Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-07 04:01:41 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.476 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 48% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.1% stable Β· real yield 2.45% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.43 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but dark pool, gamma, and correlations are turning bullish β if structural signals confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 48% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.476 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 48% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.79 | 50 SMA $756.14 | 200 SMA $711.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.08
- QQQ: $718.03 | 50 SMA $711.03 | 200 SMA $657.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.67
- IWM: $295.59 | 50 SMA $297.07 | 200 SMA $272.36 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.86
- VIX: 14.53 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.784%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.79 | 46.87 | 17.4 | $770.08 | Neutral | 1.43 |
| QQQ | $718.03 | 40.25 | 22.7 | $718.67 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| IWM | $295.59 | 34.02 | 10.7 | $295.86 | Bearish | 1.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.53 | 50.33 | 21.1 | $11.04 | Neutral | 1.39 |
| TNX | 47.84 | 56.96 | 26.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $406.55 | 54.98 | 37.1 | $407.69 | Bearish | 1.77 |
| DXY | 99.16 | 42.93 | 37.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.77 | 55.52 | 12.6 | $43.00 | Neutral | 0.76 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 18/19 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 41/54 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 14/19 |
| Financials | 64.7% | 44/68 |
| Technology | 54.7% | 35/64 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 11/24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 23/59 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 11/34 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 13/67 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 4/26 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 3/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $91.22 (5d: +6.4%)
- Brent Crude: $95.83 | Spread: $4.61
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.5500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.08/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.56
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.777 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.355 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.429 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.484 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,403,617.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,779,868.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $553.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $780 (Spot: $769.79)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.16
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,872B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,131B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,772B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,403 βΌ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.96 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] Screener: NDSN β promotion-ready (24d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2816)).
- [INFO] Screener: TMUS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 48% (n=10182)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β promotion-ready (29d on list, HIGH conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)).
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: CF β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 76/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.51%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (28):
[1] New Zealand Dollar struggles due to cautious RBNZ policy outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-struggles-due-to-cautious-rbnz-policy-outlook-202609070757 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:57:04 GMT
[2] US Dollar: Strong payrolls fail to sustain Dollar gains - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-strong-payrolls-fail-to-sustain-dollar-gains-mufg-202609070753 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:53:18 GMT
[3] Canadian Dollar consolidates below mid-1.3800s as oil strength offsets USD Fed support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-consolidates-below-mid-13800s-as-oil-strength-offsets-usd-fed-support-202609070750 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:50:08 GMT
[4] Oil: Prices climb on supply risks - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-prices-climb-on-supply-risks-uob-202609070733 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:33:59 GMT
[5] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD dips below $66.00 and hints at a bearish "H&S" URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-dips-below-6600-and-hints-at-a-bearish-hs-202609070724 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:24:32 GMT
[6] Euro: Support at 180 eyed against Yen on BoJ risk - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-support-at-180-eyed-against-yen-on-boj-risk-dbs-202609070721 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:21:12 GMT
[7] Strong US jobs, Middle East tensions and key inflation data ahead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/strong-us-jobs-middle-east-tensions-and-key-inflation-data-ahead-202609070717 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:17:41 GMT
[8] Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) increased to 8.2% in August from previous 6.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-wholesale-prices-nsa-yoy-increased-to-82-in-august-from-previous-69-202609070708 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:08:52 GMT
[9] Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) up to 0.9% in August from previous 0.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-wholesale-prices-nsa-mom-up-to-09-in-august-from-previous-08-202609070708 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:08:50 GMT
[10] Equities: Labour data weighs on stocks - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-labour-data-weighs-on-stocks-danske-bank-202609070702 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:02:56 GMT
[11] Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) unchanged at 3.1% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-unemployment-rate-sa-mom-unchanged-at-31-in-august-202609070701 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:01:50 GMT
[12] Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves rose from previous 768B to 770B in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-foreign-currency-reserves-rose-from-previous-768b-to-770b-in-august-202609070700 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:00:31 GMT
[13] Euro holds losses against British Pound as German Industrial Production unexpectedly drops in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-losses-against-british-pound-as-german-industrial-production-unexpectedly-drops-in-july-202609070657 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:57:07 GMT
[14] CEE FX: Hawkish pricing versus dovish banks - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cee-fx-hawkish-pricing-versus-dovish-banks-ing-202609070655 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:55:42 GMT
[15] Australian Dollar posts fresh three-month high amid hawkish RBA prospects URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-posts-fresh-three-month-high-amid-hawkish-rba-prospects-202609070647 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:47:32 GMT
[16] US Dollar: Volatility risks around Fed decision - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-volatility-risks-around-fed-decision-commerzbank-202609070641 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:41:41 GMT
[17] The week ahead: Markets digest far right win in Germany, and wait for crucial US CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-week-ahead-markets-digest-far-right-win-in-germany-and-wait-for-crucial-us-cpi-202609070637 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:37:55 GMT
[18] S&P revises outlook on Freedom Holding Corp. and core subsidiaries to positive URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/sp-revises-outlook-on-freedom-holding-corp-and-core-subsidiaries-to-positive-202609070635 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:35:09 GMT
[19] Euro remains steady above 1.1610 despite weak German Industrial Production data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-steady-above-11610-despite-weak-german-industrial-production-data-202609070634 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:34:13 GMT
[20] Bittensor Price Forecast: TAO eyes $300 amid launch on Raydium, parody meme coin, ChatGPT-6 Astra release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bittensor-price-forecast-tao-eyes-300-amid-launch-on-raydium-parody-meme-coin-chatgpt-6-astra-release-202609070630 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:30:00 GMT
[21] Moody's assigns first-time insurance financial strength ratings to Freedom Insurance and Freedom Life URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/moodys-assigns-first-time-insurance-financial-strength-ratings-to-freedom-insurance-and-freedom-life-202609070629 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:29:33 GMT
[22] Oil: Tanker risks support prices - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-tanker-risks-support-prices-ing-202609070627 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:27:55 GMT
[23] CEE: Improved export momentum, but incomplete recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cee-improved-export-momentum-but-incomplete-recovery-202609070620 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:20:55 GMT
[24] Euro: Range holds before key data against US Dollar - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-holds-before-key-data-against-us-dollar-danske-bank-202609070619 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:19:22 GMT
[25] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Softens below 0.5900 while remaining in near-term consolidation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-softens-below-05900-while-remaining-in-near-term-consolidation-202609070618 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:18:02 GMT
[26] German Industrial Production declines 1.1% MoM in July, vs. 0.3% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/german-industrial-production-declines-11-mom-in-july-vs-03-expected-202609070611 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:11:00 GMT
[27] Tech rally rolls on, Oil nears US$100 and markets eye US CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/tech-rally-rolls-on-oil-nears-us100-and-markets-eye-us-cpi-202609070608 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:08:47 GMT
[28] CEE: Central bank meetings in Poland and Serbia URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cee-central-bank-meetings-in-poland-and-serbia-202609070605 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 06:05:23 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran rejects Vance's description of war as 'conflict,' calls it aggression Time: 2026-09-07T07:40:21.789Z
[BREAKING] [2] Iran warns South Korea against military role in Persian Gulf Time: 2026-09-07T07:02:04.633Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 191 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 7.1% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 333
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS510 (+920% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost