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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-03 06:01:41 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 62% (5 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT DIX 0.465 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +6.1B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 51% β€” mixed participation
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -4.4% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.75 normal, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.46 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.67 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 24 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, correlations, and inflation leaning bullish, but dark pool and energy haven't signed on yet β€” rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.465; GEX positive at 6.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $764.63 | 50 SMA $754.71 | 200 SMA $710.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.81
  • QQQ: $708.42 | 50 SMA $710.98 | 200 SMA $656.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.19
  • IWM: $293.77 | 50 SMA $297.13 | 200 SMA $271.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.09
  • VIX: 15.20 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.796%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $764.63 38.41 26.9 $755.81 Neutral 0.88
QQQ $708.42 38.20 38.0 $707.19 Neutral 0.86
IWM $293.77 28.88 17.8 $293.09 Neutral 1.26

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.20 59.89 17.6 $11.07 Neutral 0.98
TNX 47.96 60.63 31.8 - - -
GLD $402.71 45.07 41.8 $399.42 Neutral 0.81
DXY 99.56 41.16 23.5 - - -
SLV $59.05 46.71 14.2 $42.00 Neutral 1.32

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.465
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.06B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Financials 58.8% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 54.5% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.1% 0/0
Industrials 32.8% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $90.63 (5d: +8.5%)
  • Brent Crude: $95.23 | Spread: $4.60
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.6600/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.41/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $65.10
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.75

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.748 normal
SPY / DXY -0.167 normal
SPY / TNX -0.34 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.46 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.71
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,949,218.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,440,892.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $488.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $764.63)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.80%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.56
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,064B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,701B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,582 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bullish trend β€” historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.15 (vs 20d avg 129.58, +2.0Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.465, GEX +6.1B, HY OAS 2.65%, breadth 51%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 37 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.53%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP show faint recovery signals amid mixed ETF flows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-show-faint-recovery-signals-amid-mixed-etf-flows-202609031000 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:00:00 GMT

[2] On FX markets, the Yen took center stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/on-fx-markets-the-yen-took-center-stage-202609030956 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:56:22 GMT

[3] GBP/USD at two-week low: Risk aversion takes hold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gbp-usd-at-two-week-low-risk-aversion-takes-hold-202609030948 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:48:13 GMT

[4] Forex trading USD/JPY in sudden move - CAD employment and NFPs in focus [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/forex-trading-usd-jpy-in-sudden-move-cad-employment-and-nfps-in-focus-video-202609030944 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:44:56 GMT

[5] Yen remains strong with no confirmation of intervention from Japan or US yet URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yen-remains-strong-with-no-confirmation-of-intervention-from-japan-or-us-yet-202609030943 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:43:15 GMT

[6] Canadian Dollar: BoC inflation focus and valuation divergence - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-boc-inflation-focus-and-valuation-divergence-mufg-202609030934 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:34:15 GMT

[7] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609030933 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:33:00 GMT

[8] United States Challenger Job Cuts: 52.881K (August) vs 33.429K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-challenger-job-cuts-52881k-august-vs-33429k-202609030930 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:30:00 GMT

[9] Japan's Mimura keeps threat of FX intervention alive URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-mimura-keeps-threat-of-fx-intervention-alive-202609030926 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:26:04 GMT

[10] Ethereum shows mild weakness as derivatives interest, US sentiment weakens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-shows-mild-weakness-as-derivatives-interest-us-sentiment-weakens-202609030921 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:21:58 GMT

[11] Polish Zloty: NBP language turns cautious after FX pressure - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-nbp-language-turns-cautious-after-fx-pressure-commerzbank-202609030918 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:18:19 GMT

[12] Japanese Yen strengthens following hawkish BoJ comments URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-strengthens-following-hawkish-boj-comments-202609030906 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:06:51 GMT

[13] Australian Dollar: Pullback eases with upside focus on 0.7200 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-pullback-eases-with-upside-focus-on-07200-against-us-dollar-uob-202609030906 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:06:50 GMT

[14] Spain 5-y Bond Auction up to 3.255% from previous 3.005% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-5-y-bond-auction-up-to-3255-from-previous-3005-202609030903 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:03:22 GMT

[15] Spain 3-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.867% to 3.079% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-3-y-bond-auction-climbed-from-previous-2867-to-3079-202609030903 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:03:15 GMT

[16] France 10-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 3.9% to 4.23% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-10-y-bond-auction-climbed-from-previous-39-to-423-202609030903 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:03:11 GMT

[17] JPY strengthens across the board URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/jpy-strengthens-across-the-board-202609030902 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:02:06 GMT

[18] Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to 5.8% in July from previous 4.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-producer-price-index-yoy-increased-to-58-in-july-from-previous-46-202609030900 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:00:02 GMT

[19] Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (1.2%) in July: Actual (1.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-producer-price-index-mom-above-forecasts-12-in-july-actual-16-202609030900 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:00:02 GMT

[20] ISM Services PMI Preview: US service sector expected to expand in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-services-pmi-preview-us-service-sector-expected-to-expand-in-august-202609030900 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:00:00 GMT

[21] Europe's search for a new growth model URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/europes-search-for-a-new-growth-model-202609030855 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:55:19 GMT

[22] Japanese Yen: Intervention jitters linger - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-jitters-linger-ing-202609030851 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:51:46 GMT

[23] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles to extend upside above $66.25, NFP data awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-struggles-to-extend-upside-above-6625-nfp-data-awaited-202609030846 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:46:50 GMT

[24] Dow Jones futures gain as oil prices, US yields ease URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-gain-as-oil-prices-us-yields-ease-202609030839 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:39:05 GMT

[25] US Dollar: Hedging impulse fades as holdings stabilize - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-hedging-impulse-fades-as-holdings-stabilize-bny-202609030834 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:34:20 GMT

[26] United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI below forecasts (52.8) in August: Actual (52.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-services-pmi-below-forecasts-528-in-august-actual-525-202609030830 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:30:21 GMT

[27] United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI meets forecasts (52.5) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-composite-pmi-meets-forecasts-525-in-august-202609030830 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:30:17 GMT

[28] Forex Today: Japanese Yen extends rally, markets await US data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-japanese-yen-extends-rally-markets-await-us-data-202609030827 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:27:28 GMT

[29] Versus Trade, Indy Trader and Andromeda hold trading education events across Malaysia and Thailand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/versus-trade-indy-trader-and-andromeda-hold-trading-education-events-across-malaysia-and-thailand-202609030827 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:27:15 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Watch: Long fuel lines seen in Mashhad Time: 2026-09-03T09:10:26.620Z

[2] Video appears to show Missile launcher in Mashhad Time: 2026-09-03T09:09:43.681Z

[3] Jordan condemns renewed Iranian attacks on Kuwait Time: 2026-09-03T09:08:31.695Z

[4] Iran parliament security chief says Hormuz will not reopen 'without Tehran's will' Time: 2026-09-03T08:36:45.874Z

[5] Iran says it hit US bases in Kuwait, UAE with missiles and drones Time: 2026-09-03T08:20:16.404Z

[6] Qatar condemns renewed Iranian attacks on Kuwait Time: 2026-09-03T08:17:48.269Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-07-01, 64 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 13 of 60 normal daily β€” 21.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 11.7% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 465
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 60.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost