Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-02 08:01:35 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -4.3% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.23 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.58 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 77/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 4.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $761.56 | 50 SMA $754.36 | 200 SMA $710.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.83
- QQQ: $707.53 | 50 SMA $711.59 | 200 SMA $655.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.99
- IWM: $290.55 | 50 SMA $297.28 | 200 SMA $271.56 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.51
- VIX: 16.34 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.796%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $761.56 | 45.91 | 32.2 | $755.83 | Bearish | 2.76 |
| QQQ | $707.53 | 48.68 | 38.8 | $708.99 | Bearish | 3.99 |
| IWM | $290.55 | 36.97 | 23.1 | $297.51 | Bearish | 6.99 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.34 | 47.85 | 11.2 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| TNX | 47.96 | 57.40 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $397.17 | 54.97 | 37.0 | $344.62 | Bearish | 1.78 |
| DXY | 99.67 | 47.02 | 24.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.97 | 55.05 | 12.1 | $39.00 | Neutral | 1.19 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.58B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $90.68 (5d: +10.3%)
- Brent Crude: $95.22 | Spread: $4.54
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.74/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.722 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.226 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.354 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.476 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,074,508.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,455,069.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $763 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $761.56)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.80%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.67
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,856B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,023B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,743 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.0 (vs 20d avg 128.27, +2.1Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $63.74/bbl (vs 20d avg 58.05, +2.0Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +4.6B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~292h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (22):
[1] Brazil Industrial Output (YoY): -0.5% (July) vs previous 1.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-industrial-output-yoy-05-july-vs-previous-17-202609021200 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:00:22 GMT
[2] Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) increased to 0.2% in July from previous -1.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-industrial-output-mom-increased-to-02-in-july-from-previous-18-202609021200 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:00:01 GMT
[3] Euro: Nagel backs September hike path - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-nagel-backs-september-hike-path-bny-202609021155 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:55:29 GMT
[4] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD likely fall further towards 1.3420 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-likely-fall-further-towards-13420-202609021152 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:52:11 GMT
[5] Japanese Yen rebounds against US Dollar as intervention risks resurface URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-rebounds-against-us-dollar-as-intervention-risks-resurface-202609021147 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:47:15 GMT
[6] US Dollar: Fed expectations support gains - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-expectations-support-gains-bbh-202609021142 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:42:56 GMT
[7] Bitcoin ETFs notch best month of 2026 as BTC gains 25% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-etfs-notch-best-month-of-2026-as-btc-gains-25-in-august-202609021140 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:40:01 GMT
[8] Bond markets still in focus, as Iran war heats up URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bond-markets-still-in-focus-as-iran-war-heats-up-202609021137 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:37:38 GMT
[9] US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: Canada treated US 'disrespectfully' URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-commerce-secretary-lutnick-canada-treated-the-us-disrespectfully-202609021130 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:30:07 GMT
[10] Gold: Oil-driven rate repricing weighs on bullion - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-oil-driven-rate-repricing-weighs-on-bullion-ing-202609021117 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:17:25 GMT
[11] United States Dollar Index rises to near 99.85 ahead of US ADP Employment data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-rises-to-near-9985-ahead-of-us-adp-employment-data-202609021116 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:16:17 GMT
[12] Gold declines as US-Iran escalation drives Oil prices, global bond yields higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-as-us-iran-escalation-drives-oil-prices-global-bond-yields-higher-202609021114 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:14:59 GMT
[13] United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous -1% to 0.8% in August 28 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-climbed-from-previous-1-to-08-in-august-28-202609021100 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:00:01 GMT
[14] 1.3990: Why the Canadian Dollar is sliding toward the resistance zone that could decide the next move URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/13990-why-the-canadian-dollar-is-sliding-toward-the-resistance-zone-that-could-decide-the-next-move-202609021058 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 10:58:07 GMT
[15] 0.8150: Swiss Franc hits monthly lows as Fed hiking bets, risk aversion buoy US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/08150-swiss-franc-hits-monthly-lows-as-fed-hiking-bets-risk-aversion-buoy-us-dollar-202609021048 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 10:48:47 GMT
[16] US attacks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-attacks-202609021032 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 10:32:56 GMT
[17] USD/JPY at highest level since July: Carry trade weighs on the Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-at-highest-level-since-july-carry-trade-weighs-on-the-yen-202609021027 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 10:27:31 GMT
[18] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP edge lower as renewed US-Iran tensions weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-edge-lower-as-renewed-us-iran-tensions-weigh-202609021014 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 10:14:01 GMT
[19] Global bond yields continue to rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/global-bond-yields-continue-to-rise-202609021011 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 10:11:37 GMT
[20] RBNZ raises rates: Why is the New Zealand Dollar plunging? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnz-raises-rates-why-is-the-new-zealand-dollar-plunging-202609021007 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 10:07:39 GMT
[21] Canadian Dollar: Scope to strengthen against US Dollar - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-scope-to-strengthen-against-us-dollar-societe-generale-202609021005 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 10:05:53 GMT
[22] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD tests $4,300 amid Fed tightening hopes, geopolitical tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-tests-4-300-amid-fed-tightening-hopes-geopolitical-tensions-202609021005 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 10:05:32 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (10):
[1] Bessent warns countries and companies to 'stay away' from Iran Time: 2026-09-02T11:47:42.465Z
[2] Iran security chief says new strategy will 'shatter' US foundations Time: 2026-09-02T11:25:23.341Z
[3] US may intensify Iran attacks after midterm elections - Reuters Time: 2026-09-02T11:23:26.704Z
[4] From family homes to drug dens: Middle-aged women are Iran's new face of poverty Time: 2026-09-02T11:21:10.085Z
[5] Wounded January protester killed before his family, sources say Time: 2026-09-02T11:18:50.058Z
[6] Saudi Arabia condemns Iran over deadly attack on tanker Sidr Time: 2026-09-02T11:15:06.984Z
[7] Iranian hackers targeted US infrastructure in recent weeks - NBC News Time: 2026-09-02T10:22:05.406Z
[8] Video: US strike hits communications tower in Sirik Time: 2026-09-02T10:21:22.240Z
[9] Russia secretly assists Iran with supersonic cruise missiles - FT Time: 2026-09-02T10:20:11.582Z
[10] Every time Iran talks about de-escalation, something happens in Hormuz Time: 2026-09-02T10:19:01.088Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 186 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 14.7% of normal
- Throughput: 12.0% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 135
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost