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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-02 04:01:35 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +4.6B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 51% β€” mixed participation
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -4.3% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.23 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.58 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 24 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β€” 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 77/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 4.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $761.56 | 50 SMA $754.36 | 200 SMA $710.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.83
  • QQQ: $707.53 | 50 SMA $711.59 | 200 SMA $655.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.99
  • IWM: $290.55 | 50 SMA $297.28 | 200 SMA $271.56 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.51
  • VIX: 16.34 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.796%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $761.56 45.91 32.2 $755.83 Bearish 2.76
QQQ $707.53 48.68 38.8 $708.99 Bearish 3.99
IWM $290.55 36.97 23.1 $297.51 Bearish 6.99

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 16.34 47.85 11.2 $11.06 Neutral 1.06
TNX 47.96 57.40 36.7 - - -
GLD $397.17 54.97 37.0 $344.62 Bearish 1.78
DXY 99.67 47.02 24.1 - - -
SLV $57.97 55.05 12.1 $39.00 Neutral 1.19

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.58B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Financials 58.8% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 54.5% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.1% 0/0
Industrials 32.8% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $90.68 (5d: +10.3%)
  • Brent Crude: $95.22 | Spread: $4.54
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.7100/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.74/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.722 normal
SPY / DXY -0.226 normal
SPY / TNX -0.354 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.476 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.88
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,074,508.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,455,069.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.8B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $761.56)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.80%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.67
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,856B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,023B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,464 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.0 (vs 20d avg 128.27, +2.1Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $63.74/bbl (vs 20d avg 58.05, +2.0Οƒ), floor $35.00/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +4.6B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 51%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~292h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.55%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.4% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (25):

[1] Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation climbed from previous -0.03% to 0.01% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-fipes-ipc-inflation-climbed-from-previous-003-to-001-in-august-202609020800 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:00:17 GMT

[2] The rise of Oil prices overspills to other markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-rise-of-oil-prices-overspills-to-other-markets-202609020755 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:55:58 GMT

[3] Australian Dollar surges to two-month highs as the RBNZ sinks the New Zealand Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-surges-to-two-month-highs-as-the-rbnz-sinks-the-new-zealand-dollar-202609020754 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:54:35 GMT

[4] Indonesian Rupiah declines as US Dollar gains on Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-declines-as-us-dollar-gains-on-fed-rate-hike-bets-202609020747 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:47:36 GMT

[5] Indian Rupee: Stronger growth justifies extended RBI tightening - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-stronger-growth-justifies-extended-rbi-tightening-societe-generale-202609020743 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:43:04 GMT

[6] Forex Today: Risk aversion grips markets as tensions in Mideast escalate further URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-risk-aversion-grips-markets-as-tensions-in-mideast-escalate-further-202609020731 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:31:15 GMT

[7] Australian Dollar: Pullback toward 0.7120 favoured against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-pullback-toward-07120-favoured-against-us-dollar-uob-202609020726 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:26:29 GMT

[8] Euro tumbles against Japanese Yen amid fears of another US-Japan joint intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-tumbles-against-japanese-yen-amid-fears-of-another-us-japan-joint-intervention-202609020720 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:20:28 GMT

[9] Japanese Yen: Intervention risk may revive tactical longs - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-risk-may-revive-tactical-longs-bny-202609020715 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:15:58 GMT

[10] Oil and bonds front and centre URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-and-bonds-front-and-centre-202609020705 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:05:23 GMT

[11] Spain Unemployment Change above forecasts (15.4K) in August: Actual (44.419K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-unemployment-change-above-forecasts-154k-in-august-actual-44419k-202609020700 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:00:37 GMT

[12] EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro pulls back from the top of a triangle pattern URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-forecast-euro-pulls-back-from-the-top-of-a-triangle-pattern-202609020659 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:59:00 GMT

[13] Equities: Global stocks extend declines as yields rise - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-global-stocks-extend-declines-as-yields-rise-deutsche-bank-202609020654 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:54:32 GMT

[14] France Budget Balance fell from previous €-106.8B to €-145.91B in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-budget-balance-fell-from-previous-eur-1068b-to-eur-14591b-in-july-202609020645 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:45:12 GMT

[15] Brent: Geopolitical risk keeps cracks elevated - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-geopolitical-risk-keeps-cracks-elevated-ing-202609020639 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:39:34 GMT

[16] Risk sentiment under pressure as Oil breaks higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/risk-sentiment-under-pressure-as-oil-breaks-higher-202609020636 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:36:55 GMT

[17] The commodities feed: Middle East escalation pushes energy prices higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-commodities-feed-middle-east-escalation-pushes-energy-prices-higher-202609020634 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:34:40 GMT

[18] Compared to estimates, Dell Technologies (DELL) Q2 earnings: A look at key metrics URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/compared-to-estimates-dell-technologies-dell-q2-earnings-a-look-at-key-metrics-202609020631 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:31:21 GMT

[19] US Dollar: August inflation key to September Fed decision - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-august-inflation-key-to-september-fed-decision-commerzbank-202609020630 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:30:15 GMT

[20] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds to near $64, US private labor data awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-rebounds-to-near-64-us-private-labor-data-awaited-202609020622 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:22:07 GMT

[21] British Pound: Downside risk toward 1.3480 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-downside-risk-toward-13480-against-us-dollar-uob-202609020619 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:19:47 GMT

[22] Higher rates are back: The winners and losers of 5% bond yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/higher-rates-are-back-the-winners-and-losers-of-5-bond-yields-202609020619 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:19:37 GMT

[23] Euro: Pressured as ECB hike looms - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-pressured-as-ecb-hike-looms-danske-bank-202609020612 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:12:13 GMT

[24] ECB's Nagel: Markets see over 95% probability of a September rate hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-nagel-markets-see-over-95-probability-of-a-september-rate-hike-202609020608 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:08:20 GMT

[25] Norway Current Account up to 279.01B in 2Q from previous 266.83B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-current-account-up-to-27901b-in-2q-from-previous-26683b-202609020600 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:00:57 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] Iran arrests person over online support for government opponents Time: 2026-09-02T07:48:02.982Z

[2] Israel prepared to strike Iran if attacked during Jewish holidays, Katz says Time: 2026-09-02T07:39:33.151Z

[3] Qatar urges immediate halt to regional attacks, return to negotiations Time: 2026-09-02T07:29:13.454Z

[4] Egypt condemns Iranian attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan Time: 2026-09-02T07:25:32.806Z

[5] Ghalibaf accuses US, Israel of killing children in attacks on Iran Time: 2026-09-02T07:23:12.907Z

[6] Four Revolutionary Guards aerospace personnel killed in US strike, Iran says Time: 2026-09-02T07:17:59.814Z

[7] Three Basij members killed in US attack on Iran's Lavan Island, official says Time: 2026-09-02T07:10:30.815Z

[8] Pakistan says dialogue still possible despite US-Iran escalation Time: 2026-09-02T07:00:04.039Z

[9] Kuwait contains fire after Iranian drone strike on residential complex Time: 2026-09-02T06:18:03.233Z

[10] Huckabee says Iran-backed Hezbollah obstructs Israel-Lebanon talks Time: 2026-09-02T06:07:53.179Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 186 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 9 of 60 normal daily β€” 15.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 17.5% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 437
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 58.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost