Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-09 08:32:54 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (1 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.485 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 43% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.80 normal, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.37 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.68% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, correlations, and credit are turning bullish β if dark pool confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 43% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.485; GEX positive at 6.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, PFE
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=171) | 3d 37% (n=171) | 5d 33% (n=171)
- Screener Board Record: 349 closed (hit rate 47%) Β· 157 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.75 | 50 SMA $757.60 | 200 SMA $712.68 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $767.29
- QQQ: $713.84 | 50 SMA $711.32 | 200 SMA $658.32 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $292.71 | 50 SMA $296.91 | 200 SMA $272.99 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $240.0
- VIX: 16.51 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.816%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.75 | 48.48 | 15.7 | $767.29 | Neutral | 1.40 |
| QQQ | $713.84 | 50.74 | 18.0 | $595.00 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| IWM | $292.71 | 40.17 | 6.1 | $240.00 | Bearish | 1.84 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.51 | 54.38 | 21.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.09 |
| TNX | 48.16 | 60.59 | 21.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.82 | 50.67 | 37.1 | $402.17 | Neutral | 1.14 |
| DXY | 98.62 | 46.68 | 36.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.69 | 55.77 | 11.1 | $44.88 | Neutral | 0.75 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.485
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.96B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 43.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 62.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 52.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 37.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 29.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $95.59 (5d: +5.0%)
- Brent Crude: $100.70 | Spread: $5.11
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0800/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.73/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.46
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.804 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.295 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.461 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.503 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.14
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $551.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $762.75)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.82%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.62
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.40% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,878B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,197B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,844B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,419 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $95.59 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.485 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.503 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.4% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $146.03 (vs 20d avg 132.95, +2.1Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.53%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] US ADP Employment Change 4-week average increases to 12K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-increases-to-12k-202609091223 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:23:20 GMT
[2] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Ripple, Bitcoin & Crypto - European Wrap 9 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-ripple-bitcoin-crypto-european-wrap-9-september-202609091220 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:20:16 GMT
[3] Swiss National Bank: Policy rate seen on prolonged hold - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-national-bank-policy-rate-seen-on-prolonged-hold-nomura-202609091219 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:19:22 GMT
[4] Bitcoin climbs as Oil tops $100, equities drop after Iran strikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-climbs-as-oil-tops-100-equities-drop-after-iran-strikes-202609091216 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:16:40 GMT
[5] United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 12K (August 15) vs 11.75K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-12k-august-15-vs-1175k-202609091216 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:16:02 GMT
[6] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD strengthens above 1.3550 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-strengthens-above-13550-202609091209 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:09:46 GMT
[7] Japanese Yen: Peak view holds as policy shifts loom - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-peak-view-holds-as-policy-shifts-loom-dbs-202609091209 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:09:16 GMT
[8] Oil hits $95, Diesel $6 as 10-year yields push further into the danger zone ahead of $39B auction URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-hits-95-diesel-6-as-10-year-yields-push-further-into-the-danger-zone-ahead-of-39b-auction-202609091203 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:03:07 GMT
[9] EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Upside remains capped near 0.8600 as ECB decision looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-forecast-upside-remains-capped-near-08600-as-ecb-decision-looms-202609091201 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:01:23 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[BREAKING] [1] One killed, one missing after tanker incident off Dubai, charterer says Time: 2026-09-09T12:21:04.491Z
[2] Iran-linked LPG tanker seen towed from Gulf of Oman strike area Time: 2026-09-09T11:44:09.188Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 193 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 6.0% of normal (0.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS1450 (+2800% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $18.5 billion/day economic cost