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2026-W37

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-07 12:18:57 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.476 above 0.45 and rising β€” institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +8.4B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 48% β€” mixed participation
Energy βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Energy ELEVATED β€” watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold -0.0% neutral Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.43 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.52 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 24 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” USD/JPY 5d -3.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 73 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose

Divergence read: Cautious regime but dark pool, gamma, and correlations are turning bullish β€” if structural signals confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.

Market Status

Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β€” breadth at 48% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.476 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 48% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Regime: low β€” Calm regime β€” balanced board
  • Longs: DLR, ARWR, PFE
  • Shorts: VTRS, RJF

Track Record

  • AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=179) | 3d 36% (n=179) | 5d 33% (n=179)
  • Screener Board Record: 337 closed (hit rate 47%) Β· 159 open

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $769.55 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.57
  • QQQ: $717.54 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
  • IWM: $295.01 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
  • VIX: 15.30 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.784%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $769.55 β–Ό 47.52 β–² 18.0 β–² $772.57 None None
QQQ $717.54 β–Ό 42.07 β–² 22.3 β–Ό $595.00 None None
IWM $295.01 β–Ό 36.92 β–² 10.4 β–Ό $250.00 None None

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.30 β–² 46.66 β–Ό 20.2 β–Ό $10.50 None None
TNX 47.84 56.41 β–Ό 21.9 β–Ό - - -
GLD $406.53 β–Ό 50.73 β–Ό 37.6 β–² $350.00 None None
DXY 98.91 β–Ό 39.89 β–Ό 36.1 β–Ό - - -
SLV $59.87 β–² 50.68 β–Ό 12.8 β–² $44.76 None None

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.4B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 1.00%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 48.2% β–²
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.7%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.8% β–Ό

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 18/19
Health Care 75.9% 41/54
Communication Services 73.7% 14/19
Financials 66.2% 45/68
Technology 56.9% 37/65
Materials 50.0% 12/24
Consumer Discretionary 39.0% 23/59
Consumer Staples 32.4% 11/34
Industrials 19.4% 13/67
Real Estate 15.4% 4/26
Utilities 10.0% 3/30

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: ELEVATED
  • WTI Crude: $91.48 β–² (5d: +1.4% β–Ό)
  • Brent Crude: $96.28 β–² | Spread: $4.80 β–²
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.2100/gal β–²
  • Heating Oil: $4.5400/gal β–Ό
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.96/bbl β–Ό (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $64.06
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.56

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.777 normal
SPY / DXY -0.355 normal
SPY / TNX -0.429 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.484 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.10
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 β–² (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0 β–Ό
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0 β–Ό
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (No 0DTE Expiry Today β—†)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $553.3B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $780 (Spot: $769.55)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.78%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.91 β–Ό
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93 β–Ό
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,880B β–²
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,176B β–²
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,825B β—†
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,888 β–Ό (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.96 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.9Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [INFO] Screener: NDSN β€” promotion-ready (24d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2816)).
  • [INFO] Screener: TMUS β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 48% (n=10182)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: KRYS β€” promotion-ready (29d on list, HIGH conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)).
  • [INFO] Screener: KRYS β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: CF β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 76/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.50%
  • Median Return: +0.50%
  • Hit Rate: 60%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] New Zealand Dollar struggles to gain traction as cautious RBNZ outlook weighs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-struggles-to-gain-traction-as-cautious-rbnz-outlook-weighs-202609071609 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 16:09:39 GMT

[2] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Pair consolidates around the 50-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-pair-consolidates-around-the-50-day-sma-202609071602 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 16:02:54 GMT

[3] United Kingdom: BoE holds but risks later cuts - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-boe-holds-but-risks-later-cuts-societe-generale-202609071552 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 15:52:00 GMT

[4] Bonk Price Forecast: BONK risks deeper losses as Korea's Upbit exchange delists meme coin URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bonk-price-forecast-bonk-risks-deeper-losses-as-koreas-upbit-exchange-delists-meme-coin-202609071532 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 15:32:44 GMT

[5] Australian Dollar hits three-month high as RBA rate hike bets intensify URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-hits-three-month-high-as-rba-rate-hike-bets-intensify-202609071515 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 15:15:37 GMT

[6] WTI Oil climbs as Middle East supply risks remain evelated URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-climbs-as-middle-east-supply-risks-remain-evelated-202609071512 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 15:12:59 GMT

[7] Japanese Yen: September BoJ decision shapes path - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-september-boj-decision-shapes-path-hsbc-202609071503 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 15:03:17 GMT

[8] Bank of Canada: Rates outlook and inflation risks - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-canada-rates-outlook-and-inflation-risks-td-securities-202609071441 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 14:41:09 GMT

[9] Eurozone: Resilient growth, worrying inflation - ABN AMRO URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-resilient-growth-worrying-inflation-abn-amro-202609071424 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 14:24:02 GMT

[10] Higher yields cap BTC upside, CPI could be key to the next move? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/higher-yields-cap-btc-upside-cpi-could-be-key-to-the-next-move-202609071412 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 14:12:21 GMT

[11] United Kingdom: Growth pace cools after hot start - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-growth-pace-cools-after-hot-start-deutsche-bank-202609071411 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 14:11:37 GMT

[12] US Dollar: CPI outcome to steer Fed path - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-cpi-outcome-to-steer-fed-path-bbh-202609071357 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 13:57:14 GMT

[13] Gold: Bull market conviction broadens - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-bull-market-conviction-broadens-societe-generale-202609071344 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 13:44:37 GMT

[14] Japanese Yen hits six-and-a-half-month high on hawkish BoJ bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-hits-six-and-a-half-month-high-on-hawkish-boj-bets-202609071337 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 13:37:38 GMT

[15] United States: Inflation risks but still contained - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-inflation-risks-but-still-contained-td-securities-202609071327 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 13:27:56 GMT

[16] Canadian Dollar finds support from Oil surge despite Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-finds-support-from-oil-surge-despite-fed-rate-hike-bets-202609071322 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 13:22:43 GMT

[17] Euro area: Inflation overshoot extends ECB hiking path - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-area-inflation-overshoot-extends-ecb-hiking-path-societe-generale-202609071316 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 13:16:12 GMT

[18] Asia FX: Oil shock keeps tone cautious - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asia-fx-oil-shock-keeps-tone-cautious-ocbc-202609071300 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 13:00:22 GMT

[19] Euro benefits from weaker US Dollar as ECB decision looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-benefits-from-weaker-us-dollar-as-ecb-decision-looms-202609071253 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:53:46 GMT

[20] Euro: ECB tightening supports currency - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-tightening-supports-currency-bbh-202609071245 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:45:11 GMT

[21] USD/JPY outlook: Japanese yen extends gains, hits the highest in over six months URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-outlook-japanese-yen-extends-gains-hits-the-highest-in-over-six-months-202609071244 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:44:51 GMT

[22] FX talking: Don't call it a Dollar comeback URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fx-talking-dont-call-it-a-dollar-comeback-202609071243 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:43:06 GMT

[23] XRP holds fragile support as futures OI steadies URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-slips-and-tests-140-support-amid-reduced-institutional-uptake-202609071230 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:30:00 GMT

[24] US Dollar: Range-bound support as Fed priced - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-range-bound-support-as-fed-priced-ing-202609071229 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:29:52 GMT

[25] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Six-month lows at the 209.20 area under pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-six-month-lows-at-the-20920-area-under-pressure-202609071222 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:22:17 GMT

[26] Canadian Dollar: Trade tensions and US CPI in focus - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trade-tensions-and-us-cpi-in-focus-td-securities-202609071215 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:15:39 GMT

[27] Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weekly-forex-forecast-eur-usd-xau-usd-gbp-usd-usd-jpy-bitcoin-and-more-video-202609071211 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:11:22 GMT

[28] Chile Trade Balance dipped from previous $1990M to $1688M in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chile-trade-balance-dipped-from-previous-1990m-to-1688m-in-august-202609071201 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:01:05 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (9):

[1] Erdogan accuses Israel of sabotaging Iran-US MoU, fueling regional war Time: 2026-09-07T15:59:45.476Z

[2] US economic blockade aims to collapse Islamic Republic, Iran lawmaker says Time: 2026-09-07T15:48:44.994Z

[3] Europe's third-way ambitions on Iran collide with Washington's pressure Time: 2026-09-07T15:25:04.085Z

[4] Hormuz traffic hits lowest level since May - Reuters Time: 2026-09-07T13:33:49.710Z

[5] Video: Iran refusing to cooperate until wider deal reached, IAEA chief says Time: 2026-09-07T13:29:15.692Z

[6] IRGC Navy says safe passage ends at Oman's Khasab Time: 2026-09-07T13:08:56.327Z

[7] UAE says energy exports will not be 'held hostage' by Iran war Time: 2026-09-07T12:48:17.740Z

[8] US seeks UN Security Council referral over Iran nuclear non-compliance - Bloomberg Time: 2026-09-07T12:38:17.726Z

[9] Senior Iran MP says US warships will have 'no safe haven' in region Time: 2026-09-07T12:29:04.537Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 191 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 7 of 60 normal daily β€” 8.2% of normal
  • Throughput: 8.0% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 333
  • Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS420 (+740% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost