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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-03 04:01:23 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 62% (5 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT DIX 0.465 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +6.1B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 51% β€” mixed participation
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -4.4% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.75 normal, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.46 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.67 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 24 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, correlations, and inflation leaning bullish, but dark pool and energy haven't signed on yet β€” rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.465; GEX positive at 6.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $764.63 | 50 SMA $754.71 | 200 SMA $710.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.81
  • QQQ: $708.42 | 50 SMA $710.98 | 200 SMA $656.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.19
  • IWM: $293.77 | 50 SMA $297.13 | 200 SMA $271.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.09
  • VIX: 15.20 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.796%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $764.63 38.41 26.9 $755.81 Neutral 0.88
QQQ $708.42 38.20 38.0 $707.19 Neutral 0.86
IWM $293.77 28.88 17.8 $293.09 Neutral 1.26

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.20 59.89 17.6 $11.07 Neutral 0.98
TNX 47.96 60.63 31.8 - - -
GLD $402.71 45.07 41.8 $399.42 Neutral 0.81
DXY 99.56 41.16 23.5 - - -
SLV $59.05 46.71 14.2 $42.00 Neutral 1.32

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.465
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.06B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Financials 58.8% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 54.5% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.1% 0/0
Industrials 32.8% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $90.63 (5d: +8.5%)
  • Brent Crude: $95.23 | Spread: $4.60
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.6600/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.41/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $65.10
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.75

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.748 normal
SPY / DXY -0.167 normal
SPY / TNX -0.34 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.46 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.71
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,949,218.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,440,892.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $488.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $764.63)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.80%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.56
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,064B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,701B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,680 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bullish trend β€” historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.15 (vs 20d avg 129.58, +2.0Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.465, GEX +6.1B, HY OAS 2.65%, breadth 51%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 37 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.53%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] Eurozone HCOB Services PMI registered at 51.6, below expectations (51.7) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-services-pmi-registered-at-516-below-expectations-517-in-august-202609030800 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:00:05 GMT

[2] Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 52 below forecasts (52.1) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-composite-pmi-came-in-at-52-below-forecasts-521-in-august-202609030800 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:00:05 GMT

[3] British Pound gains capped as fiscal, geopolitical risks persist URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-gains-capped-as-fiscal-geopolitical-risks-persist-202609030759 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:59:20 GMT

[4] BoJ mulls hiking interest rates to 1.25% in September meeting - Bloomberg URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boj-mulls-hiking-interest-rates-to-125-in-september-meeting-bloomberg-202609030756 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:56:18 GMT

[5] British Pound: Downside seen limited near 1.3465 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-downside-seen-limited-near-13465-against-us-dollar-uob-202609030755 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:55:09 GMT

[6] Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.7 above expectations (48.5) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-services-pmi-registered-at-497-above-expectations-485-in-august-202609030755 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:55:07 GMT

[7] Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 51.8 above expectations (51) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-composite-pmi-registered-at-518-above-expectations-51-in-august-202609030755 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:55:06 GMT

[8] WTI remains broadly firm around $90 as oil shipments through Hormuz remain restricted URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-remains-broadly-firm-around-90-as-oil-shipments-through-hormuz-remain-restricted-202609030750 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:50:44 GMT

[9] France HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (48.8) in August: Actual (48.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-composite-pmi-below-forecasts-488-in-august-actual-485-202609030750 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:50:09 GMT

[10] France HCOB Services PMI came in at 48, below expectations (48.4) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-services-pmi-came-in-at-48-below-expectations-484-in-august-202609030750 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:50:08 GMT

[11] Ether, XRP ETF inflow streaks end as Bitcoin funds rebound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ether-xrp-etf-inflow-streaks-end-as-bitcoin-funds-rebound-202609030749 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:49:03 GMT

[12] Uniswap Price Forecast: UNI rally stretches thin amid waning retail demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/uniswap-price-forecast-uni-rally-stretches-thin-amid-waning-retail-demand-202609030749 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:49:02 GMT

[13] Italy HCOB Services PMI registered at 55.2 above expectations (53.3) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-hcob-services-pmi-registered-at-552-above-expectations-533-in-august-202609030745 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:45:07 GMT

[14] Euro: Trading near 1.16 against US Dollar as yields rise - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-trading-near-116-against-us-dollar-as-yields-rise-danske-bank-202609030743 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:43:16 GMT

[15] US Dollar: Upside risks persist - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-upside-risks-persist-ing-202609030735 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:35:05 GMT

[16] JPY pairs plunge as US yields hit 4.80, Gold and Silver bounce and Dollar turns lower [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/jpy-pairs-plunge-as-us-yields-hit-480-gold-and-silver-bounce-and-dollar-turns-lower-video-202609030735 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:35:04 GMT

[17] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Falls to near 1.3850 after breaking below nine-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-falls-to-near-13850-after-breaking-below-nine-day-ema-202609030731 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:31:21 GMT

[18] Dogecoin becomes only losing bet for Japan-listed firm as it sells altcoins for Bitcoin URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-becomes-only-losing-bet-for-japan-listed-firm-as-it-sells-altcoins-for-bitcoin-202609030727 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:27:59 GMT

[19] Equities: Stabilise with lower yields - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-stabilise-with-lower-yields-deutsche-bank-202609030721 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:21:39 GMT

[20] Swiss Franc bounces up from monthly lows as GDP, inflation data beat expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-bounces-up-from-monthly-lows-as-gdp-inflation-data-beat-expectations-202609030717 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:17:23 GMT

[21] Spain HCOB Services PMI registered at 57.8, below expectations (59) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-hcob-services-pmi-registered-at-578-below-expectations-59-in-august-202609030715 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:15:04 GMT

[22] Dip-buyers step up and the Yen jolts markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dip-buyers-step-up-and-the-yen-jolts-markets-202609030705 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:05:22 GMT

[23] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Posts mild gains near 0.5850 but bearish momentum signals capped upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-posts-mild-gains-near-05850-but-bearish-momentum-signals-capped-upside-202609030703 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:03:40 GMT

[24] Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 31.51%, below expectations (31.62%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-consumer-price-index-yoy-registered-at-3151-below-expectations-3162-in-august-202609030701 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:01:29 GMT

[25] Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (1.93%) in August: Actual (1.84%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-consumer-price-index-mom-below-expectations-193-in-august-actual-184-202609030701 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:01:25 GMT

[26] Turkey Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to 27.95% in August from previous 27.83% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-producer-price-index-yoy-increased-to-2795-in-august-from-previous-2783-202609030701 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:01:11 GMT

[27] Turkey Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to 2.57% in August from previous 1.52% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-producer-price-index-mom-increased-to-257-in-august-from-previous-152-202609030701 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:01:07 GMT

[28] Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above forecasts (1.6%) in 2Q: Actual (1.9%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-gross-domestic-product-qoq-above-forecasts-16-in-2q-actual-19-202609030700 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:00:49 GMT

[29] Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) rose from previous 0.5% to 2.8% in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-gross-domestic-product-yoy-rose-from-previous-05-to-28-in-2q-202609030700 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:00:46 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (9):

[1] Iran warned US against Israeli offensive on strategic south Lebanon ridge - Reuters Time: 2026-09-03T07:55:14.375Z

[2] Iran earned over $1 billion in oil revenue in 11 days - IRGC media Time: 2026-09-03T07:40:08.753Z

[3] China urges US to lift Iran-related sanctions on Chinese firms, citizens Time: 2026-09-03T07:38:04.999Z

[4] Kuwait reserves right to respond after renewed Iranian attacks Time: 2026-09-03T07:35:42.264Z

[5] Iran lawmaker says US 'desperate and confused' in confrontation with Tehran Time: 2026-09-03T07:32:44.278Z

[6] Iran upholds 12-year sentence, property seizure for businessman over protests Time: 2026-09-03T07:03:23.473Z

[7] IRGC blames CENTCOM for strike on wedding in southern Iran Time: 2026-09-03T06:53:17.694Z

[8] UAE, US presidents discuss Middle East developments by phone Time: 2026-09-03T06:07:27.381Z

[9] Iran's deputy UN ambassador accuses US of killing four at wedding Time: 2026-09-03T05:52:10.883Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-07-01, 64 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β€” 7.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 11.9% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 250
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 43.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS155 (+210% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost