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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-04 04:01:24 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.454 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.96 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +8.6B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 52% β€” mixed participation
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold -1.4% neutral Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.42 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 151 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.85 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 23 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” USD/JPY 5d -2.2% yen strengthening, MOVE 75 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.66% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, correlations, and inflation leaning bullish, but energy haven't signed on yet β€” rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 75/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $92, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.454; GEX positive at 8.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $772.47 | 50 SMA $755.34 | 200 SMA $711.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $762.8
  • QQQ: $716.67 | 50 SMA $710.89 | 200 SMA $656.59 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $709.78
  • IWM: $294.89 | 50 SMA $297.10 | 200 SMA $272.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.34
  • VIX: 14.32 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.762%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $772.47 35.61 11.3 $762.80 Neutral 0.63
QQQ $716.67 31.38 21.4 $709.78 Neutral 0.53
IWM $294.89 34.88 10.9 $296.34 Bearish 2.04

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.32 52.82 20.0 $11.05 Neutral 1.35
TNX 47.62 65.66 23.2 - - -
GLD $410.31 52.30 42.3 $399.34 Bearish 0.49
DXY 99.00 39.87 39.4 - - -
SLV $60.57 52.59 14.0 $57.29 Bearish 0.38

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.62B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.7%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.3%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 0/0
Health Care 79.6% 0/0
Communication Services 78.9% 0/0
Financials 69.1% 0/0
Materials 62.5% 0/0
Technology 56.9% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 45.8% 0/0
Consumer Staples 42.4% 0/0
Real Estate 23.1% 0/0
Industrials 19.4% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $91.67 (5d: +9.9%)
  • Brent Crude: $95.82 | Spread: $4.15
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.6000/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.21/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $64.62
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.49

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.776 normal
SPY / DXY -0.34 normal
SPY / TNX -0.42 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.503 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.68
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,226,930.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,048,764.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.96 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $639.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $772.47)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.76%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.00
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.35% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,885B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,150B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,814B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,692 (Risk-on)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.503 with energy in RISING β€” crude shock propagating into equities.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.09 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.9Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.454, GEX +8.6B, HY OAS 2.66%, breadth 52%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 151 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.48%
  • Median Return: +0.69%
  • Hit Rate: 60%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Pound star G10 performer but Burnham Budget spending risks weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/pound-star-g10-performer-but-burnham-budget-spending-risks-weigh-202609040759 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:59:42 GMT

[2] Dow Jones futures steady as traders await US Nonfarm Payrolls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-steady-as-traders-await-us-nonfarm-payrolls-202609040756 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:56:59 GMT

[3] British Pound rebounds swiftly from one-month low against broadly weaker Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-rebounds-swiftly-from-one-month-low-against-broadly-weaker-yen-202609040743 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:43:44 GMT

[4] USD/JPY Price Forecast: US Dollar recovery is likely to be tested at 156.70 area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-us-dollar-recovery-is-likely-to-be-tested-at-15670-area-202609040743 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:43:29 GMT

[5] Gold: Rebound on softer Fed expectations - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rebound-on-softer-fed-expectations-ocbc-202609040742 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:42:00 GMT

[6] Crypto's $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptos-638-million-buyback-boom-may-not-be-as-bullish-as-it-looks-202609040732 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:32:42 GMT

[7] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD corrects $66.30 amid caution ahead of US NFP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-corrects-6630-amid-caution-ahead-of-us-nfp-data-202609040732 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:32:15 GMT

[8] Euro steadies against Canadian Dollar following Germany's Factory Orders data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-steadies-against-canadian-dollar-following-germanys-factory-orders-data-202609040732 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:32:05 GMT

[9] August's US employment report front and center URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/augusts-us-employment-report-front-and-center-202609040726 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:26:09 GMT

[10] Indian Rupee: RBI inflows and reduced tail risks - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-inflows-and-reduced-tail-risks-mufg-202609040720 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:20:34 GMT

[11] A smart solution for Indonesian traders: Maximize your profits with TradingPRO's IDR Account URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/a-smart-solution-for-indonesian-traders-maximize-your-profits-with-tradingpros-idr-account-202609040720 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:20:24 GMT

[12] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Holds steady near 99.00 below key averages before US jobs data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-holds-steady-near-9900-below-key-averages-before-us-jobs-data-202609040705 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:05:51 GMT

[13] US Dollar: Fed outlook stays data-dependent after Waller - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-outlook-stays-data-dependent-after-waller-danske-bank-202609040705 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:05:29 GMT

[14] Euro pulls back against a firmer British Pound following hawkish BoE rhetoric URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-pulls-back-against-a-firmer-british-pound-following-hawkish-boe-rhetoric-202609040704 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:04:42 GMT

[15] TradingPRO celebrates 10 years with a USD 10,000 global trading contest URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/tradingpro-celebrates-10-years-with-a-usd-10-000-global-trading-contest-202609040704 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:04:17 GMT

[16] PU Prime launches Australian operations under ASIC licence URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/pu-prime-launches-australian-operations-under-asic-licence-202609040659 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:59:30 GMT

[17] The Dollar shows no clear trend URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-dollar-shows-no-clear-trend-202609040657 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:57:05 GMT

[18] Jobs day URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/jobs-day-202609040652 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:52:41 GMT

[19] Oil: Elevated prices face fragile support - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-elevated-prices-face-fragile-support-ing-202609040648 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:48:48 GMT

[20] PepsiCo vs Coca-Cola: Which stock has the edge? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pepsico-vs-coca-cola-which-stock-has-the-edge-202609040647 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:47:29 GMT

[21] New Zealand Dollar advances as US Dollar struggles on softening hawkish expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-advances-as-us-dollar-struggles-on-softening-hawkish-expectations-202609040647 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:47:14 GMT

[22] Forex Today: US Dollar retreats on easing Fed rate hike bets, focus shifts to NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-retreats-on-easing-fed-rate-hike-bets-focus-shifts-to-nfp-202609040640 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:40:42 GMT

[23] The commodities feed: Oil maintains gains amid Persian gulf escalation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-commodities-feed-oil-maintains-gains-amid-persian-gulf-escalation-202609040639 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:39:10 GMT

[24] Japanese Yen: Policy signals support JPY against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-policy-signals-support-jpy-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202609040636 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:36:39 GMT

[25] USD/CAD Price Forecast: 100-day EMA remains key hurdle URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-100-day-ema-remains-key-hurdle-202609040627 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:27:25 GMT

[26] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Uniswap, Cardano & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 04 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-uniswap-cardano-bitcoin-asian-wrap-04-september-202609040626 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:26:17 GMT

[27] Australian Dollar edges higher above 0.7200 on rising RBA hike bets, eyes on US NFP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-edges-higher-above-07200-on-rising-rba-hike-bets-eyes-on-us-nfp-data-202609040625 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:25:52 GMT

[28] Euro stalls above 1.1600 with Eurozone Retail Sales, US Nonfarm Payrolls on tap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-stalls-above-11600-with-eurozone-retail-sales-us-nonfarm-payrolls-on-tap-202609040621 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:21:21 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (8):

[1] Araghchi pushes back on Jordan over Iran response remarks Time: 2026-09-04T07:56:41.683Z

[2] Novak says China to take over 60% of Russia's gas exports by 2030 Time: 2026-09-04T07:28:59.239Z

[3] Clashes in Yemen kill at least 81 fighters - AFP Time: 2026-09-04T06:46:11.009Z

[4] Air defense commander says Iran will 'surprise the enemy' Time: 2026-09-04T06:35:29.467Z

[5] Sechin says China has overcome Hormuz crisis with reserves, Russia ties Time: 2026-09-04T06:20:14.129Z

[6] Tehran mayor says essential goods stocked for coming months Time: 2026-09-04T06:12:00.348Z

[7] Deputy speaker says Iran should target US economic interests in region Time: 2026-09-04T06:03:33.274Z

[8] Lawmaker urges Iran to reduce reliance on dollar to withstand sanctions Time: 2026-09-04T06:00:32.066Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 188 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β€” 13.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 13.0% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 408
  • Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS450 (+800% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost