Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-02 06:01:20 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -4.3% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.23 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.58 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 77/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 4.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $761.56 | 50 SMA $754.36 | 200 SMA $710.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.83
- QQQ: $707.53 | 50 SMA $711.59 | 200 SMA $655.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.99
- IWM: $290.55 | 50 SMA $297.28 | 200 SMA $271.56 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.51
- VIX: 16.34 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.796%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $761.56 | 45.91 | 32.2 | $755.83 | Bearish | 2.76 |
| QQQ | $707.53 | 48.68 | 38.8 | $708.99 | Bearish | 3.99 |
| IWM | $290.55 | 36.97 | 23.1 | $297.51 | Bearish | 6.99 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.34 | 47.85 | 11.2 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| TNX | 47.96 | 57.40 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $397.17 | 54.97 | 37.0 | $344.62 | Bearish | 1.78 |
| DXY | 99.67 | 47.02 | 24.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.97 | 55.05 | 12.1 | $39.00 | Neutral | 1.19 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.58B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $90.68 (5d: +10.3%)
- Brent Crude: $95.22 | Spread: $4.54
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.74/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.722 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.226 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.354 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.476 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,074,508.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,455,069.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $761.56)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.80%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.67
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,856B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,023B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,700 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.0 (vs 20d avg 128.27, +2.1Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $63.74/bbl (vs 20d avg 58.05, +2.0Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +4.6B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~292h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (28):
[1] New Zealand Dollar: Gradual RBNZ path weighs on kiwi - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-gradual-rbnz-path-weighs-on-kiwi-mufg-202609020951 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:51:25 GMT
[2] BoC set to keep interest rates steady despite sticky inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boc-set-to-keep-interest-rates-steady-despite-sticky-inflation-202609020945 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:45:00 GMT
[3] India's GDP surged to 7.8% and growth forecasts are climbing: Why the Reserve Bank of India now faces 75bp of hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indias-gdp-surged-to-78-and-growth-forecasts-are-climbing-why-the-reserve-bank-of-india-now-faces-75bp-of-hikes-202609020939 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:39:17 GMT
[4] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609020930 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:30:29 GMT
[5] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC faces pressure as ETF outflows, Fed rate-hike bets weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-faces-pressure-as-etf-outflows-fed-rate-hike-bets-weigh-202609020928 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:28:54 GMT
[6] Brent: Higher inflation risks support prices - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-higher-inflation-risks-support-prices-ocbc-202609020928 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:28:32 GMT
[7] BTC/USD - Downside risks mount as market signals point to near-term reversal [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/btc-usd-downside-risks-mount-as-market-signals-point-to-near-term-reversal-video-202609020926 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:26:18 GMT
[8] ECB preview: How to hike rates without creating more market turmoil URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ecb-preview-how-to-hike-rates-without-creating-more-market-turmoil-202609020921 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:21:54 GMT
[9] Euro tests two-week lows as risk aversion, Fed tightening bets buoy the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-tests-two-week-lows-as-risk-aversion-fed-tightening-bets-buoy-the-us-dollar-202609020921 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:21:27 GMT
[10] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Likely fall further towards 1.3420 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-likely-fall-further-towards-13420-202609020917 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:17:17 GMT
[11] USD/JPY price forecast: US Dollar/Japanese Yen faces rejection at 0.236 arc URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-price-forecast-us-dollar-japanese-yen-faces-rejection-at-0236-arc-202609020910 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:10:01 GMT
[12] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Eyes 50-day EMA after breaking above confluence around 1.3900 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-eyes-50-day-ema-after-breaking-above-confluence-around-13900-202609020903 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:03:06 GMT
[13] easyMarkets expands commodity offering with 24/7 Gold, Silver and Oil trading URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/easymarkets-expands-commodity-offering-with-24-7-gold-silver-and-oil-trading-202609020849 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:49:20 GMT
[14] Canadian Dollar: BoC hold leaves risk of further losses against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-boc-hold-leaves-risk-of-further-losses-against-us-dollar-ing-202609020848 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:48:16 GMT
[15] Your trade history still isn't telling you the truth about your worst month URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/your-trade-history-still-isnt-telling-you-the-truth-about-your-worst-month-202609020844 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:44:56 GMT
[16] WTI slips below $89.00 despite US-Iran escalation threatening Strait of Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-slips-below-8900-despite-us-iran-escalation-threatening-strait-of-hormuz-202609020841 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:41:53 GMT
[17] EUR/USD price outlook: Euro/US Dollar navigating between arc levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-price-outlook-euro-us-dollar-navigating-between-arc-levels-202609020839 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:39:09 GMT
[18] Australian Dollar extends decline on firm Fed interest rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-extends-decline-on-firm-fed-interest-rate-hike-bets-202609020836 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:36:51 GMT
[19] Japanese Yen: Yen supported by BoJ hike pricing - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-yen-supported-by-boj-hike-pricing-mufg-202609020835 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:35:02 GMT
[20] Warsh comments shift dial on Fed hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/warsh-comments-shift-dial-on-fed-hikes-202609020834 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:34:44 GMT
[21] ECB September rate hike all but guaranteed as Gas prices and inflation climb URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ecb-september-rate-hike-all-but-guaranteed-as-gas-prices-and-inflation-climb-202609020829 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:29:08 GMT
[22] Dow Jones futures steady amid bond selloff, rising geopolitical tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-steady-amid-bond-selloff-rising-geopolitical-tensions-202609020828 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:28:12 GMT
[23] Euro: ECB guidance may trigger asymmetric downside risks - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-guidance-may-trigger-asymmetric-downside-risks-commerzbank-202609020820 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:20:07 GMT
[24] Euro advances against Canadian Dollar amid lower oil prices, ECB rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-advances-against-canadian-dollar-amid-lower-oil-prices-ecb-rate-hike-bets-202609020815 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:15:23 GMT
[25] ADP Employment Report is expected to show a moderate increase in private payrolls in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/adp-employment-report-is-expected-to-show-a-moderate-increase-in-private-payrolls-in-august-202609020815 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:15:00 GMT
[26] Gilt yield increases raise the risk of autumn tax hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gilt-yield-increases-raise-the-risk-of-autumn-tax-hikes-202609020805 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:05:26 GMT
[27] US Dollar: Fed story supports renewed strength - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-story-supports-renewed-strength-ing-202609020801 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:01:10 GMT
[28] Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 5.8% to 7.8% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-producer-price-index-yoy-climbed-from-previous-58-to-78-in-july-202609020801 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:01:03 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] Iranians are victims of authorities' choices, UN Security Council president says Time: 2026-09-02T09:17:28.766Z
[2] Watch: Moment of US strike on communications tower in Sirik Time: 2026-09-02T09:15:46.936Z
[3] Iran will punish countries assisting US attacks, deputy speaker says Time: 2026-09-02T09:13:42.451Z
[4] Iran denies China set conditions for Ghalibaf's Beijing visit Time: 2026-09-02T08:35:40.456Z
[BREAKING] [5] IRGC says two oil tankers hit mines in Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-09-02T08:17:12.303Z
[6] Two Filipino sailors killed in Hormuz security incident, Bahri says Time: 2026-09-02T08:15:34.928Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 186 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 437
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS395 (+690% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost