Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-03 02:01:27 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 62% (5 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.465 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -4.4% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.75 normal, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.46 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.67 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, correlations, and inflation leaning bullish, but dark pool and energy haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.465; GEX positive at 6.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $764.63 | 50 SMA $754.71 | 200 SMA $710.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.81
- QQQ: $708.42 | 50 SMA $710.98 | 200 SMA $656.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.19
- IWM: $293.77 | 50 SMA $297.13 | 200 SMA $271.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.09
- VIX: 15.20 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.796%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.63 | 38.41 | 26.9 | $755.81 | Neutral | 0.88 |
| QQQ | $708.42 | 38.20 | 38.0 | $707.19 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| IWM | $293.77 | 28.88 | 17.8 | $293.09 | Neutral | 1.26 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.20 | 59.89 | 17.6 | $11.07 | Neutral | 0.98 |
| TNX | 47.96 | 60.63 | 31.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.71 | 45.07 | 41.8 | $399.42 | Neutral | 0.81 |
| DXY | 99.56 | 41.16 | 23.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.05 | 46.71 | 14.2 | $42.00 | Neutral | 1.32 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.465
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.06B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $90.63 (5d: +8.5%)
- Brent Crude: $95.23 | Spread: $4.60
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.41/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.10
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.75
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.748 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.167 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.34 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.46 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.71
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,949,218.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,440,892.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $488.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $767 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $764.63)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.80%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.56
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,064B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,701B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,735 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bullish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.15 (vs 20d avg 129.58, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.465, GEX +6.1B, HY OAS 2.65%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 37 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.53%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (23):
[1] Russia S&P Global Services PMI climbed from previous 49 to 51.3 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-sp-global-services-pmi-climbed-from-previous-49-to-513-in-august-202609030600 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 06:00:09 GMT
[2] Growth, inflation and unemployment expected to converge around structural levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/growth-inflation-and-unemployment-expected-to-converge-around-structural-levels-202609030555 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:55:09 GMT
[3] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Ripple, Stellar & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 03 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-ripple-stellar-bitcoin-asian-wrap-03-september-202609030552 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:52:24 GMT
[4] The recent respite regarding US/Iran violence and pullback in gov't bond yields have made Thurs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-recent-respite-regarding-us-iran-violence-and-pullback-in-govt-bond-yields-have-made-thurs-202609030550 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:50:17 GMT
[5] Top Altcoins Price Prediction: Ripple, Cardano, Solana - Bulls defend key support levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-altcoins-price-prediction-ripple-cardano-solana-bulls-defend-key-support-levels-202609030543 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:43:59 GMT
[6] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Turns sticky to 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-turns-sticky-to-20-day-ema-202609030542 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:42:00 GMT
[7] Indian Rupee hits fresh two-month high against US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-hits-fresh-two-month-high-against-us-dollar-202609030522 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:22:14 GMT
[8] Indonesian Rupiah strengthens as US Dollar declines on potential Yen intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-strengthens-as-us-dollar-declines-on-potential-yen-intervention-202609030516 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:16:15 GMT
[9] United States Dollar Index weakens below 99.50 as yields ease URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-weakens-below-9950-as-yields-ease-202609030510 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:10:26 GMT
[10] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609030505 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:05:02 GMT
[11] India HSBC Services PMI below expectations (54.5) in August: Actual (54.1) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-services-pmi-below-expectations-545-in-august-actual-541-202609030500 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:00:34 GMT
[12] India HSBC Composite PMI came in at 54.3 below forecasts (54.6) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-composite-pmi-came-in-at-543-below-forecasts-546-in-august-202609030500 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:00:27 GMT
[13] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609030500 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 05:00:20 GMT
[14] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609030455 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 04:55:19 GMT
[15] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609030445 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 04:45:15 GMT
[16] WTI Price Forecast: Consolidates above $89.00; bullish bias remains amid Iran risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-consolidates-above-8900-bullish-bias-remains-amid-iran-risks-202609030440 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 04:40:21 GMT
[17] India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609030435 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 04:35:06 GMT
[18] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Falls to near 183.00 near symmetrical triangle bottom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-falls-to-near-18300-near-symmetrical-triangle-bottom-202609030430 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 04:30:44 GMT
[19] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609030430 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 04:30:07 GMT
[20] Nordic outlook - New sources of growth URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/nordic-outlook-new-sources-of-growth-202609030423 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 04:23:53 GMT
[21] Morning briefing: EUR/USD could trade within 1.1550-1.1650 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-eur-usd-could-trade-within-11550-11650-202609030421 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 04:21:02 GMT
[22] Elliott Wave outlook: Gold anticipates minimum three wave rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/elliott-wave-outlook-gold-anticipates-minimum-three-wave-rally-202609030420 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 04:20:20 GMT
[23] British Pound drops to three-week low as hawkish BoJ and suspected intervention boost Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-drops-to-three-week-low-as-hawkish-boj-and-suspected-intervention-boost-yen-202609030407 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 04:07:25 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Six commodity vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz - Reuters Time: 2026-09-03T04:55:21.838Z
[2] Hardline newspaper urges Iran's forces to cut Persian Gulf internet cables Time: 2026-09-03T04:35:47.874Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 187 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 12.0% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 465
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS165 (+230% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost