Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-09 08:02:32 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (1 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.485 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 43% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.80 normal, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.64 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.68% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, correlations, and credit are turning bullish β if dark pool confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 43% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.485; GEX positive at 6.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $765.41 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.59
- QQQ: $717.43 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $294.49 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.72 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.806%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $765.41 | 47.52 | 18.0 | $770.59 | Bearish | 2.25 |
| QQQ | $717.43 | 42.07 | 22.3 | $595.00 | Neutral | 1.17 |
| IWM | $294.49 | 36.92 | 10.4 | $250.00 | Bearish | 1.97 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.72 | 46.66 | 20.2 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.10 |
| TNX | 48.06 | 56.41 | 21.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.84 | 50.73 | 37.6 | $402.51 | Bearish | 2.19 |
| DXY | 98.78 | 38.50 | 38.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.31 | 50.68 | 12.8 | $46.00 | Neutral | 0.71 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.485
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.96B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 43.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 62.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 52.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 37.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 29.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $94.61 (5d: +4.9%)
- Brent Crude: $99.59 | Spread: $4.98
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.57/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.46
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.804 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.295 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.461 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.503 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.14
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,267,688.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,931,653.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $551.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $765.41)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.81%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.78
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.40% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,878B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,197B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,844B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,361 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] DIX at 0.485 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.503 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.4% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $146.03 (vs 20d avg 132.95, +2.1Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.53%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (27):
[1] Mexico Headline Inflation below expectations (0.25%) in August: Actual (0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-headline-inflation-below-expectations-025-in-august-actual-02-202609091200 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:00:03 GMT
[2] Mexico Core Inflation registered at 0.16%, below expectations (0.2%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-core-inflation-registered-at-016-below-expectations-02-in-august-202609091200 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:00:03 GMT
[3] Mexico 12-Month Inflation came in at 3.26% below forecasts (3.3%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-12-month-inflation-came-in-at-326-below-forecasts-33-in-august-202609091200 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:00:02 GMT
[4] Ripple Price Forecast: XRP bulls tighten grip, raising $1.50 breakout odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-bulls-tighten-grip-raising-150-breakout-odds-202609091200 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT
[5] Polish Zloty: Hawkish pricing seen at risk of correction against Euro - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-hawkish-pricing-seen-at-risk-of-correction-against-euro-ing-202609091156 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:56:24 GMT
[6] New Zealand Dollar extends losses below 0.5850 as Oil prices approach the $100 level URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-extends-losses-below-05850-as-oil-prices-approach-the-100-level-202609091155 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:55:49 GMT
[7] Brent: Supply stress drives cautious flows - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-supply-stress-drives-cautious-flows-bny-202609091147 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:47:42 GMT
[8] British Pound remains under pressure against Japanese Yen amid hawkish BoJ bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-remains-under-pressure-against-japanese-yen-amid-hawkish-boj-bets-202609091146 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:46:16 GMT
[9] Bitcoin SOPR metric sees longest profit run of 2026 as new analysis challenges bear market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-sopr-metric-sees-longest-profit-run-of-2026-as-new-analysis-challenges-bear-market-202609091139 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:39:18 GMT
[10] Japanese Yen gains against US Dollar as markets brace for a more aggressive BoJ URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-gains-against-us-dollar-as-markets-brace-for-a-more-aggressive-boj-202609091139 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:39:00 GMT
[11] Gold buyers struggle near $4,400 amid Fed rate hike bets, rising Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-buyers-struggle-near-4-400-amid-fed-rate-hike-bets-rising-oil-prices-202609091136 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:36:38 GMT
[12] Bitcoin: The golden cross signals an uptrend, but not right away URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-the-golden-cross-signals-an-uptrend-but-not-right-away-202609091134 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:34:18 GMT
[13] Swedish Krona: Riksbank seen keeping hike option - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swedish-krona-riksbank-seen-keeping-hike-option-commerzbank-202609091133 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:33:29 GMT
[14] Norges Bank: One more hike then gradual cuts - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norges-bank-one-more-hike-then-gradual-cuts-nomura-202609091114 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:14:09 GMT
[15] Dollar debasement talk, Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding offset USD safe-haven status URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dollar-debasement-talk-japanese-yen-carry-trade-unwinding-offset-usd-safe-haven-status-202609091107 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:07:53 GMT
[16] Labor day doesn't propel markets either URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/labor-day-doesnt-propel-markets-either-202609091101 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:01:18 GMT
[17] United States MBA Mortgage Applications declined to -2.7% in September 4 from previous 0.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-declined-to-27-in-september-4-from-previous-08-202609091100 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:00:01 GMT
[18] Moneta Markets Launches 24/7 Gold Trading on MT5 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/moneta-markets-launches-24-7-gold-trading-on-mt5-202609091059 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:59:43 GMT
[19] Financial markets remain 'genuinely divided' over next week's Fed decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/financial-markets-remain-genuinely-divided-over-next-weeks-fed-decision-202609091055 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:55:57 GMT
[20] The Dollar is in trouble URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-dollar-is-in-trouble-202609091052 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:52:22 GMT
[21] EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1686-1.1710 zone remains key hurdle URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-11686-11710-zone-remains-key-hurdle-202609091049 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:49:32 GMT
[22] Five market relationships traders rely on - Which ones still work? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/five-market-relationships-traders-rely-on-which-ones-still-work-202609091047 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:47:05 GMT
[23] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC recovery slows as cautious mood grows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-recovery-slows-as-cautious-mood-grows-202609091026 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:26:12 GMT
[24] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP regain strength as US Treasury doubles down on buybacks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-regain-strength-as-us-treasury-doubles-down-on-buybacks-202609091019 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:19:26 GMT
[25] Gold Spot/US Dollar faces rejection at 0.618 Arc - Potential decline toward 4,366 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-spot-us-dollar-faces-rejection-at-0618-arc-potential-decline-toward-4-366-202609091016 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:16:32 GMT
[26] Bulls push Oil prices higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bulls-push-oil-prices-higher-202609091008 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:08:44 GMT
[27] Iran's retaliation for the tanker strikes crosses into Jordan, crude back at July highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/irans-retaliation-for-the-tanker-strikes-crosses-into-jordan-crude-back-at-july-highs-202609091002 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:02:08 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[1] Sunni Kurdish cleric killed in northwest Iran, Revolutionary Guards say Time: 2026-09-09T10:54:08.358Z
[2] IRGC says vessels entering designated Strait of Hormuz zone will face sanctions Time: 2026-09-09T10:51:39.507Z
[BREAKING] [3] Drone strikes tanker carrying Iraqi fuel oil - Reuters Time: 2026-09-09T10:47:52.321Z
[4] Secret documents expose new network selling sanctioned Iranian oil Time: 2026-09-09T10:39:44.693Z
[5] Iran condemns US attacks on several oil tankers Time: 2026-09-09T10:37:59.155Z
[6] Blast heard west of Tehran caused by controlled munitions disposal - State media Time: 2026-09-09T10:21:43.786Z
[BREAKING] [7] All IRGC attempted attacks failed, CENTCOM says Time: 2026-09-09T10:03:29.185Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 193 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 6.0% of normal (0.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS1450 (+2800% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $18.5 billion/day economic cost