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2026-W37

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-10 02:02:00 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.479 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.30 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +5.1B strong suppression
Breadth πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 38% β€” narrow participation, rally is fragile
Energy βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Energy ELEVATED β€” watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +4.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.33 normal, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.46 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 16.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.74 dealer stress
Inflation βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Stagflation score 26 β€” moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d -1.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.67% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose

Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but gamma, correlations, and carry flash bullish β€” 4 of 6 signals refuse to confirm the decline.

Market Status

Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 65/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.479; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $763.14 | 50 SMA $757.60 | 200 SMA $712.68 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $763.57
  • QQQ: $716.51 | 50 SMA $711.32 | 200 SMA $658.32 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
  • IWM: $290.75 | 50 SMA $296.91 | 200 SMA $272.99 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $240.0
  • VIX: 16.46 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.837%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $763.14 48.48 15.7 $763.57 Bearish 2.20
QQQ $716.51 50.74 18.0 $595.00 Neutral 0.83
IWM $290.75 40.17 6.1 $240.00 Bearish 4.97

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 16.46 54.38 21.5 $10.50 Neutral 0.89
TNX 48.37 60.59 21.8 - - -
GLD $402.84 50.67 37.1 $402.17 Neutral 0.67
DXY 98.72 48.26 35.4 - - -
SLV $60.71 55.77 11.1 $45.15 Neutral 0.58

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.479
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.12B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 38.0%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.6%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 0/0
Health Care 59.3% 0/0
Technology 55.4% 0/0
Communication Services 52.6% 0/0
Financials 42.6% 0/0
Materials 33.3% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 27.1% 0/0
Consumer Staples 26.5% 0/0
Industrials 16.4% 0/0
Real Estate 15.4% 0/0
Utilities 13.3% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: ELEVATED
  • WTI Crude: $96.29 (5d: +5.8%)
  • Brent Crude: $101.13 | Spread: $4.84
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.0500/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.7400/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.47/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $65.31
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.09

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.861 normal
SPY / DXY -0.329 normal
SPY / TNX -0.401 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.457 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,924,897.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,801,177.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $512.8B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $763.14)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.84%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.72
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,883B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,854B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,490 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.29 β€” energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.97 (vs 20d avg 134.06, +2.2Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (96.02) for 5 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B
  • [INFO] Screener: SN β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 80/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: NXST β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime structural_derate, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 55% (n=185)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: PAYX β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 82/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 55% (n=185)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: BX β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 74/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.55%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY): -0.5% (July) vs previous 29.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-new-orders-manufacturing-yoy-05-july-vs-previous-299-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:17 GMT

[2] Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) climbed from previous -1.5% to 0.2% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-industrial-production-value-yoy-climbed-from-previous-15-to-02-in-july-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:15 GMT

[3] Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) declined to -3.6% in July from previous -0.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-industrial-production-value-mom-declined-to-36-in-july-from-previous-04-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:15 GMT

[4] Denmark Inflation (HICP) (YoY) up to 2% in August from previous 1.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/denmark-inflation-hicp-yoy-up-to-2-in-august-from-previous-16-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:14 GMT

[5] Norway Core Inflation (MoM) down to -0.5% in August from previous 0.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-core-inflation-mom-down-to-05-in-august-from-previous-08-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:14 GMT

[6] Norway Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3.2%) in August: Actual (3.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-consumer-price-index-yoy-above-forecasts-32-in-august-actual-33-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:12 GMT

[7] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.9%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-29-in-august-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:12 GMT

[8] Norway Core Inflation (YoY) meets forecasts (3%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-core-inflation-yoy-meets-forecasts-3-in-august-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:12 GMT

[9] Norway Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.3%, above expectations (-0.4%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-consumer-price-index-mom-came-in-at-03-above-expectations-04-in-august-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:10 GMT

[10] Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-mom-meets-forecasts-02-in-august-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:10 GMT

[11] Denmark Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2% (August) vs 1.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/denmark-consumer-price-index-yoy-2-august-vs-17-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:09 GMT

[12] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (0.2%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-meets-expectations-02-in-august-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:09 GMT

[13] Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.9%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-yoy-meets-forecasts-29-in-august-202609100600 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 06:00:08 GMT

[14] Oil tops USD 100/bbl as ECB prepares to hike, not guide URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-tops-usd-100-bbl-as-ecb-prepares-to-hike-not-guide-202609100559 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 05:59:57 GMT

[15] Pump.fun launches custom pairs for tokenized stocks and real-world assets on Solana URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pumpfun-launches-custom-pairs-for-tokenized-stocks-and-real-world-assets-on-solana-202609100558 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 05:58:59 GMT

[16] Trump comments on 'citizen's dividend', affirms Xi's expected US visit URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/trump-comments-on-citizens-dividend-affirms-xis-expected-us-visit-202609100555 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 05:55:02 GMT

[17] Japanese Yen remains firm against US Dollar amid hawkish BoJ bets, US PPI data eyed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-remains-firm-against-us-dollar-amid-hawkish-boj-bets-us-ppi-data-eyed-202609100554 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 05:54:15 GMT

[18] BoJ's Masu: Underlying inflation gradually approaching 2% but don't see it overshooting URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-masu-underlying-inflation-gradually-approaching-2-but-dont-see-it-overshooting-202609100550 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 05:50:13 GMT

[19] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Softens below 111.00, bearish vibe prevails below 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-softens-below-11100-bearish-vibe-prevails-below-100-day-sma-202609100525 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 05:25:28 GMT

[20] Indian Rupee extends its downward streak as oil prices keep rising URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-extends-its-downward-streak-as-oil-prices-keep-rising-202609100524 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 05:24:41 GMT

[21] Elliott Wave outlook: DAX in larger degree correction [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/elliott-wave-outlook-dax-in-larger-degree-correction-202609100510 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 05:10:38 GMT

[22] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Stays near 178.50 amid ongoing bearish bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-stays-near-17850-amid-ongoing-bearish-bias-202609100510 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 05:10:36 GMT

[23] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609100505 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 05:05:24 GMT

[24] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609100500 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 05:00:35 GMT

[25] Indonesia Consumer Confidence rose from previous 116.8 to 118.5 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-consumer-confidence-rose-from-previous-1168-to-1185-in-august-202609100456 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 04:56:12 GMT

[26] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609100456 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 04:56:04 GMT

[27] Morning briefing: Euro could continue to rise towards 1.1700 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-euro-could-continue-to-rise-towards-11700-202609100451 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 04:51:33 GMT

[28] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609100444 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 04:44:56 GMT

[29] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Sits near May 14 high, above 0.7200 as US inflation data looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-sits-near-may-14-high-above-07200-as-us-inflation-data-looms-202609100438 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 04:38:45 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Emergency warning lifted in Saudi Arabia's Khamis Mushait Time: 2026-09-10T04:36:59.566Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 194 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β€” 10.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 400
  • Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost