Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-09 06:01:53 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (1 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.485 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 43% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.80 normal, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.64 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.68% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, correlations, and credit are turning bullish β if dark pool confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 43% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.485; GEX positive at 6.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $765.41 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.59
- QQQ: $717.43 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $294.49 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.72 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.806%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $765.41 | 47.52 | 18.0 | $770.59 | Bearish | 2.25 |
| QQQ | $717.43 | 42.07 | 22.3 | $595.00 | Neutral | 1.17 |
| IWM | $294.49 | 36.92 | 10.4 | $250.00 | Bearish | 1.97 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.72 | 46.66 | 20.2 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.10 |
| TNX | 48.06 | 56.41 | 21.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.84 | 50.73 | 37.6 | $402.51 | Bearish | 2.19 |
| DXY | 98.78 | 38.50 | 38.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.31 | 50.68 | 12.8 | $46.00 | Neutral | 0.71 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.485
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.96B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 43.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 62.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 52.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 37.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 29.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $94.61 (5d: +4.9%)
- Brent Crude: $99.59 | Spread: $4.98
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.57/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.46
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.804 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.295 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.461 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.503 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.14
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,267,688.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,931,653.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $551.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $765.41)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.81%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.78
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.40% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,878B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,197B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,844B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,995 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] DIX at 0.485 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.503 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.4% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $146.03 (vs 20d avg 132.95, +2.1Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.53%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (25):
[1] Portugal Global Trade Balance declined to β¬-9.51B in July from previous β¬-9.441B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-global-trade-balance-declined-to-eur-951b-in-july-from-previous-eur-9441b-202609091000 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:00:37 GMT
[2] Japanese Yen: Supported by policy shift expectations - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-supported-by-policy-shift-expectations-mufg-202609090959 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:59:05 GMT
[3] Australian Dollar slips against Japanese Yen as BoJ rate hike bets grow URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-slips-against-japanese-yen-as-boj-rate-hike-bets-grow-202609090946 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:46:22 GMT
[4] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bounces up to $4,400 with the bearish trend intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-bounces-up-to-4-400-with-the-bearish-trend-intact-202609090944 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:44:50 GMT
[5] Polish Zloty: Policy on hold keeps PLN supported against Euro - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-policy-on-hold-keeps-pln-supported-against-euro-societe-generale-202609090941 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:41:45 GMT
[6] Zcash breaks above 2018 highs, eyes 1600-2500 [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/zcash-breaks-above-2018-highs-eyes-1600-2500-video-202609090933 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:33:44 GMT
[7] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609090931 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:31:04 GMT
[8] Markets 'too aggressive' on further ECB hikes as lagarde keeps options open URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-too-aggressive-on-further-ecb-hikes-as-lagarde-keeps-options-open-202609090929 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:29:13 GMT
[9] Sterling finds 'support' as Bailey's hawkish warning lifts pound ahead of MPC decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/sterling-finds-support-as-baileys-hawkish-warning-lifts-pound-ahead-of-mpc-decision-202609090927 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:27:47 GMT
[10] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Remains below 1.3800 as bearish bias prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-remains-below-13800-as-bearish-bias-prevails-202609090925 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:25:43 GMT
[11] Copper: Record highs driven by tariff uncertainty - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-record-highs-driven-by-tariff-uncertainty-ing-202609090923 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:23:16 GMT
[12] Riksbank: Limited hiking cycle versus ECB - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/riksbank-limited-hiking-cycle-versus-ecb-nomura-202609090902 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:02:25 GMT
[13] Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 3.8% in August from previous 3.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-consumer-price-index-yoy-increased-to-38-in-august-from-previous-34-202609090859 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:59:28 GMT
[14] Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY) increased to 3.7% in August from previous 2.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-consumer-price-index-harmonized-yoy-increased-to-37-in-august-from-previous-27-202609090859 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:59:27 GMT
[15] USD/JPY falls to seven-month low: What's going on? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-falls-to-seven-month-low-whats-going-on-202609090858 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:58:56 GMT
[16] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Flat lines near 0.8100 as bulls await US inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-flat-lines-near-08100-as-bulls-await-us-inflation-data-202609090857 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:57:49 GMT
[17] Euro advances against Canadian Dollar due to hawkish ECB sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-advances-against-canadian-dollar-due-to-hawkish-ecb-sentiment-202609090857 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:57:04 GMT
[18] The Euro is banking on the ECB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-euro-is-banking-on-the-ecb-202609090849 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:49:08 GMT
[19] US Dollar: CPI outcome guides Fed path - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-cpi-outcome-guides-fed-path-dbs-202609090848 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:48:12 GMT
[20] Australian Dollar hits fresh four-month highs amid USD weakness, strong Chinese inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-hits-fresh-four-month-highs-amid-usd-weakness-strong-chinese-inflation-202609090845 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:45:58 GMT
[21] Euro continues to underperform against Japanese Yen, ECB policy awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-continues-to-underperform-against-japanese-yen-ecb-policy-awaited-202609090843 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:43:41 GMT
[22] Dow Jones futures move little as market caution prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-move-little-as-market-caution-prevails-202609090840 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:40:01 GMT
[23] Euro: Mid-range trading with capped upside against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-mid-range-trading-with-capped-upside-against-us-dollar-ing-202609090832 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:32:26 GMT
[24] FX daily: Dollar price action quite poor URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fx-daily-dollar-price-action-quite-poor-202609090826 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:26:16 GMT
[25] Japanese Yen: Changing fundamentals challenge carry - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-changing-fundamentals-challenge-carry-rabobank-202609090819 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:19:13 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[BREAKING] [1] Tanker lists after suspected projectile attack off UAE, UKMTO says Time: 2026-09-09T09:10:53.939Z
[BREAKING] [2] Several merchant vessels hit by disabling fire in Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman - UKMTO Time: 2026-09-09T08:51:33.912Z
[3] Australian intelligence committee chair condemns IRGC threats against journalists Time: 2026-09-09T08:31:23.043Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 193 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 290
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost