Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-03 08:31:57 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 57% (4 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.465 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -2.5% slowing Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.75 normal, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.46 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.62 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $92, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.465; GEX positive at 6.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, PFE
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=190) | 3d 37% (n=190) | 5d 35% (n=190)
- Screener Board Record: 316 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 160 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $766.65 | 50 SMA $755.34 | 200 SMA $711.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.88
- QQQ: $709.67 | 50 SMA $710.89 | 200 SMA $656.59 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $709.06
- IWM: $294.86 | 50 SMA $297.10 | 200 SMA $272.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.15
- VIX: 15.14 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.766%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $766.65 | 35.61 | 11.3 | $755.88 | Neutral | 1.28 |
| QQQ | $709.67 | 31.38 | 21.4 | $709.06 | Neutral | 1.05 |
| IWM | $294.86 | 34.88 | 10.9 | $296.15 | Bearish | 1.88 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.14 | 52.82 | 20.0 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.18 |
| TNX | 47.66 | 65.66 | 23.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $409.10 | 52.30 | 42.3 | $402.63 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| DXY | 99.13 | 35.71 | 28.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.91 | 52.59 | 14.0 | $42.00 | Neutral | 0.56 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.465
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.06B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $92.13 (5d: +10.5%)
- Brent Crude: $96.36 | Spread: $4.23
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9300/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.4900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $52.77/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.10
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.75
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.748 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.167 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.34 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.46 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.71
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $488.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $766.65)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.77%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.13
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,064B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,175 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bullish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.15 (vs 20d avg 129.58, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.465, GEX +6.1B, HY OAS 2.65%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 37 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.53%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (16):
[1] United States Nonfarm Productivity meets forecasts (1.4%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-nonfarm-productivity-meets-forecasts-14-in-2q-202609031231 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:31:06 GMT
[2] United States Unit Labor Costs below forecasts (1.3%) in 2Q: Actual (1.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-unit-labor-costs-below-forecasts-13-in-2q-actual-12-202609031230 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:30:59 GMT
[3] Canada Exports declined to $76.14B in July from previous $77.49B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-exports-declined-to-7614b-in-july-from-previous-7749b-202609031230 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:30:54 GMT
[4] Canada Imports rose from previous $73.63B to $75.37B in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-imports-rose-from-previous-7363b-to-7537b-in-july-202609031230 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:30:51 GMT
[5] Canada International Merchandise Trade came in at $0.77B, below expectations ($3.6B) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-international-merchandise-trade-came-in-at-077b-below-expectations-36b-in-july-202609031230 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:30:46 GMT
[6] United States Continuing Jobless Claims climbed from previous 1.778M to 1.779M in August 21 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-continuing-jobless-claims-climbed-from-previous-1778m-to-1779m-in-august-21-202609031230 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:30:38 GMT
[7] United States Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-88.6B, above expectations ($-90B) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-goods-and-services-trade-balance-came-in-at-886b-above-expectations-90b-in-july-202609031230 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:30:29 GMT
[8] United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 207.25K (August 28) vs 205.5K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-4-week-average-20725k-august-28-vs-2055k-202609031230 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:30:03 GMT
[9] United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 206K, above forecasts (205K) in August 28 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-came-in-at-206k-above-forecasts-205k-in-august-28-202609031230 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:30:03 GMT
[10] Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) registered at 1% above expectations (0.7%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-labor-productivity-qoq-registered-at-1-above-expectations-07-in-2q-202609031230 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:30:02 GMT
[11] Ripple Price Forecast: XRP rises as 200-day EMA support holds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-rises-as-200-day-ema-support-holds-202609031230 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:30:00 GMT
[12] Euro: ECB succession and data support resilience - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-succession-and-data-support-resilience-bny-202609031217 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:17:14 GMT
[13] Returning to normalcy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/returning-to-normalcy-202609031211 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:11:02 GMT
[14] Pound Sterling falls to one-month low against surging Japanese Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-falls-to-one-month-low-against-surging-japanese-yen-202609031204 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:04:41 GMT
[15] Mexico Consumer Confidence rose from previous 45.1 to 46.6 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-consumer-confidence-rose-from-previous-451-to-466-in-august-202609031200 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:00:49 GMT
[16] Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a: 46.1 (August) vs 45 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-consumer-confidence-sa-461-august-vs-45-202609031200 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:00:49 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran Energy Exchange ready to host export oil trades, CEO says Time: 2026-09-03T12:24:59.874Z
[2] Trump says 18 killed in Iran conflict, corrects Lutnick Time: 2026-09-03T12:15:40.372Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 187 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 13.3% of normal
- Throughput: 12.4% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 465
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS145 (+190% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost