Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-04 02:01:38 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.454 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.96 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 52% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -1.4% neutral Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.42 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 151 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.85 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 23 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.2% yen strengthening, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.66% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, correlations, and inflation leaning bullish, but energy haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 75/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $92, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.454; GEX positive at 8.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.47 | 50 SMA $755.34 | 200 SMA $711.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $762.8
- QQQ: $716.67 | 50 SMA $710.89 | 200 SMA $656.59 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $709.78
- IWM: $294.89 | 50 SMA $297.10 | 200 SMA $272.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.34
- VIX: 14.32 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.762%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.47 | 35.61 | 11.3 | $762.80 | Neutral | 0.63 |
| QQQ | $716.67 | 31.38 | 21.4 | $709.78 | Neutral | 0.53 |
| IWM | $294.89 | 34.88 | 10.9 | $296.34 | Bearish | 2.04 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.32 | 52.82 | 20.0 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| TNX | 47.62 | 65.66 | 23.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $410.31 | 52.30 | 42.3 | $399.34 | Bearish | 0.49 |
| DXY | 99.00 | 39.87 | 39.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.57 | 52.59 | 14.0 | $57.29 | Bearish | 0.38 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.62B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.3%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 42.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $91.67 (5d: +9.9%)
- Brent Crude: $95.82 | Spread: $4.15
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.21/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.62
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.49
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.776 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.34 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.42 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.503 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,226,930.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,048,764.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.96 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $639.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $772.47)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.76%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.35% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,885B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,150B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,814B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,970 (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.503 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.09 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.454, GEX +8.6B, HY OAS 2.66%, breadth 52%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 151 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.48%
- Median Return: +0.69%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (23):
[1] Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) registered at 2.5% above expectations (0.3%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-factory-orders-sa-mom-registered-at-25-above-expectations-03-in-july-202609040600 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 06:00:03 GMT
[2] US jobs report takes focus after strong services data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-jobs-report-takes-focus-after-strong-services-data-202609040556 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:56:56 GMT
[3] Uniswap purchases rival PONS token for long-term alignment as both coins rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/uniswap-purchases-rival-pons-token-for-long-term-alignment-as-both-coins-rally-202609040556 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:56:05 GMT
[4] Indonesian Rupiah declines as US Dollar gains despite easing Fed rate hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-declines-as-us-dollar-gains-despite-easing-fed-rate-hike-odds-202609040554 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:54:02 GMT
[5] British Pound strengthens above 1.3500 as BoE stays hawkish, traders brace for US NFP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-strengthens-above-13500-as-boe-stays-hawkish-traders-brace-for-us-nfp-data-202609040550 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:50:52 GMT
[6] Cautious equity gains seen, focal points ahead of the weekend include US jobs data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cautious-equity-gains-seen-focal-points-ahead-of-the-weekend-include-us-jobs-data-202609040549 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:49:05 GMT
[7] Indian Rupee trades close to two-month low ahead of US NFP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-trades-close-to-two-month-low-ahead-of-us-nfp-data-202609040546 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:46:52 GMT
[8] Fiscal pressures mount in Poland URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fiscal-pressures-mount-in-poland-202609040543 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:43:24 GMT
[9] Cardano Price Forecast: Extends gains as whale accumulation and derivatives positioning fuel bullish bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cardano-price-forecast-extends-gains-as-whale-accumulation-and-derivatives-positioning-fuel-bullish-bias-202609040538 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:38:22 GMT
[10] Japanese Yen retreats from August highs as USD bears turn cautious ahead of US NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-retreats-from-august-highs-as-usd-bears-turn-cautious-ahead-of-us-nfp-202609040529 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:29:07 GMT
[11] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609040505 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:05:29 GMT
[12] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609040500 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:00:31 GMT
[13] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609040455 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 04:55:11 GMT
[14] Swiss Franc weakens ahead of Unemployment Rate data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-ahead-of-unemployment-rate-data-202609040450 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 04:50:49 GMT
[15] CFTC files to dismiss CME lawsuit over crypto perpetual futures URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cftc-files-to-dismiss-cme-lawsuit-over-crypto-perpetual-futures-202609040449 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 04:49:26 GMT
[16] Defying growing headwinds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/defying-growing-headwinds-202609040446 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 04:46:38 GMT
[17] WTI Price Forecast: Bulls await acceptance above $90.00 and 61.8% Fibo. amid Iran risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-bulls-await-acceptance-above-9000-and-618-fibo-amid-iran-risks-202609040446 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 04:46:11 GMT
[18] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609040446 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 04:46:06 GMT
[19] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds above 112.50, while staying constrained below 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-rebounds-above-11250-while-staying-constrained-below-100-day-sma-202609040439 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 04:39:09 GMT
[20] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609040435 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 04:35:47 GMT
[21] Gold Price Forecast: Tempered hawkish Fed bets lift XAU/USD near $4,500 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-forecast-tempered-hawkish-fed-bets-lift-xau-usd-near-4-500-202609040435 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 04:35:45 GMT
[22] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609040430 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 04:30:37 GMT
[23] Gold bulls seem hesitant below $4,500 amid modest USD bounce ahead of US NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-consolidates-below-4-500-as-bulls-look-to-us-nfp-for-fed-rate-cues-202609040418 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 04:18:00 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran education minister says schools will stay open for in-person classes Time: 2026-09-04T04:45:00.000Z
[2] Iran lawmaker warns economic pressure could erode public trust Time: 2026-09-04T04:28:10.552Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 188 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 408
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost