Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-04 07:12:45 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.2% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.454 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.96 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 52% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -2.0% slowing Β· real yield 2.45% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.42 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 151 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.91 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.66% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, correlations, and inflation leaning bullish, but growth expectations haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.454; GEX positive at 8.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, PFE
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=186) | 3d 37% (n=186) | 5d 35% (n=186)
- Screener Board Record: 328 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 158 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $773.64 | 50 SMA $756.14 | 200 SMA $711.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.97
- QQQ: $721.01 | 50 SMA $711.03 | 200 SMA $657.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $714.2
- IWM: $295.19 | 50 SMA $297.07 | 200 SMA $272.36 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.21
- VIX: 14.15 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.762%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $773.64 | 46.87 | 17.4 | $770.97 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| QQQ | $721.01 | 40.25 | 22.7 | $714.20 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| IWM | $295.19 | 34.02 | 10.7 | $296.21 | Bearish | 1.82 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.15 | 50.33 | 21.1 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.37 |
| TNX | 47.62 | 56.96 | 26.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $410.12 | 54.98 | 37.1 | $402.77 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| DXY | 99.08 | 41.67 | 37.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.36 | 55.52 | 12.6 | $57.28 | Bearish | 0.45 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.62B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 42.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $90.50 (5d: +5.5%)
- Brent Crude: $94.97 | Spread: $4.47
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.5300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.68/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.62
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.49
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.776 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.34 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.42 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.503 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.96 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $639.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $773.64)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.76%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.08
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,877B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,124B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,769B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $81,138 (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 38 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 101 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 47 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 45 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 46 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 45 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_underlying_price has printed the same value (745.9425) for 46 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_flow_dex_pct_shift has printed the same value (0.0) for 45 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 45 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_settled_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 45 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.48%
- Median Return: +0.70%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 4.1 | Prev: 4.2
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] AUD/USD Price Forecast: On track to revisit four-year high near 0.7280 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-on-track-to-revisit-four-year-high-near-07280-202609041105 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 11:05:38 GMT
[2] Gold pauses after two-day recovery as US NFP looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-pauses-after-two-day-recovery-as-us-nfp-looms-202609041103 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 11:03:54 GMT
[3] Zcash Price Forecast: Rally hits nine-year high above $1,000 amid growing shielded demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/zcash-price-forecast-rally-hits-nine-year-high-above-1-000-amid-growing-shielded-demand-202609041058 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 10:58:25 GMT
[4] British Pound pulls back from session highs as BoE Bailey tames rate hike hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-pulls-back-from-session-highs-as-boe-bailey-tames-rate-hike-hopes-202609041045 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 10:45:29 GMT
[5] US Nonfarm Payrolls to give session its direction ahead of long US weekend URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-nonfarm-payrolls-to-give-session-its-direction-ahead-of-long-us-weekend-202609041039 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 10:39:33 GMT
[6] Australian Dollar edges higher vs Yen as RBA tightening bets meet BoJ normalization hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-edges-higher-vs-yen-as-rba-tightening-bets-meets-boj-normalization-hopes-202609041022 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 10:22:53 GMT
[7] Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Gearing up for a sharp move URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-weekly-forecast-gearing-up-for-a-sharp-move-202609041018 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 10:18:45 GMT
[8] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP recovery takes a breather amid capital inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-recovery-takes-a-breather-amid-capital-inflows-202609041013 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 10:13:39 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] Pakistan, Qatar and Oman in contact with Iran, US to ease tensions - Al Arabiya Time: 2026-09-04T10:57:33.302Z
[2] Cleric says Tehran should not seek peace under threat Time: 2026-09-04T10:43:52.453Z
[3] US military disables ad trackers amid Iran targeting concerns - Reuters Time: 2026-09-04T10:14:18.194Z
[4] Air defense chief says Iran fully self-sufficient in equipment Time: 2026-09-04T10:07:42.552Z
[5] Tehran prayer leader says Iran will 'never surrender' Time: 2026-09-04T10:02:24.437Z
[6] Israel says Hezbollah tunnels under key Lebanon ridge cleared Time: 2026-09-04T09:55:30.130Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 188 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 13.3% of normal
- Throughput: 8.7% of normal (0.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 408
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS350 (+600% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost