Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-07 08:01:58 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.476 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 48% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.1% stable Β· real yield 2.45% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.43 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but dark pool, gamma, and correlations are turning bullish β if structural signals confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 48% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.476 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 48% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.79 | 50 SMA $756.14 | 200 SMA $711.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.08
- QQQ: $718.03 | 50 SMA $711.03 | 200 SMA $657.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.67
- IWM: $295.59 | 50 SMA $297.07 | 200 SMA $272.36 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.86
- VIX: 14.53 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.784%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.79 | 46.87 | 17.4 | $770.08 | Neutral | 1.43 |
| QQQ | $718.03 | 40.25 | 22.7 | $718.67 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| IWM | $295.59 | 34.02 | 10.7 | $295.86 | Bearish | 1.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.53 | 50.33 | 21.1 | $11.04 | Neutral | 1.39 |
| TNX | 47.84 | 56.96 | 26.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $406.55 | 54.98 | 37.1 | $407.69 | Bearish | 1.77 |
| DXY | 99.16 | 42.93 | 37.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.77 | 55.52 | 12.6 | $43.00 | Neutral | 0.76 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 18/19 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 41/54 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 14/19 |
| Financials | 64.7% | 44/68 |
| Technology | 54.7% | 35/64 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 11/24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 23/59 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 11/34 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 13/67 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 4/26 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 3/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $91.22 (5d: +6.4%)
- Brent Crude: $95.83 | Spread: $4.61
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.5500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.08/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.56
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.777 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.355 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.429 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.484 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,403,617.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,779,868.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $553.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $780 (Spot: $769.79)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.16
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,872B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,131B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,772B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,422 β² (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.96 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] Screener: NDSN β promotion-ready (24d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2816)).
- [INFO] Screener: TMUS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 48% (n=10182)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β promotion-ready (29d on list, HIGH conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)).
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: CF β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 76/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.51%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (19):
[1] Brent: Uptrend targets $102 before higher projections - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-uptrend-targets-102-before-higher-projections-societe-generale-202609071153 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 11:53:43 GMT
[2] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Bitcoin, PI & Crypto - European Wrap 7 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-pi-crypto-european-wrap-7-september-202609071147 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 11:47:09 GMT
[3] Technical outlook: Gold, EUR/USD, Oil [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/technical-outlook-gold-eur-usd-oil-video-202609071122 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 11:22:06 GMT
[4] Excessive pricing for ECB terminal rate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/excessive-pricing-for-ecb-terminal-rate-202609071117 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 11:17:51 GMT
[5] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP edges higher against US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-edges-higher-against-us-dollar-202609071117 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 11:17:06 GMT
[6] Gold bears retain control as Fed hike bets and Oil-driven inflation weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-bears-retain-control-as-fed-hike-bets-and-oil-driven-inflation-weigh-202609071113 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 11:13:47 GMT
[7] US Dollar: CPI holds key after jobs-driven support - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-cpi-holds-key-after-jobs-driven-support-ocbc-202609071112 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 11:12:29 GMT
[8] Saudi Oil facilities hit in fresh strikes, WTI surges above $90 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-oil-facilities-hit-in-fresh-strikes-wti-surges-above-90-202609071109 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 11:09:53 GMT
[9] Gold price declines as strong US jobs data boosts Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-declines-as-strong-us-jobs-data-boosts-fed-rate-hike-bets-202609071109 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 11:09:29 GMT
[10] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains sticky to 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-remains-sticky-to-20-day-ema-202609071109 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 11:09:21 GMT
[11] Healthy US labour market gives 'further ammunition' to Fed hawks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/healthy-us-labour-market-gives-further-ammunition-to-fed-hawks-202609071107 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 11:07:38 GMT
[12] Silver slips below $66 as strong NFP report revives Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-slips-below-66-as-strong-nfp-report-revives-fed-rate-hike-bets-202609071056 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:56:38 GMT
[13] EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Testing support at previous highs in the 0.8585 area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-forecast-testing-support-at-previous-highs-at-the-08585-area-202609071049 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:49:57 GMT
[14] Bitcoin Price Forecast: Strong ETF demand supports BTC as elevated Fed hike bets cap upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-strong-etf-demand-supports-btc-as-elevated-fed-hike-bets-cap-upside-202609071035 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:35:45 GMT
[15] BoE dovishness hurting Pound amid sovereign bond sell off URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/boe-dovishness-hurting-pound-amid-sovereign-bond-sell-off-202609071034 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:34:26 GMT
[16] Oil up, Bitcoin down as US strikes Iranian Crude carriers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/oil-up-bitcoin-down-as-us-strikes-iranian-crude-carriers-202609071018 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:18:45 GMT
[17] Pi Network Price Forecast: PI struggles despite Core Team expanding developer capabilities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-pi-struggles-despite-core-team-expanding-developer-capabilities-202609071016 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:16:38 GMT
[18] 154.06: Japanese Yen hits fresh six-month highs amid hopes of steeper BoJ hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/15406-japanese-yen-hits-fresh-six-month-highs-amid-hopes-of-steeper-boj-hikes-202609071005 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:05:50 GMT
[19] Chancellor keeps Budget under wraps, as he promotes growth, growth, growth URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/chancellor-keeps-budget-under-wraps-as-he-promotes-growth-growth-growth-202609071005 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:05:16 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[1] Israeli military strikes Iran-backed Hezbollah sites after drone launches in south Lebanon Time: 2026-09-07T11:31:08.403Z
[2] Iran can immobilize enemy forces anywhere, navy chief says Time: 2026-09-07T11:15:14.510Z
[BREAKING] [3] Saudi Aramco's Jizan oil facilities attacked - FT Time: 2026-09-07T11:08:18.715Z
[4] IAEA says it has had no access to key Iranian nuclear facilities for over a year Time: 2026-09-07T10:48:12.254Z
[5] Video: Fuel crisis has 'no quick fix', Iranian gas official warns Time: 2026-09-07T10:43:38.736Z
[6] Oman evacuates 16 crew members from Saudi tanker attacked by Iran Time: 2026-09-07T10:40:37.556Z
[7] Iran expanded war across region beyond enemy expectations, commander says Time: 2026-09-07T10:17:28.422Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 191 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily β 6.7% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 333
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost