Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-04 06:01:19 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.454 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.96 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 52% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -1.4% neutral Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.42 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 151 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.85 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 23 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.2% yen strengthening, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.66% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, correlations, and inflation leaning bullish, but energy haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 75/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $92, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.454; GEX positive at 8.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.47 | 50 SMA $755.34 | 200 SMA $711.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $762.8
- QQQ: $716.67 | 50 SMA $710.89 | 200 SMA $656.59 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $709.78
- IWM: $294.89 | 50 SMA $297.10 | 200 SMA $272.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.34
- VIX: 14.32 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.762%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.47 | 35.61 | 11.3 | $762.80 | Neutral | 0.63 |
| QQQ | $716.67 | 31.38 | 21.4 | $709.78 | Neutral | 0.53 |
| IWM | $294.89 | 34.88 | 10.9 | $296.34 | Bearish | 2.04 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.32 | 52.82 | 20.0 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| TNX | 47.62 | 65.66 | 23.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $410.31 | 52.30 | 42.3 | $399.34 | Bearish | 0.49 |
| DXY | 99.00 | 39.87 | 39.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.57 | 52.59 | 14.0 | $57.29 | Bearish | 0.38 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.62B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.3%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 42.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $91.67 (5d: +9.9%)
- Brent Crude: $95.82 | Spread: $4.15
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.21/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.62
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.49
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.776 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.34 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.42 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.503 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,226,930.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,048,764.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.96 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $639.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $772.47)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.76%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.35% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,885B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,150B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,814B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $81,015 (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.503 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.09 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.454, GEX +8.6B, HY OAS 2.66%, breadth 52%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 151 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.48%
- Median Return: +0.69%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (28):
[1] Ireland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 10.2%, above expectations (3.9%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-gross-domestic-product-qoq-came-in-at-102-above-expectations-39-in-2q-202609041000 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 10:00:40 GMT
[2] Ireland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above expectations (-1.6%) in 2Q: Actual (-0.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-gross-domestic-product-yoy-above-expectations-16-in-2q-actual-04-202609041000 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 10:00:38 GMT
[3] IUX announces two new podcast series: IUX Market Trendline and The Market Journey URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/iux-announces-two-new-podcast-series-iux-market-trendline-and-the-market-journey-202609041000 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 10:00:07 GMT
[4] BoE's Bailey defends central bank flexibility, warns of bond market pressures URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boes-bailey-defends-central-bank-flexibility-warns-of-bond-market-pressures-202609040959 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:59:50 GMT
[5] Canadian Dollar: Data volatility guides Bank of Canada - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-data-volatility-guides-bank-of-canada-commerzbank-202609040957 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:57:23 GMT
[6] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovery stalls below $4.500 awaiting US Nonfarm Payrolls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-recovery-stalls-below-4500-awaiting-us-nonfarm-payrolls-202609040949 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:49:51 GMT
[7] US Dollar Index: Two-way risks within bearish channel - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-two-way-risks-within-bearish-channel-ocbc-202609040947 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:47:14 GMT
[8] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609040930 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:30:04 GMT
[9] Crypto market and Bitcoin break higher as wave three extension continues URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-market-and-bitcoin-break-higher-as-wave-three-extension-continues-202609040928 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:28:19 GMT
[10] Indian Rupee: Rate hike path supports currency - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rate-hike-path-supports-currency-societe-generale-202609040927 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:27:04 GMT
[11] Experts agree: US-Iran tensions are far from over as Hormuz risks return URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/experts-agree-us-iran-tensions-are-far-from-over-as-hormuz-risks-return-202609040916 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:16:49 GMT
[12] Japanese Yen: Stronger yen driven by fundamentals - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-stronger-yen-driven-by-fundamentals-mufg-202609040915 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:15:08 GMT
[13] British Pound: Budget risks weigh on Sterling - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-budget-risks-weigh-on-sterling-rabobank-202609040906 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:06:08 GMT
[14] Week ahead - Dollar at a crossroads as CPI and ECB take centre stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/week-ahead-dollar-at-a-crossroads-as-cpi-and-ecb-take-centre-stage-202609040902 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:02:59 GMT
[15] Eurozone Retail Sales decline unexpectedly 0.6% MoM in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-retail-sales-declines-unexpectedly-06-mom-in-july-202609040902 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:02:49 GMT
[16] Greece Unemployment Rate (QoQ) dipped from previous 10.6% to 7.9% in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-unemployment-rate-qoq-dipped-from-previous-106-to-79-in-2q-202609040900 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:00:02 GMT
[17] Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.6%, below expectations (0.3%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-retail-sales-mom-came-in-at-06-below-expectations-03-in-july-202609040900 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:00:02 GMT
[18] Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.1%) in July: Actual (0.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-retail-sales-yoy-below-expectations-11-in-july-actual-06-202609040900 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 09:00:02 GMT
[19] Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/why-hawkish-bank-of-japan-expectations-arent-enough-to-sustain-the-japanese-yen-rally-202609040856 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:56:27 GMT
[20] Gold - Fading the rally for the better risk to reward profile [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-fading-the-rally-for-the-better-risk-to-reward-profile-video-202609040852 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:52:28 GMT
[21] Euro: Gradual recovery from Warsh sell-off against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gradual-recovery-from-warsh-sell-off-against-us-dollar-ing-202609040852 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:52:24 GMT
[22] EUR/USD and GBP/USD bounce, JPY crosses recover - Can it continue, Bitcoin eyes higher [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-and-gbp-usd-bounce-jpy-crosses-recover-can-it-continue-bitcoin-eyes-higher-video-202609040851 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:51:54 GMT
[23] Pi Network Price Forecast: PI reclaims 50-day EMA as overhead resistance looms near $0.10 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-pi-reclaims-50-day-ema-as-overhead-resistance-looms-near-010-202609040843 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:43:51 GMT
[24] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bulls turn cautious as 1.3550 cap gains ahead of US NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-bulls-turn-cautious-as-13550-cap-gains-ahead-of-us-nfp-202609040834 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:34:20 GMT
[25] United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI registered at 44.3, below expectations (45.9) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-construction-pmi-registered-at-443-below-expectations-459-in-august-202609040830 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:30:15 GMT
[26] US August Nonfarm Payrolls expected to rebound to 56K after July slump URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-august-nonfarm-payrolls-expected-to-rebound-to-58k-after-july-slump-202609040830 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:30:00 GMT
[27] Hungarian Forint: Forint supported by possible MNB pause - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-forint-supported-by-possible-mnb-pause-commerzbank-202609040828 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:28:23 GMT
[28] Euro recovery against Japanese Yen stalls despite upbeat German Factory data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-recovery-against-japanese-yen-stalls-despite-upbeat-german-factory-data-202609040823 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:23:41 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Huckabee says Iran in 'incredibly weakened position' Time: 2026-09-04T09:16:27.305Z
[2] Lloyd's puts Iran war losses at Β£1.4 billion, estimate still preliminary Time: 2026-09-04T09:01:31.809Z
[3] Army spokesman says US, Israel failed to achieve goals in Iran war Time: 2026-09-04T08:42:29.565Z
[4] US seeks broader Iran deal covering nuclear program, Hormuz - FT Time: 2026-09-04T08:20:41.436Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 188 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 408
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 60.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost