Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-04 00:01:21 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.454 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.96 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 52% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -1.4% neutral Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.76 normal, SPY/DXY -0.33 normal, SPY/TNX -0.41 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.42 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 151 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.85 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 23 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.2% yen strengthening, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.66% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, correlations, and inflation leaning bullish, but energy haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $92, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.454; GEX positive at 8.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.47 | 50 SMA $755.34 | 200 SMA $711.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $762.8
- QQQ: $716.67 | 50 SMA $710.89 | 200 SMA $656.59 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $709.78
- IWM: $294.89 | 50 SMA $297.10 | 200 SMA $272.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.34
- VIX: 14.32 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.762%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.47 | 35.61 | 11.3 | $762.80 | Neutral | 0.63 |
| QQQ | $716.67 | 31.38 | 21.4 | $709.78 | Neutral | 0.53 |
| IWM | $294.89 | 34.88 | 10.9 | $296.34 | Bearish | 2.04 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.32 | 52.82 | 20.0 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| TNX | 47.62 | 65.66 | 23.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $410.31 | 52.30 | 42.3 | $399.34 | Bearish | 0.49 |
| DXY | 99.00 | 39.87 | 39.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.57 | 52.59 | 14.0 | $57.29 | Bearish | 0.38 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.62B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.3%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 42.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $91.67 (5d: +9.9%)
- Brent Crude: $95.82 | Spread: $4.15
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.21/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.62
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.49
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.761 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.333 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.407 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.417 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,226,930.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,048,764.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.96 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $639.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $772.47)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.76%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.35% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,885B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,150B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,814B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,838 (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: real_yield_5y has printed the same value (2.18) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.09 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.454, GEX +8.6B, HY OAS 2.66%, breadth 52%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 151 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-03 β PK (conviction 73/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)); ODFL (conviction 62/100, range_noise, calibrated pair_divergence hit-rate 48% (n=816)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: NTNX β promotion-ready (93d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 38% (n=47)).
- [INFO] Screener: GAP β promotion-ready (42d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 38% (n=47)).
- [INFO] Screener: DOCU β promotion-ready (42d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 38% (n=47)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.48%
- Median Return: +0.69%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] Morning briefing: EUR/USD head towards 1.1700 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-eur-usd-head-towards-11700-202609040355 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 03:55:37 GMT
[2] Elliott Wave analysis: EUR/JPY anticipating a broader correction against the latest high URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/elliott-wave-analysis-eur-jpy-anticipating-a-broader-correction-against-the-latest-high-202609040354 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 03:54:47 GMT
[3] ECB preview: Hiking, not guiding URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ecb-preview-hiking-not-guiding-202609040352 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 03:52:05 GMT
[4] Crypto Overview: Bitcoin clears $80,000 on reduced rate hike odds - Zcash, Ethena rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-overview-bitcoin-clears-80-000-on-reduced-rate-hike-odds-zcash-ethena-rise-202609040346 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 03:46:31 GMT
[5] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Trades near 181.50 after rebounding from descending channel bottom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-trades-near-18150-after-rebounding-from-descending-channel-bottom-202609040338 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 03:38:50 GMT
[6] Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple - BTC, ETH and XRP await US NFP for next directional move URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-btc-eth-and-xrp-await-us-nfp-for-next-directional-move-202609040332 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 03:32:35 GMT
[7] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Strong recovery from 100-day MA ahead of US NFP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-strong-recovery-from-100-day-ma-ahead-of-us-nfp-data-202609040320 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 03:20:10 GMT
[8] New Zealand Dollar gains momentum to near 0.5900, US NFP data looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-gains-momentum-to-near-05900-us-nfp-data-looms-202609040245 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 02:45:10 GMT
[9] Japan's Katayama says will closely monitoring bond markets with heightened urgency URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-says-will-closely-monitoring-bond-markets-with-heightened-urgency-202609040239 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 02:39:57 GMT
[10] United States Dollar Index weakens as Fed's Waller signals rate pause URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-weakens-as-feds-waller-signals-rate-pause-202609040225 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 02:25:55 GMT
[11] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades below $67.00 amid mixed setup as US NFP looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-trades-below-6700-amid-mixed-setup-as-us-nfp-looms-202609040223 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 02:23:59 GMT
[12] Australian Dollar strengthens on RBA hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-strengthens-on-rba-hike-odds-202609040207 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 02:07:14 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] US probes Iran wedding strike as experts suggest direct hit Time: 2026-09-04T03:28:34.617Z
[2] South Korea says military options under review for Hormuz contribution Time: 2026-09-04T03:02:22.762Z
[3] Kremlin pushes back on Bessent warning over Russia-Iran ties Time: 2026-09-04T02:22:46.088Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 188 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 13.3% of normal
- Throughput: 8.0% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 408
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS230 (+360% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost