Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-02 08:31:39 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -2.8% slowing Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.23 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.69 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 79/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 4.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ELAN, PFE
- Shorts: BBY, WTW
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=195) | 3d 36% (n=195) | 5d 34% (n=195)
- Screener Board Record: 304 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 162 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.27 | 50 SMA $754.71 | 200 SMA $710.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $761.85
- QQQ: $707.10 | 50 SMA $710.98 | 200 SMA $656.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.27
- IWM: $291.13 | 50 SMA $297.13 | 200 SMA $271.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.45
- VIX: 16.13 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.780%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.27 | 38.41 | 26.9 | $761.85 | Neutral | 1.34 |
| QQQ | $707.10 | 38.20 | 38.0 | $707.27 | Neutral | 1.23 |
| IWM | $291.13 | 28.88 | 17.8 | $297.45 | Bearish | 3.67 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.13 | 59.89 | 17.6 | $11.07 | Neutral | 0.89 |
| TNX | 47.80 | 60.63 | 31.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $397.46 | 45.07 | 41.8 | $399.30 | Neutral | 1.31 |
| DXY | 99.70 | 43.81 | 23.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.28 | 46.71 | 14.2 | $39.00 | Neutral | 0.99 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.58B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $89.42 (5d: +7.0%)
- Brent Crude: $94.00 | Spread: $4.58
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.4300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.80/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.722 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.226 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.354 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.476 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $763 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $762.27)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.70
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,856B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,023B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,937 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.0 (vs 20d avg 128.27, +2.1Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +4.6B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~292h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 36 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] XRP Price Forecast: XRP extends sell-off as bears regain control despite ETF inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-price-forecast-xrp-extends-sell-off-as-bears-regain-control-despite-etf-inflows-202609021230 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:30:00 GMT
[2] Japanese Yen: Fed hawkishness offsets BoJ talk - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-fed-hawkishness-offsets-boj-talk-ing-202609021224 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:24:21 GMT
[3] Euro outperforms Pound Sterling as ECB prepares for another rate hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-outperforms-pound-sterling-as-ecb-prepares-for-another-rate-hike-202609021215 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:15:41 GMT
[4] Canadian Dollar: US tensions overshadow BoC stance - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-us-tensions-overshadow-boc-stance-commerzbank-202609021215 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:15:03 GMT
[5] United States ADP Employment Change came in at 38K, below expectations (47K) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-adp-employment-change-came-in-at-38k-below-expectations-47k-in-august-202609021215 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:15:01 GMT
[6] A Fed rate increase would be a mistake, some observers say as Bitcoin, Gold, stocks fall URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/a-fed-rate-increase-would-be-a-mistake-some-observers-say-as-bitcoin-gold-stocks-fall-202609021210 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:10:57 GMT
[7] Federal Reserve: Election-year hikes and long-end rates risks - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-election-year-hikes-and-long-end-rates-risks-td-securities-202609021205 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:05:16 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iranian rial hits new low at 2.2 million per dollar Time: 2026-09-02T12:12:31.335Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 186 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 14.7% of normal
- Throughput: 12.0% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 135
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost