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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-03 08:01:34 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 62% (5 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT DIX 0.465 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +6.1B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 51% β€” mixed participation
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -4.4% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.75 normal, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.46 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.67 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 24 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, correlations, and inflation leaning bullish, but dark pool and energy haven't signed on yet β€” rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.465; GEX positive at 6.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $764.63 | 50 SMA $754.71 | 200 SMA $710.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.81
  • QQQ: $708.42 | 50 SMA $710.98 | 200 SMA $656.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.19
  • IWM: $293.77 | 50 SMA $297.13 | 200 SMA $271.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.09
  • VIX: 15.20 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.796%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $764.63 38.41 26.9 $755.81 Neutral 0.88
QQQ $708.42 38.20 38.0 $707.19 Neutral 0.86
IWM $293.77 28.88 17.8 $293.09 Neutral 1.26

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.20 59.89 17.6 $11.07 Neutral 0.98
TNX 47.96 60.63 31.8 - - -
GLD $402.71 45.07 41.8 $399.42 Neutral 0.81
DXY 99.56 41.16 23.5 - - -
SLV $59.05 46.71 14.2 $42.00 Neutral 1.32

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.465
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.06B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Financials 58.8% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 54.5% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.1% 0/0
Industrials 32.8% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $90.63 (5d: +8.5%)
  • Brent Crude: $95.23 | Spread: $4.60
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.6600/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.41/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $65.10
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.75

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.748 normal
SPY / DXY -0.167 normal
SPY / TNX -0.34 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.46 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.71
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,949,218.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,440,892.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $488.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $764.63)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.80%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.56
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,064B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,701B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,898 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bullish trend β€” historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.15 (vs 20d avg 129.58, +2.0Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.465, GEX +6.1B, HY OAS 2.65%, breadth 51%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 37 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.53%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (22):

[1] Japanese Yen: BoJ meeting to decide JPY path - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-meeting-to-decide-jpy-path-commerzbank-202609031150 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:50:07 GMT

[2] EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA acts as key support level URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-20-day-ema-acts-as-key-support-level-202609031146 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:46:01 GMT

[3] What is keeping the US Dollar supported as front-end rates and ISM expectations point higher? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/what-is-keeping-the-us-dollar-supported-as-front-end-rates-and-ism-expectations-point-higher-202609031142 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:42:47 GMT

[4] The Yen squeezes higher, though official fingerprints are elusive URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-yen-squeezes-higher-though-official-fingerprints-are-elusive-202609031140 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:40:46 GMT

[5] Federal Reserve: September hike bias shifts - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-september-hike-bias-shifts-ing-202609031129 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:29:34 GMT

[6] Economists agree: ECB to hike rates on September 10 - Reuters poll URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/economists-agree-ecb-to-hike-rates-on-september-10-reuters-poll-202609031128 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:28:53 GMT

[7] WTI Oil hits highs near $91 as risks of an all-out war in the Middle East grow URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-hits-highs-near-91-as-risks-of-an-all-out-war-in-the-middle-east-grow-202609031121 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:21:26 GMT

[8] US Dollar: Near-term stabilization view - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-near-term-stabilization-view-bbh-202609031118 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:18:41 GMT

[9] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC steadies as markets turn cautious ahead of key economic data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-steadies-as-markets-turn-cautious-ahead-of-key-economic-data-202609031113 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:13:18 GMT

[10] Gold climbs as Yen-led US Dollar decline outweighs hawkish Fed expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-climbs-as-yen-led-us-dollar-decline-outweighs-hawkish-fed-expectations-202609031112 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:12:31 GMT

[11] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD risk aversion takes hold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-risk-aversion-takes-hold-202609031100 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:00:21 GMT

[12] Our latest views on the major central banks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/our-latest-views-on-the-major-central-banks-202609031058 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:58:58 GMT

[13] New Zealand Dollar gains against US Dollar due to unfavorable US NFP backdrop URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-gains-against-us-dollar-due-to-unfavorable-us-nfp-backdrop-202609031057 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:57:42 GMT

[14] Euro tumbles as Japanese Yen surges on intervention threats URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-tumbles-as-japanese-yen-surges-on-intervention-threats-202609031054 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:54:50 GMT

[15] Detroit strikes back: Why legacy automakers are rewriting the EV story (TSLA vs FORD) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/detroit-strikes-back-why-legacy-automakers-are-rewriting-the-ev-story-tsla-vs-ford-202609031052 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:52:47 GMT

[16] Yen recovery gathers momentum as BoJ turns hawkish and NFP looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yen-recovery-gathers-momentum-as-boj-turns-hawkish-and-nfp-looms-202609031050 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:50:56 GMT

[17] EUR/JPY - Steep fall extends into second straight day and accelerates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-jpy-steep-fall-extends-into-second-straight-day-and-accelerates-202609031043 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:43:57 GMT

[18] Markets do a U-turn URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-do-a-u-turn-202609031038 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:38:01 GMT

[19] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovery, likely to be challenged around $4,470 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-recovery-likely-to-be-challenged-around-4-470-202609031020 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:20:07 GMT

[20] Swiss Franc: Swiss data supports dip-buying case - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-swiss-data-supports-dip-buying-case-societe-generale-202609031005 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:05:37 GMT

[21] 0.8600 under pressure: EUR/GBP at two-month highs following Services PMIs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/08600-under-pressure-eur-gbp-at-two-month-highs-following-services-pmis-202609031003 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:03:11 GMT

[22] USD/CAD price outlook: US Dollar/Canadian Dollar navigating between Arc levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-cad-price-outlook-us-dollar-canadian-dollar-navigating-between-arc-levels-202609031002 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:02:30 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Trump says Hormuz oil volumes are 'back' Time: 2026-09-03T11:54:27.103Z

[2] Three Iranian military pilots killed in US strike, IRGC media says Time: 2026-09-03T11:15:36.624Z

[3] Iran's VP warns of 'dark months' for US economy Time: 2026-09-03T11:05:24.679Z

[4] Israel's Katz says Iran attack would bring strikes to return it to 'Stone Age' Time: 2026-09-03T10:10:07.538Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 187 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β€” 13.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 12.4% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 465
  • Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS145 (+190% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost