Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-07 06:01:39 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.476 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 48% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.1% stable Β· real yield 2.45% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.43 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but dark pool, gamma, and correlations are turning bullish β if structural signals confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 48% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.476 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 48% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.79 | 50 SMA $756.14 | 200 SMA $711.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.08
- QQQ: $718.03 | 50 SMA $711.03 | 200 SMA $657.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.67
- IWM: $295.59 | 50 SMA $297.07 | 200 SMA $272.36 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.86
- VIX: 14.53 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.784%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.79 | 46.87 | 17.4 | $770.08 | Neutral | 1.43 |
| QQQ | $718.03 | 40.25 | 22.7 | $718.67 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| IWM | $295.59 | 34.02 | 10.7 | $295.86 | Bearish | 1.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.53 | 50.33 | 21.1 | $11.04 | Neutral | 1.39 |
| TNX | 47.84 | 56.96 | 26.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $406.55 | 54.98 | 37.1 | $407.69 | Bearish | 1.77 |
| DXY | 99.16 | 42.93 | 37.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.77 | 55.52 | 12.6 | $43.00 | Neutral | 0.76 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 18/19 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 41/54 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 14/19 |
| Financials | 64.7% | 44/68 |
| Technology | 54.7% | 35/64 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 11/24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 23/59 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 11/34 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 13/67 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 4/26 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 3/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $91.22 (5d: +6.4%)
- Brent Crude: $95.83 | Spread: $4.61
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.5500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.08/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.56
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.777 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.355 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.429 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.484 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,403,617.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,779,868.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $553.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $780 (Spot: $769.79)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.16
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,872B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,131B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,772B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,371 βΌ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.96 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] Screener: NDSN β promotion-ready (24d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2816)).
- [INFO] Screener: TMUS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 48% (n=10182)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β promotion-ready (29d on list, HIGH conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)).
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: CF β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 76/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.51%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (29):
[1] US Payrolls reopened the hike debate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-payrolls-reopened-the-hike-debate-202609071000 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:00:03 GMT
[2] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP falter despite steady spot ETF inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-falter-despite-steady-spot-etf-inflows-202609070958 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:58:01 GMT
[3] Euro tumbles as Japanese Yen benefits from BoJ rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-tumbles-as-japanese-yen-benefits-from-boj-rate-hike-bets-202609070955 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:55:36 GMT
[4] EM FX: Policy holds shape CLP, PLN, PEN, TRY - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/em-fx-policy-holds-shape-clp-pln-pen-try-bbh-202609070954 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:54:08 GMT
[5] Czech Koruna: CPI keeps CNB on hold but risks build - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/czech-koruna-cpi-keeps-cnb-on-hold-but-risks-build-commerzbank-202609070942 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:42:11 GMT
[6] Dukascopy Bank unveils AI-powered trading, 25,000+ stock CFDs and a new flagship E-banking app URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/dukascopy-bank-unveils-ai-powered-trading-25-000-stock-cfds-and-a-new-flagship-e-banking-app-202609070937 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:37:27 GMT
[7] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609070932 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:32:06 GMT
[8] ECB: Political strains test policy shield - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-political-strains-test-policy-shield-rabobank-202609070932 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:32:03 GMT
[9] BTC/USD - Potential for bigger drop [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/btc-usd-potential-for-bigger-drop-video-202609070922 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:22:45 GMT
[10] Federal Reserve: Inflation data steer policy path - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-inflation-data-steer-policy-path-td-securities-202609070918 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:18:55 GMT
[11] UK Chancellor Healey: I will build on Reeves' move to recover fiscal discipline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-chancellor-healey-i-will-build-on-reeves-move-to-recover-fiscal-discipline-202609070918 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:18:15 GMT
[12] Brent: Supply risks support prices - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-supply-risks-support-prices-danske-bank-202609070910 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:10:42 GMT
[13] JPY pairs selling resumes - USD/JPY 152, EUR/JPY 178 and GBP/JPY 207 next? [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/jpy-pairs-selling-resumes-usd-jpy-152-eur-jpy-178-and-gbp-jpy-207-next-video-202609070907 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:07:50 GMT
[14] Dow Jones futures fall as inflationary risks rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-fall-as-inflationary-risks-rise-202609070903 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:03:51 GMT
[15] Greece Gross Domestic Product s.a (YoY): 1.9% (2Q) vs previous 2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-gross-domestic-product-sa-yoy-19-2q-vs-previous-2-202609070900 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:00:42 GMT
[16] Greece Gross Domestic Product s.a (YoY): 0.3% (2Q) vs previous 2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-gross-domestic-product-sa-yoy-03-2q-vs-previous-2-202609070900 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:00:38 GMT
[17] Singapore Foreign Reserves (MoM) increased to 433B in August from previous 427.9B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-foreign-reserves-mom-increased-to-433b-in-august-from-previous-4279b-202609070900 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:00:35 GMT
[18] WTI struggles to hold above $90 despite material supply risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-struggles-to-hold-above-90-despite-material-supply-risks-202609070900 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:00:29 GMT
[19] Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) above forecasts (0.4%) in 2Q: Actual (0.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-gross-domestic-product-sa-qoq-above-forecasts-04-in-2q-actual-06-202609070900 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:00:03 GMT
[20] Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) came in at 1.2%, above expectations (1%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-gross-domestic-product-sa-yoy-came-in-at-12-above-expectations-1-in-2q-202609070900 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:00:03 GMT
[21] Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) meets expectations (0.5%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-employment-change-yoy-meets-expectations-05-in-2q-202609070900 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:00:03 GMT
[22] Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) meets expectations (0.1%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-employment-change-qoq-meets-expectations-01-in-2q-202609070900 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:00:02 GMT
[23] British Pound dives to six-month low vs rallying Yen amid bets for faster BoJ rate hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-dives-to-six-month-low-vs-rallying-yen-amid-bets-for-faster-boj-rate-hikes-202609070858 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 08:58:21 GMT
[24] US Dollar: Inflation data guide blackout repricing - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-inflation-data-guide-blackout-repricing-bny-202609070858 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 08:58:14 GMT
[25] August's US employment report allows USD to maintain the initiative URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/augusts-us-employment-report-allows-usd-to-maintain-the-initiative-202609070850 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 08:50:53 GMT
[26] Euro: Tight range with downside bias against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-tight-range-with-downside-bias-against-us-dollar-ing-202609070849 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 08:49:21 GMT
[27] Commodities: Oil to break higher? Precious metals bounce stalling [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/commodities-oil-to-break-higher-precious-metals-bounce-stalling-video-202609070840 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 08:40:07 GMT
[28] Swiss Franc: Downside risks build against Yen as policy diverges - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-downside-risks-build-against-yen-as-policy-diverges-dbs-202609070839 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 08:39:22 GMT
[29] Bitcoin stalled and CLARITY Act on the ropes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-stalled-and-clarity-act-on-the-ropes-202609070837 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 08:37:47 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (10):
[1] UAE blocks detained Iranian fishermen's return at last minute, Iranian official says Time: 2026-09-07T09:52:51.750Z
[2] Yemeni government forces advance against Houthis toward al-Jawf capital - Al Arabiya Time: 2026-09-07T09:41:38.126Z
[3] Video: Iran says talks with Oman on Hormuz safe route near final stage Time: 2026-09-07T09:26:50.123Z
[4] Canada supports US-led push to reopen Hormuz, pledges more pressure on Iran Time: 2026-09-07T09:13:55.861Z
[5] UN rights chief urges US, Iran to resume negotiations Time: 2026-09-07T09:07:04.026Z
[6] Ghalibaf threatens US energy assets after Hegseth warns Iran Time: 2026-09-07T08:46:03.213Z
[7] Iran says three militant cells dismantled in Sistan-Baluchestan Time: 2026-09-07T08:41:18.357Z
[8] Iranian fishermen detained by UAE to return home - state media Time: 2026-09-07T08:28:25.813Z
[9] Iran sends military delegation to Qatar over fate of three pilots Time: 2026-09-07T08:16:16.743Z
[10] UAE energy exports will not be held hostage in Hormuz, presidential adviser says Time: 2026-09-07T07:52:05.013Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 191 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 7.1% of normal
- Throughput: 14.0% of normal (1.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 333
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost