 20d avg 134.06, +2.2Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] SPY (763.14) reclaimed ZGL (585.00) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (96.02) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (26):
[1] Gold - Rejection of the key reference point and potential for downside [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-rejection-of-the-key-reference-point-and-potential-for-downside-video-202609100740 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:40:20 GMT
[2] European Central Bank: Higher energy lifts rate hike expectations - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-higher-energy-lifts-rate-hike-expectations-deutsche-bank-202609100740 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:40:20 GMT
[3] WTI falls below $93.50 on profit-taking, continued US-Iran tensions in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-falls-below-9350-on-profit-taking-continued-us-iran-tensions-in-focus-202609100733 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:33:35 GMT
[4] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD awaits acceptance above $68.00 before the next leg up URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-awaits-acceptance-above-6800-before-the-next-leg-up-202609100728 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:28:52 GMT
[5] Indonesian Rupiah faces challenges due to higher oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-faces-challenges-due-to-higher-oil-prices-202609100717 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:17:15 GMT
[6] JPY: Hikes, hikes, hikes - Watch these levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/jpy-hikes-hikes-hikes-watch-these-levels-202609100715 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:15:00 GMT
[7] Euro wavers around 0.8590 against British Pound with all eyes on the ECB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-wavers-around-08590-against-british-pound-with-all-eyes-on-the-ecb-202609100713 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:13:38 GMT
[8] Equities: Stagflation pattern weighs on stocks - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-stagflation-pattern-weighs-on-stocks-danske-bank-202609100711 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:11:31 GMT
[9] Austria Industrial Production (YoY) declined to -1.1% in July from previous 0% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-industrial-production-yoy-declined-to-11-in-july-from-previous-0-202609100707 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:07:09 GMT
[10] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Raydium, PUMP & Ripple - Asian Wrap 10 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-raydium-pump-ripple-asian-wrap-10-september-202609100706 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:06:45 GMT
[11] GBP/USD hits two-week high as markets reassess the Bank of England's stance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gbp-usd-hits-two-week-high-as-markets-reassess-the-bank-of-englands-stance-202609100706 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:06:07 GMT
[12] Turkey Industrial Production (YoY) up to -0.3% in July from previous -1.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-industrial-production-yoy-up-to-03-in-july-from-previous-14-202609100700 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:00:37 GMT
[13] Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY): 2.3% (July) vs 1.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-industrial-output-cal-adjusted-yoy-23-july-vs-11-202609100700 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:00:03 GMT
[14] British Pound: Neutral stance inside narrower band against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-neutral-stance-inside-narrower-band-against-us-dollar-uob-202609100658 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:58:06 GMT
[15] British Pound moves away from YTD low as Yen consolidates hawkish BoJ-inspired rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-moves-away-from-ytd-low-as-yen-consolidates-hawkish-boj-inspired-rally-202609100657 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:57:56 GMT
[16] Energy shock deepens as markets brace for a more hawkish ECB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/energy-shock-deepens-as-markets-brace-for-a-more-hawkish-ecb-202609100650 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:50:18 GMT
[17] Japanese Yen: Intervention risk supports against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-risk-supports-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202609100641 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:41:51 GMT
[18] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Wobbles around 1.3800 ahead of US PPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-wobbles-around-13800-ahead-of-us-ppi-data-202609100640 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:40:18 GMT
[19] Brent: Geopolitics keep rally supported - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-geopolitics-keep-rally-supported-ing-202609100629 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:29:32 GMT
[20] Euro holds recent gains despite high Oil prices with ECB decision in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-recent-gains-despite-high-oil-prices-with-ecb-decision-on-focus-202609100627 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:27:27 GMT
[21] British Pound strengthens above 1.3550, all eyes on US PPI inflation release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-strengthens-above-13550-all-eyes-on-us-ppi-inflation-release-202609100624 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:24:52 GMT
[22] AI trade ignores inflation risks, as ECB set to hike, investors ponder Apple's latest iPhone URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ai-trade-ignores-inflation-risks-as-ecb-set-to-hike-investors-ponder-apples-latest-iphone-202609100620 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:20:21 GMT
[23] Euro: Firms against US Dollar as ECB hike in focus - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-firms-against-us-dollar-as-ecb-hike-in-focus-danske-bank-202609100614 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:14:50 GMT
[24] Oil tops US$100, with ECB decision and US PPI data ahead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-tops-us100-with-ecb-decision-and-us-ppi-data-ahead-202609100607 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:07:10 GMT
[25] Raydium Price Forecast: Rally signals trend reversal amid network growth, buyback URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/raydium-price-forecast-rally-signals-trend-reversal-amid-network-growth-buyback-202609100607 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:07:04 GMT
[26] CEE labour productivity gains persist despite some exceptions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cee-labour-productivity-gains-persist-despite-some-exceptions-202609100603 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:03:53 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] US says southern Lebanon belongs neither to Hezbollah nor regional powers Time: 2026-09-10T07:28:51.231Z
[2] Pakistan says no plans to expand defensive alliance with Saudi Arabia, Turkey Time: 2026-09-10T07:16:58.543Z
[3] Iran lawmaker warns US of 'military surprises' Time: 2026-09-10T06:55:48.195Z
[4] Tehran IRGC commander says forces ready for rapid offensive operations Time: 2026-09-10T05:58:12.886Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 194 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 25.0% of normal
- Throughput: 25.0% of normal (2.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 287
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost