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2026-W37

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-09 04:01:47 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (1 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.485 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +6.0B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 43% β€” mixed participation
Energy βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Energy ELEVATED β€” watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +2.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.80 normal, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.64 dealer stress
Inflation βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Stagflation score 26 β€” moderate, watching
carry_risk βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” USD/JPY 5d -3.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 76 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.68% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose

Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, correlations, and credit are turning bullish β€” if dark pool confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.

Market Status

Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β€” breadth at 43% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.485; GEX positive at 6.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $765.41 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.59
  • QQQ: $717.43 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
  • IWM: $294.49 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
  • VIX: 15.72 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.806%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $765.41 47.52 18.0 $770.59 Bearish 2.25
QQQ $717.43 42.07 22.3 $595.00 Neutral 1.17
IWM $294.49 36.92 10.4 $250.00 Bearish 1.97

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.72 46.66 20.2 $10.50 Neutral 1.10
TNX 48.06 56.41 21.9 - - -
GLD $398.84 50.73 37.6 $402.51 Bearish 2.19
DXY 98.78 38.50 38.1 - - -
SLV $59.31 50.68 12.8 $46.00 Neutral 0.71

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.485
  • DIX Signal: Strong buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.96B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 43.1%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 62.3%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Communication Services 68.4% 0/0
Health Care 59.3% 0/0
Technology 58.5% 0/0
Financials 52.9% 0/0
Materials 37.5% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 33.9% 0/0
Consumer Staples 29.4% 0/0
Real Estate 23.1% 0/0
Industrials 19.4% 0/0
Utilities 13.3% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: ELEVATED
  • WTI Crude: $94.61 (5d: +4.9%)
  • Brent Crude: $99.59 | Spread: $4.98
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.6700/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.57/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.46

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.804 normal
SPY / DXY -0.295 normal
SPY / TNX -0.461 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.503 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.14
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,267,688.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,931,653.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $551.4B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $765.41)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.81%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.78
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.40% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,878B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,197B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,844B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,272 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [INFO] DIX at 0.485 β€” strong dark pool buying activity.
  • [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.503 with energy in ELEVATED β€” crude shock propagating into equities.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.4% β€” yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $146.03 (vs 20d avg 132.95, +2.1Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.53%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Federal Reserve: Market mispricing risk into blackout - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-market-mispricing-risk-into-blackout-td-securities-202609090800 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:00:19 GMT

[2] Forex Today: US Dollar retreats as markets gear up for key events URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-retreats-as-markets-gear-up-for-key-events-202609090758 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:58:03 GMT

[3] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rises in limited range with US CPI in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-rises-in-limited-range-with-us-cpi-in-focus-202609090757 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:57:16 GMT

[4] European Central Bank: Further hikes risk skewed to upside - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-further-hikes-risk-skewed-to-upside-nomura-202609090749 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:49:52 GMT

[5] Euro remains steady against British Pound Gains due to ECB rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-steady-against-british-pound-gains-due-to-ecb-rate-hike-bets-202609090749 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:49:12 GMT

[6] WTI Oil erases losses and returns above $92.00 as hostilities in the Gulf escalate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-erases-losses-and-returns-above-9200-as-hostilities-in-the-gulf-escalate-202609090748 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:48:09 GMT

[7] Pound-Yen faces fresh pressure as Japan prepares for higher rates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/pound-yen-faces-fresh-pressure-as-japan-prepares-for-higher-rates-202609090746 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:46:18 GMT

[8] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD approaches $67.00 as bulls await trading range breakout URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-approaches-6700-as-bulls-await-trading-range-breakout-202609090744 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:44:59 GMT

[9] Yen comeback puts fresh pressure on the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yen-comeback-puts-fresh-pressure-on-the-us-dollar-202609090741 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:41:40 GMT

[10] Polish Zloty: Rate cuts seen off table through year-end - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-rate-cuts-seen-off-table-through-year-end-commerzbank-202609090736 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:36:52 GMT

[11] Oil surges toward $100 as inflation risks reshape global markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-surges-toward-100-as-inflation-risks-reshape-global-markets-202609090732 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:32:22 GMT

[12] Forex Expo Dubai to Take Place as Scheduled on 22-23 September 2026 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/forex-expo-dubai-to-take-place-as-scheduled-on-22-23-september-2026-202609090726 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:26:46 GMT

[13] Equities: Broad US pullback as tech limits losses - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-broad-us-pullback-as-tech-limits-losses-deutsche-bank-202609090717 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:17:53 GMT

[14] Experts agree: Faster BoJ tightening prospects fuel Japanese Yen's remarkable surge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/experts-agree-faster-boj-tightening-prospects-fuel-japanese-yens-remarkable-surge-202609090715 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:15:01 GMT

[15] Indonesian Rupiah strengthens amid rising consumer confidence, weaker US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-strengthens-amid-rising-consumer-confidence-weaker-us-dollar-202609090713 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:13:17 GMT

[16] Euro nudges up above 1.1640 amid broad-based US Dollar weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-nudges-up-above-11640-amid-broad-based-us-dollar-weakness-202609090707 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:07:00 GMT

[17] Canadian Dollar gains ground as Middle East tensions boost oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gains-ground-as-middle-east-tensions-boost-oil-prices-202609090705 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:05:16 GMT

[18] United States Dollar Index (DXY) bears eye August low around 98.50 ahead of US inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-dxy-bears-eye-august-low-around-9850-ahead-of-us-inflation-202609090703 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:03:50 GMT

[19] Slovakia Industrial Output (YoY) above expectations (1%) in July: Actual (2.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/slovakia-industrial-output-yoy-above-expectations-1-in-july-actual-24-202609090701 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:01:28 GMT

[20] Oil: Risk premium builds with Persian Gulf tensions - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-risk-premium-builds-with-persian-gulf-tensions-ing-202609090700 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:00:16 GMT

[21] Blockchain Life Returns to Dubai on December 1-2, 2026 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/blockchain-life-returns-to-dubai-on-december-1-2-2026-202609090700 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:00:00 GMT

[22] Japanese Yen: Focus on strength and BoJ path - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-focus-on-strength-and-boj-path-mufg-202609090651 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 06:51:53 GMT

[23] France Industrial Output (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (0.3%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-industrial-output-mom-registered-at-04-below-expectations-03-in-july-202609090645 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 06:45:02 GMT

[24] Oil, Apple and JPY in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-apple-and-jpy-in-focus-202609090627 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 06:27:03 GMT

[25] British Pound dips to 207.50 as Japanese Yen rallies, unfazed by Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-dips-to-20750-as-japanese-yen-rallies-unfazed-by-oil-prices-202609090625 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 06:25:25 GMT

[26] Euro: Volatility eyed into late week - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-volatility-eyed-into-late-week-commerzbank-202609090621 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 06:21:49 GMT

[27] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Pi Network, Bitcoin & Ethereum - Asian Wrap 09 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-pi-network-bitcoin-ethereum-asian-wrap-09-september-202609090617 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 06:17:14 GMT

[28] Oil holds near US$100 and the Yen catches another bid URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-holds-near-us100-and-the-yen-catches-another-bid-202609090614 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 06:14:48 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Iran's weakened axis still bites as Houthis escalate against Saudi Arabia Time: 2026-09-09T07:31:36.190Z

[2] Brent crude nears $100 as Houthi attacks threaten regional supplies Time: 2026-09-09T07:30:16.673Z

[3] Iran to open registration for first foreign-currency investment fund Time: 2026-09-09T07:05:55.756Z

[4] Emergency threat ends in Saudi Arabia's Khamis Mushait Time: 2026-09-09T06:27:53.445Z

[5] Yemeni government forces shell Houthi positions west of Taiz - Al Arabiya Time: 2026-09-09T06:12:02.472Z

[6] Iraq seeks higher OPEC+ quota based on 6 million bpd capacity - Bloomberg Time: 2026-09-09T05:58:17.955Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 193 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β€” 1.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 4.4% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 41
  • Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 40.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost